Indexes

Futures are quiet ahead of the Federal Reserve's afternoon decision, a fitting open for a market that has spent two weeks trading geopolitics and is now made to wait on policy. The contracts sit a touch below Tuesday's close, with the Nasdaq 100 the lone gainer by a whisker.

Tuesday's session split the market: the Dow closed at a record 51,999.67, up 0.64%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.15% to 26,376.34 and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.89% as the large technology names did the damage. The S&P 500 landed in between at 7,511.35, off 0.57%, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.87%. Overseas, the mood was firmer overnight after the Bank of Japan's rate increase.

In the News

Drivers

1. The decision, the dots, and a new voice. The Federal Reserve's announcement lands at 1:00 PM CT, and a hold at 3.50% to 3.75% is all but locked, with markets pricing roughly a 97% chance of no move. The weight falls on the refreshed projections and on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as chair: after May inflation at 4.2%, the dot plot is expected to erase the lone cut still penciled in for this year, and the number of officials leaning toward hikes will set the tone. Warsh has spent years arguing the central bank says too much, so will his debut press conference be the short one the market is bracing for?

2. Oil into Friday's signature. Crude steadied this morning but holds near three-month lows ahead of the expected US-Iran memorandum, and the cross-current runs through the whole market. Cheaper oil and the softer yields it drags along are the engine behind the homebuilder and airline bids, while the energy producers pay for the same move. A signed deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would extend both sides of that trade.

3. The chips as the signal. Tuesday's 1.9% drop in the Nasdaq 100 came as the semiconductors again failed to reclaim the ground lost in Broadcom's June 5 guidance shock. Whether the group steadies through the afternoon decision says more about the market's appetite for risk than any single data point will.

SPY daily: the S&P holds above its 20-day with the June 2 record overhead.

QQQ daily: Tuesday's drop pulled the Nasdaq 100 back toward its 20-day line.

XHB daily: the homebuilders break higher as the rate-relief trade returns.

Exxon daily: the producer loses its early-June support as crude probes new lows.

Nvidia daily: relative strength holds the leader above the $200 mark.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Treasuries firmed and the long end led, an early vote that the bond market expects today's projections to lean toward patience rather than cuts. Yields eased a few basis points across the curve from Tuesday's close.

Crude found a small bid this morning, with West Texas Intermediate back near $75.54 and Brent at $79.13 after a four-session slide tied to the coming Iran agreement. The steadier oil did little to lift the dollar, which sits at 99.61, just shy of the 100 mark, with the euro near 1.16 and the yen at 160 after the Bank of Japan's move. Gold held near $4,351 even as fear premiums drained, the metal leaning on a soft dollar more than on haven demand. The oil, gold and gas levels above come from a live quote taken this morning, not a number held over from the prior session.

Technicals

Beneath the noise, the benchmarks are holding their key levels. The S&P 500, last at 7,511, sits above its 20-day average near 7,475 and well over its 50-day around 7,260, with the June 2 high of 7,609.78 roughly 1.3% above as the next hurdle. The Nasdaq 100 at 29,968 surrendered part of its rebound Tuesday yet stays above its 20-day near 29,650, the marker bulls need to hold. Rates are the subtler signal: the 10-year at 4.43% is pinned to its 50-day near 4.42%, and a decisive move under that line would reopen the spring lows, with 4.55% the cap on the current range. The homebuilders provide the chart that matters most this morning, and D.R. Horton's hourly move appears just beneath.

D.R. Horton, hourly: the homebuilder pushes out of its early-June range as rate-cut hopes return.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

D.R. Horton (DHI) — at $156.33 after Tuesday's 3.7% jump, the homebuilder has cleared the $146 to $155 range that contained it through early June and trades above its major moving averages. The Wall Street consensus target near $165 is the next marker, with the 52-week high at $184.55 the longer reach.

Nvidia (NVDA) — relative strength is the story: NVDA barely budged at $207.41 while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9% on Tuesday, refusing to follow the group lower. Holding above the $200 line keeps the chip leader constructive and offers the broader semiconductor complex a floor to lean on.

Breakdowns

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — at $141.86, the largest US producer has now slipped under the early-June low near $143.60 that marked support, pressed by crude's run to a three-month low. Friday's expected Iran signing is the test of whether the slide extends toward the spring lows.

Broadcom (AVGO) — at $376.71, the stock still trades below where it stood before its June 5 guidance disappointment and has yet to reclaim that gap. A failure to recapture the pre-shock level keeps the AI-networking leader on the back foot and weighs on its peers.

Top Movers

Gainers

D.R. Horton (DHI) enters the session at $156.33 after climbing 3.7% Tuesday, the standout in a homebuilder group catching a strong bid. The driver is the rate-relief trade: the prospect of an Iran deal has pulled oil and Treasury yields lower together, and cheaper energy plus softer mortgage rates would put real money back in the pockets of stretched buyers. The caution sits one name over, where Lennar cut its full-year delivery target last week to 82,000 to 83,000 homes, a reminder that the affordability squeeze the group is pricing its way out of has not lifted yet.

PulteGroup (PHM) rose 1.43% to $124.76 on the same housing-affordability logic, riding the move in rates rather than any company news.

United Airlines (UAL) added 0.42% to $118.51 as the slide in crude flowed straight to forward fuel costs, the single largest variable expense the carriers carry. The move nudged the stock above the $117.53 level that capped it this spring, and the rest of the group firmed alongside it.

Losers

Intel (INTC) slipped 1.17% to $117.05 as traders booked profits after a powerful run, the kind of give-back that follows a stock which has outpaced its sector. Nothing in the session pointed to fresh company news; the selling looked like position-trimming into an event-heavy session. The read for the group is mild, since a pullback in the strongest name says more about positioning than about demand.

Micron (MU) fell 1.27% to $1,020.76, the weakest of the large chipmakers, as the memory maker drifts lower ahead of its own results later this month. The sector is still digesting Broadcom's June 5 warning, and Micron's print will be read as a check on whether AI demand is broadening beyond the handful of names that have carried it.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) eased 0.68% to $507.29, sliding with the rest of the semiconductor group on a risk-light day.

Macro Calendar

The decision is the only first-tier event, and the rate itself is close to a foregone conclusion at a hold; the information lives in the new dot plot and the chair's tone. With May inflation running at 4.2%, the projections are widely expected to drop the single 2026 cut that survived March, and a handful of officials may even sketch hikes. The weak May housing data released this week, with starts running at a 1.177 million annual pace and permits at 1.413 million, is the backdrop for the homebuilder trade and a quiet argument that higher-for-longer is already biting construction.

Earnings Today

The reporting calendar is bare in the mid-June lull between seasons, with no S&P 500 company of note in either session. That leaves the floor entirely to the Fed, with the next marquee results, Micron and the late-June homebuilders among them, still a week or more out.