Ringside · Post-Bell · August 20
- Walmart tumbled 9.15%, its 2.6% American comparable result the softest since 2020.
- Claims at 206,000 and a 47.4 Philadelphia Fed reading pushed the ten-year back to 4.696%.
- October crude settled at $86.83, up 2.9%, after Trump threatened to wreck Iran's economy.
Indexes
The relief the Treasury bought on Wednesday lasted exactly one session. Two releases at 8:30 a.m. Eastern did the reversing: initial claims of 206,000 where 210,000 was expected, and a Philadelphia Fed factory survey at 47.4 against a forecast of 24.1, which carried the ten-year yield back to 4.696% and the thirty-year to 5.237%. Walmart supplied the equity half of the problem an hour and a half earlier, reporting American comparable sales of 2.6% when analysts wanted 3.8%, the company's slowest domestic growth since 2020. Its 9.15% fall was the deepest of any member of a Dow that lost 703.84 points, though Goldman Sachs took more index points out on a smaller percentage. Selling was orderly, not frightened: the Dow opened at its session high of 53,381.22 and finished at 52,759.21, four points off the low, while the S&P 500 ended at 7,641.16, two points above its own. Where the damage landed gives the session its character. Only energy and real estate closed higher, and the three worst sectors were health care, consumer discretionary and staples, which is a consumer-and-giveback story rather than a broad retreat from risk.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Range | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,641.16 | -0.87% | 7,639.01 - 7,699.96 | Closed two points off the low |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,067.17 | -1.00% | 26,023.12 - 26,263.47 | |
| Dow Jones | 52,759.21 | -1.32% | 52,754.90 - 53,381.22 | Opened at the high, never recovered |
| Russell 2000 | 2,992.43 | -1.34% | 2,989.22 - 3,019.30 | Back under 3,000 |
| VIX | 16.01 | +7.52% | Second time above 16 in August |
Sector Heat Map
Eleven sectors, two of them green, and the bottom three split between the household and Wednesday's biotech giveback.
| Sector | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +0.27% | Crude's settlement carried it |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.20% | |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.19% | Fertilizer names offset the rest |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.29% | Chips steadied after two down days |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.57% | |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.57% | |
| Financials (XLF) | -0.92% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | -1.20% | Boeing lost its 200-day |
| Staples (XLP) | -1.41% | Mass-market grocery did the damage |
| Discretionary (XLY) | -1.61% | |
| Health Care (XLV) | -1.87% | Gave back Wednesday's melanoma rally |
Health care's decline is Wednesday's biotech rally coming back out, while staples and discretionary carried the retail reports. Utilities and technology sat mid-table, which is where they belong on a day driven by earnings reactions and a curve that reversed.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The curve steepened the hard way, with the long end giving back Wednesday's rally while the front end stayed where it has sat all month.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.19% | Wednesday's close; no fresh print |
| 5-Year | 4.387% | |
| 10-Year | 4.696% | Up 4.3 basis points on the data |
| 30-Year | 5.237% | Half of Wednesday's decline retraced |
| Contract | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Oct) | $86.83 | +2.9% | September expired at $87.83 |
| Brent crude (Oct) | $93.78 | +2.4% | Highest in almost a month |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,575.10 | +0.66% | Recovered a slide to $4,506.00 |
| Natural gas | $2.764 | -0.90% | |
| Dollar Index | 98.88 | +0.07% | |
| USD/JPY | 159.07 | +0.57% |
Both crude benchmarks above are exchange settlements taken from the Bloomberg oil wire, not a screen quote pulled after the equity close; the gold and gas lines are December and front-month futures at the 4:00 p.m. Eastern close. September's WTI contract expired Thursday at $87.83, which is why several feeds showed a price a dollar above the October figure. Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates told Bloomberg the threat of economic warfare against Iran is justifiably read as an escalation. A near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the route for a fifth of the world's oil, now looks further off than it did a week ago.
Technicals
Closing at 7,641.16 keeps the broad benchmark barely on the right side of its 20-day average at 7,627.24, a margin of 0.18%, with the 50-day at 7,526.46 still 1.52% below. The 100-name index did lose its own 50-day, finishing at 29,213.16 against 29,329.46, its first close beneath that line since August 6. Small caps gave up 3,000, the Russell 2000 at 2,992.43 sitting 0.27% under a 20-day of 3,000.53, and the Dow is 0.84% below its 20-day at 53,204.49, the poorest position of the four. The ten-year held a 4.674% to 4.714% band and closed above the midpoint, so Wednesday's buyback bid never reappeared.
Deere's hourly bars are below, and the opening gap was not the whole story.
Breakouts
Deere (DE) closed at $620.94, clearing its 20-day of $612.10 and its 50-day of $602.47 in one move, with the 52-week high at $674.19 another 8.6% away and no resistance in between. Coinbase (COIN) at $172.35 finished 9.2% above its 50-day of $157.86 and 11.6% above its 20-day of $154.39, having spent almost all of August under both; the 200-day at $199.25 sits 15.6% higher and is the real test.
Breakdowns
Home Depot (HD) closed at $334.49, beneath its 20-day of $342.35, its 50-day of $339.54 and its 200-day of $346.49, with nothing structural until the one-year low at $289.10. Boeing (BA) gave up its 200-day at $219.47, closing at $215.10 after a 3.20% decline, with its 50-day of $221.77 now overhead.
Top Movers
Gainers
Deere (DE), +6.94% to $620.94. Buyers did not hold the whole thing: the stock reached $639.00 late in the morning before surrendering a third of the advance into the close. What they were paying for was a $5.10 quarter on $12.61 billion of revenue against a modelled range topping out at $4.72, with construction and forestry net sales up 18% to $3.62 billion carrying an agriculture division that fell 6%. The full-year net income floor rose to $4.75 billion from $4.5 billion with the ceiling left at $5.0 billion, a narrower revision than the share reaction implies.
Coinbase (COIN), +7.58% to $172.35. The exchange rose alongside a bitcoin squeeze that lifted the coin above $72,000, with chief executive Brian Armstrong at the White House the same afternoon for a meeting on the Clarity Act. Its revenue remains a function of trading volume rather than legislation.
CF Industries (CF), +5.61% to $125.70. Global nitrogen supply has tightened as the Middle East conflict constrains both feedstock gas and export volumes, and the fertilizer producer is among the most direct beneficiaries. A 20% dividend increase to 60 cents a share and a supportive Zacks estimate revision added to the day.
Strategy (MSTR), +7.81% to $112.39. The largest corporate holder of bitcoin moved with the coin, as it does.
Losers
Walmart (WMT), -9.15% to $103.84. The quarter beat where the models look first: adjusted earnings of 81 cents against a 74-cent consensus, revenue of $187.9 billion up 5.9%, e-commerce up 23%, and full-year guidance raised to $2.80 to $2.87. None of that mattered next to a 2.6% American comparable-sales figure carrying a 0.8 percentage point headwind from health and wellness, where federal price caps on certain drugs took effect. Average ticket grew 1.1% against 3.1% a year ago, and Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management told Reuters the report reads for the consumer economy the way an Nvidia slowdown would for chips.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP), -24.55% to $42.39. Revenue held at $2.0 billion year on year against $2.04 billion expected, a 1.9% miss, and while adjusted earnings of $1.03 cleared an 81-cent estimate, $0.31 of that came from $26 million of tariff refunds that will not repeat. Full-year guidance went up to $2.60 to $3.30 from $2.40 to $3.10. Management blamed tighter household budgets among do-it-yourself customers, the same consumer the morning's grocery report described, and the shares closed at their lowest since January 20, 19.4% below the 200-day average.
Moderna (MRNA), -23.55% to $133.32. Wednesday's 176.97% gain on Phase 3 melanoma results was the largest single-day advance in the company's history, and roughly a quarter of the stock's value came back out on Thursday with no new information. It still trades 96% above its 20-day average.
Key Macro Data Today
Everything that mattered arrived at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and both readings landed on the strong side.
| Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims (wk. Aug 15) | 210,000 | — | 206,000 |
| Continuing claims | — | — | 1.799M |
| Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (Aug) | 24.1 | 41.4 | 47.4 |
A Philadelphia Fed reading 23 points above consensus is not a rounding error, and it is now hard to argue factory activity is rolling over. That is a problem for anyone hoping the long end settles down before Jackson Hole.
Notable Earnings This Session
Seven names before the opening bell and one after it, which was the better half of the slate.
Pre-Open
Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), NetEase (NTES), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Coty (COTY) and Wolfspeed (WOLF). Alibaba shook off its profit miss to close up 1.26% at $130.53; Coty fell 9.24% after missing estimates and declining to give fiscal 2027 guidance.
Post-Close
Ross Stores (ROST) closed at $228.99, down 2.43%, reported at 4:01 p.m. Eastern and traded to $245.01 after hours, up 6.99%. Earnings of $2.66 a share, including about 60 cents from tariff refunds, landed against a $1.92 consensus and the company's own $1.85 to $1.93 guidance. Sales rose 13% to $6.26 billion, same-store sales gained 10% on traffic, and the full-year forecast went to $8.61 to $8.77.
Drivers
- Flash purchasing managers' surveys arrive at 9:45 a.m. Eastern as the week's third factory reading. Two have already surprised to the upside, and the manufacturing component is the one that matters: a third strong result would leave the long end of the curve without a reason to retrace anything before Jackson Hole.
- Off-price retail has a clean test in front of it. Ross Stores put up a 10% same-store quarter hours after the largest grocer in the country posted 2.6%, which suggests the trade-down shopper is alive and buying somewhere cheaper. Strip out the $253 million tariff refund and the operating margin still expanded 205 basis points against a plan of 130 to 150, so the quarter holds up without the windfall. Whether the rest of the group can say the same is Friday's business.
- The Kansas City Fed's symposium runs August 27 to 29 and Chair Kevin Warsh gives the keynote on Friday the 28th, which leaves five sessions for positioning. The thirty-year at 5.237% sits 4.8 basis points below Tuesday's close of 5.285%.