Canterbury Snow Outlook

The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.

Issued Monday 13 July 2026, 07:58 NZST · Outlook period next 14 days

The next two weeks are largely settled for snow — Saturday is the one day worth keeping an eye on.

Tomorrow through Friday shows nothing of note, and the back half of the window is equally flat. Saturday stands alone as the only day the guidance has flagged, and it is worth being upfront about the scale: this is a low chance, sitting around 13–16% across both the hills and the plains. That is the minority outcome, not a looming event — but it is consistent enough across recent runs to earn a mention.

The signal has been stable over the last several runs rather than building or fading, which at this range is neither reassuring nor alarming — just honest uncertainty. If Saturday does deliver, it would be a relatively broad event given the plains signal matches the hills, but at these odds most runs see nothing at all.

Everything else in the window — Sunday through Tuesday (28th) — is background noise. Saturday is the only thing showing.

The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 20 July, or sooner if the picture changes. If a snow event moves within three days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture.