Indexes

A weekend peace agreement between Washington and Tehran has turned the open into a buying day, with the contracts most exposed to growth and least exposed to oil out in front and the Dow held back by its energy and defense names.

The relief ran through Asia overnight and into Europe, where exporters and travel shares are leading and oil producers are not.

In the News

Drivers

1. The Monday gap and what is not yet in the price. Futures up more than 1% and crude down 5% say the market has moved a long way on a deal that does not get a signature until Friday, with the details and Iran's own ratification still ahead. Positioning is now long equities and short oil into a holiday-shortened week, and the cost of any hitch between here and Switzerland concentrates in a thin open. This is a market that has moved more on weekend headlines than on data for two weeks running, and the gap is large enough that a single contrary wire could erase a chunk of it before lunch.

2. Retail sales, then the projections. May retail sales land at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday, hours before the 2:00 PM decision, so the morning print frames the afternoon. A hold is all but locked, which leaves the new dot plot and Warsh's first press conference to carry the information, and futures now lean toward a hike rather than a cut as the next move. Warsh has spent years criticizing forward guidance: will the dot plot survive his first meeting?

3. A compressed week. Today brings the Empire State reading, Thursday brings quarterly options expiration, and Friday the market is closed for Juneteenth, so the thin liquidity that amplifies this morning's gap runs in both directions all week.

SPY daily: Friday's hold above the 50-day sets up a gap toward the 20-day.

QQQ daily: the futures gap lifts the Nasdaq 100 back off its 20-day average.

USO daily: crude's fifth down session in six takes oil to a three-month low.

Delta daily: cheaper fuel presses the stock against its 52-week high.

Newmont daily: the gold miners ride bullion's push to new highs on a softer dollar.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Stocks and bonds are rising together, an unusual pairing that says the oil move matters more to rate markets this morning than the risk-on tone in equities.

The dollar index slipped to 99.54, a ten-day low, with the euro firmer at 1.1616, and that softer dollar rather than fading conflict fear is what lifted metals: gold rose 2.8% in the front contract to $4,353.70 and silver added more than 4%, per CNBC. The 10-year yield enters the week at Friday's 4.49% close and is bid lower in early trade as the crude drop revives the case that inflation keeps cooling. Each commodity quote here was searched fresh against this morning's price pull rather than carried over from Friday.

Technicals

The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,431.46, a touch under its 20-day average near 7,466 and well clear of the 50-day at 7,248; the June 2 record of 7,609.78 marks the ceiling, and this morning's gap aims the index back at that 20-day line. On the Nasdaq side, the 100 closed right on its 20-day at 29,635.95, so futures pointing 2% higher would carry it back toward the top of the spring range. Yields tell the quieter story: the 10-year at 4.49% sits between its 50-day at 4.42% and its 20-day at 4.52%, and a sustained push under 4.42% on the oil-led disinflation would put the May lows back in play. Energy supplies the morning's defining chart, with Exxon dragging the producers lower and shown by the hour below.

Exxon, hourly: the slide steepens as crude gives back roughly 5% on the agreement.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

United Airlines (UAL) — at $115.52, sits above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, with $117.53 the level that capped the stock in the spring and the only marker left overhead. Cheaper jet fuel is the tailwind, and the chart is less stretched than Delta's.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) — closed Friday at $83.06, a dollar shy of its 52-week high at $83.83, and trades above every major moving average. Premarket fuel relief is pressing it toward fresh highs, with $85 the next marker.

Breakdowns

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — closed Friday at $147.01, stuck below the moving-average band around $151 that has capped it since the strikes began, and premarket selling now aims at the early-June low near $143.60. A loss of that level points the largest US producer lower still.

Chevron (CVX) — at $187.22, trades under its 50-day average near $193, and a premarket drop of more than 2% pushes it into the low $180s. The spring low becomes the next support if crude keeps sliding.

Top Movers

Gainers

SpaceX (SPCX) is up 5.3% premarket at $169.48, extending Friday's 19% debut, after The Wall Street Journal reported that Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting took a stake of more than $1 billion in the offering. Rinehart confirmed an allocation without naming a figure, calling it "a significant investment." The move says the scarcity that drove the listing has not faded: large institutions that missed the deal are still paying up in the aftermarket, and the next test is how the stock trades once index-inclusion buying is no longer the marginal bid.

Carnival (CCL) is up about 4% premarket near $30.30 as the cruise lines price in cheaper fuel and a calmer geopolitical backdrop. Fuel is one of the industry's largest variable costs, so a 5% drop in crude flows quickly to forward margins, and Royal Caribbean and Norwegian are higher alongside it. The same logic carries to anything that burns jet fuel or bunker oil, which is why the airlines fill the breakout list this morning.

Newmont (NEM) is up about 3% premarket near $103 as the gold miners track bullion to fresh highs. The driver is a softer dollar at a ten-day low rather than haven buying, which is the counterintuitive part: gold is rising on the very deal that should drain the fear bid, because a weaker dollar makes the metal cheaper everywhere else.

Losers

Occidental (OXY) is down about 3% premarket near $54.80, the hardest hit of the large-cap producers because it carries the most leverage to the oil price. The selling runs across the patch, with APA and Devon Energy off more than 3.5% and EOG Resources and Marathon lower by roughly 3%, per Reuters, as the reopening of Hormuz drains the premium that crude built during the conflict.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is down about 1.5% premarket near $532 as the defense group gives back the bid that escalation handed it. The F-35 backlog runs for years and does not reset on one headline, but a signed peace removes the near-term catalyst, and Lockheed already sits roughly 25% below its 2026 high.

RTX (RTX) slips about 0.4% premarket, the most missile-restock-exposed of the prime contractors and therefore the one analysts flag as most sensitive to a durable ceasefire.

Macro Calendar

The New York Fed's factory gauge is the only first-tier release today, and a soft reading would fit the disinflation story the oil move is telling without changing the near-certain hold on Wednesday. The week's weight sits later: May retail sales Wednesday morning, the Fed decision that afternoon, and quarterly options expiration Thursday before the holiday close.

Earnings Today

No S&P 500 company is scheduled to report in either session today. The next results of note arrive Thursday, when Kroger (KR) and Accenture (ACN) both report ahead of the Juneteenth close, leaving the session to the agreement, the data, and the rotation they are forcing.