Indexes

A weekend agreement to end the Iran war turned the first session of a holiday-shortened week into a broad rally, sending the Dow to a record close and the Nasdaq up more than 3% as money rushed back into technology.

Leadership came from the largest technology names, which carried the Nasdaq 100 back above the level it had circled for a week. Small caps lagged, an unusual look on a day the Dow set a record.

Sector Heat Map

Money came out of the energy producers that had led during the war and rotated into growth and anything that burns fuel, the inverse of last week's defensive crouch.

Technology and consumer discretionary led, the defensives that investors hid in last week slipped, and energy fell more than 3% on the collapse in crude, a clean risk-on pattern with one obvious bill to pay.

In the News

Drivers

1. The Federal Reserve. The two-day meeting opens Tuesday, the first gathering with Kevin Warsh in the chair, and a hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% range is all but certain at 98% on Polymarket. That makes the decision a non-event and the projections the real release: the new dot plot lands Wednesday afternoon, and futures markets now lean toward a hike as the next move rather than a cut. Warsh has spent years criticizing forward guidance; will his first projections keep the dot plot at all?

2. Retail sales before the decision. May retail sales arrive Wednesday at 8:30 AM Eastern, a few hours ahead of the Fed, giving the morning a read on whether households kept spending as gasoline prices eased. A soft number would reinforce the disinflation case the oil move is already making.

3. A holiday-shortened week. Quarterly options expiration falls Thursday and the market is closed Friday for Juneteenth, so thin liquidity can stretch moves in either direction into the break.

SPY, daily: reclaiming the 20-day with the early-June record within reach.

QQQ, daily: the Nasdaq 100 reclaims the spring range in a single session.

Newmont, daily: the gold miners track bullion to a third straight gain.

Freeport-McMoRan, daily: a clean push through the top of the spring range toward the 52-week high.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Bonds and stocks rose together again, the disinflation impulse from cheaper oil outweighing the risk-on surge in equities.

The two-year is the latest FRED constant-maturity reading; the gap between it and the ten-year held near 43 basis points, leaving the curve's shape close to where it sat Friday.

Crude gapped lower at the open and kept sliding toward $80 before buyers stepped in, leaving WTI down 3.6% on the day but above its worst level since March; with the actual signing not due until Friday, traders booked the move rather than press it. Gold went the other way, climbing a third straight session to $4,333 as a softer dollar, not haven demand, did the work, per Trading Economics.

Technicals

The major averages spent the session repairing the prior week's damage. The S&P 500 closed at 7,554, comfortably back over its 20-day line around 7,470, with the June 2 record at 7,609.78 overhead and that line the first support beneath it. The Nasdaq 100 reclaimed its own 20-day, recovering the spring range it had slipped out of. The ten-year yield at 4.47% slipped toward its 50-day average near 4.42%; a close below that average on the oil-led disinflation would put the May lows back in view. The session's defining single-stock move came on the downside, in energy, where Exxon Mobil broke an early-June floor and is charted by the hour below.

Exxon Mobil, hourly: the largest US producer spent the session under steady pressure, closing beneath the early-June low that had held for two weeks.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed at $84.07, a fresh 52-week high a hair above the prior peak at $83.83, with cheaper jet fuel the tailwind and $85 the next level.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) extended Friday's move out of its May range, closing at $70.13 with the 52-week high at $71.72 the only marker left overhead.

Breakdowns

Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost the early-June low at $143.60 that had marked the floor for two weeks; the next shelf is the spring low near $134.

Chevron (CVX) closed at $180.40, back below its 50-day average near $193, which opens the low $180s and then the spring low.

Top Movers

The session's biggest moves split cleanly along the oil trade, with one enormous exception trading on its own story.

Gainers

SpaceX (SPCX) climbed 19.6% to $192.50, extending a debut that already ranks as the largest US listing on record. Monday's catalyst was ownership: the Wall Street Journal reported that Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart had taken a stake of more than $1 billion through her Hancock Prospecting, and Cathie Wood's ARK disclosed it bought $444 million of stock on Friday's IPO day, selling Tesla and AMD to fund it, per Seeking Alpha. The buying says the scarcity that drove the offering has not faded, with institutions that missed the deal paying up in the aftermarket even at a market value above $2 trillion. The float remains tiny relative to demand, which makes the move as much about supply as about rockets. The next test is how the stock trades once forced index-inclusion buying is no longer the marginal bid.

Royal Caribbean (RCL) gained 6.6% to $313.67 as the cruise lines priced in cheaper fuel and a calmer backdrop; bunker fuel is one of the industry's largest variable costs, so a drop in crude flows straight to forward margins.

Newmont (NEM) rose 5.5% to $105.80, leading the gold miners as bullion advanced for a third day. The driver was the weaker dollar rather than fear, the counterintuitive part of a session built on a peace deal: the metal rose on the very news that should drain its haven bid.

United Airlines (UAL) added 3.9% to $119.97, clearing the $117.53 that had capped it in the spring as the carriers rode the same fuel relief.

Losers

Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell 4.1% to $140.92, the largest single drag on the Dow, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drained the premium crude had built during the war. The selling ran across the patch, with the broad energy sector down more than 3%. With production undisrupted and the geopolitical bid gone, the producers handed back what six weeks of escalation had given them.

Occidental (OXY) dropped 3.5% to $54.46, the hardest hit of the large producers given its leverage to the oil price.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) slipped 1.8% to $530.36 as the defense names returned the bid that escalation handed them. The F-35 backlog runs for years and a single signing does not reset it, but the near-term catalyst is gone; the group that spent the spring pricing a wider war spent Monday pricing its end.

Key Macro Data Today

A single release crossed the wire, and it landed soft.

The New York Fed's factory gauge fell almost fourteen points from May, its weakest reading since winter and a wide miss against the 13.2 economists expected, per the New York Fed. On its own it changes nothing about Wednesday's near-certain hold, but it is the first hint that the manufacturing bounce of late spring may have been a one-month affair.

Notable Earnings This Session

Quiet on both ends of the session.

Pre-Open

Nothing of size reported before the opening bell.

Post-Close

The evening was quiet too, leaving Thursday's reports from Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR) as the week's next test before the Juneteenth close.

What Drove the Tape

Monday's rally rested on a single geopolitical headline and a single extraordinary stock, and only the first was about the economy. President Trump's declaration that the Iran war is over, with a signing set for Friday in Switzerland per the Associated Press, sent crude lower and risk appetite higher, carrying the Dow to a record and the Nasdaq Composite up more than 3%. Technology and the fuel-sensitive groups led, while energy was the one sector to fall as the Strait of Hormuz moved toward reopening. SpaceX supplied the other engine, adding almost 20% on news of fresh marquee investors and pulling the entire new-listing conversation along with it. Underneath, the soft factory reading and the cheaper oil both argued for cooler inflation, nudging Treasury yields down a touch even as equities surged, and the VIX closed under 16.5, its lowest in weeks. For all the noise, this was a market doing what a relief rally looks like: selling protection, buying growth, and trusting that Friday's signature actually arrives.