The Vigilant // SITREP Index 55 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 55 (Elevated), -2 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 55 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH North Korea says it tested submarine-launched cruise missiles, KCNA says — Reuters
HIGH Second Amendment Rights Forfeited by Past Terroristic Threats Conviction — Volokh
HIGH Nord Stream may have been lawful target, argue lawyers for Ukrainian accused of bombing — France24
HIGH US lifts sanctions on Venezuela’s top legislator — AlJazeera
HIGH EU Disburses Another €2.86B to Cover Ukraine’s ‘Most Urgent Needs’ – Drones and Missiles — KyivPost
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ Iran | -9 | 47.9 (-7.5) |
| ▲ United States | +5 | 75.3 (0) |
| ▲ Ukraine | +3 | 90.5 (0) |
| ▼ Russia | -3 | 74.7 (-1.5) |
| ▼ Israel | -3 | 32.8 (-1.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Ukraine | 90.5 | — 0 | 81 | 100 |
| United States | 75.3 | — 0 | 51 | 100 |
| Russia | 74.7 | ▼ -1.5 | 67 | 82 |
| India | 62.1 | ▲ +4 | 62 | 62 |
| Iran | 47.9 | ▼ -7.5 | 53 | 43 |
| Yemen | 46.7 | ▼ -4 | 50 | 43 |
| France | 45.3 | ▼ -2.5 | 72 | 19 |
| United Kingdom | 41 | ▼ -0.5 | 32 | 50 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.9 | ↑ +93.5% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↑ +5.6% |
| USA ↔ China | -1 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.2 | → 0% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 1.8 | ↓ -5.2% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 1.3 | ↑ +196.9% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -0.5% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -1.3% / QQQ -3.8% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +3.4% vs XLP +3.3% 20d |
| BTC Trend | NEUTRAL | BTC $81,444 · Mayer 1.13 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +12.4% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 62/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 769.6 | ▼1.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 728.95 | ▼1.97% |
| Dow Jones | 515.63 | ▼0.11% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 375.99 | ▼1.49% |
| Crude Oil | 153.56 | ▲0.31% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.53 | ▲3.18% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 81583 | ▼1.99% |
| Ethereum | 2418 | ▼3.24% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.21% | -0.03% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼2.98% | Finance ▼0.55% | Energy ▲0.64% |
| Health ▲2.53% | Consumer ▼0.77% | Industrial ▼0.97% |
| Staples ▲2.22% | Utilities ▼0.36% | Materials ▼0.1% |
| Real Est ▼0.81% | Comms ▼1.3% | Semis ▼3.98% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day good, night fair; 12‑10 m day fair, night poor. Best windows UTC 00‑06: 30‑20 m continuously, 80‑40 m after local sunset, 17‑15 m daylight hours, avoid 12‑10 m at night.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian numbers station, relevant given Russia’s moderate instability (index 74.7). SKYKING/EAM (US) monitors US military traffic amid domestic unrest over Starlink restrictions and related civilian impacts in Ukraine (Guardian). NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) provides allied utility traffic, useful as Europe faces protests in France and Albania (Euronews, France24). RWM (RU) time‑signal offers a reliable Russian reference point for timing analysis.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a high instability score for Russia and recent North Korean missile test report (Reuters/KP) indicating regional tension. US time‑signal and military broadcasts correspond to US index 75.3 and domestic reports on Starlink restrictions (Guardian). European stations such as NATO STANAG 4285 relate to France’s protest warnings (Euronews) and Albania’s violent protests (France24). No direct reporting ties to Chinese, Canadian, Irish, or Japanese VOLMET services.
MONITORING PLAN 3828 kHz 00‑06 UTC; 4445 kHz 00‑06 UTC; 6998 kHz 00‑06 UTC; 10000 kHz (WWV/WWVH/BPM/RWM) continuous; 8992 kHz 00‑06 UTC.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 123 | SUNSPOTS 60 | A-INDEX 12 | K-INDEX 3 | X-RAY B5.6 | WIND 524 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Good | Fair |
| 12m–10m | Fair | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 48d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | OpenAI — Partial System Degradation minor |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 33d · last update Oct 14 |
✓ Resolved since yesterday: Zoom
Internet Disruptions
| CABLE CUT | Uruguay regional Fiber optic cuts on ANTEL's (AS6057) national backbone caused a near-total loss of its HTTP request traffic in eastern Uruguay. · ANTEL Oct 13 19:00Z–00:00Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.9 | Earthquake — Fiji region |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 93 km NNW of Coquimbo, Chile |
| M5 | Earthquake — 98 km NW of Coquimbo, Chile |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone TWENTYNINE-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.158 million |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone SIMON-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 62 . |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ISAIAS-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.683 million . |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +8.1°F | -0.9mm |
| MODERATE | California cold | -5.4°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Albania protests turn violent as protestors demand PM Rama's resignation
GOVERNMENT Haiti sanctions renewed: Starving the gangs of bullets
DEFENSE & CONFLICT In Ukraine, civilian casualties were already rising. Restrictions on Starlink will only worse…
CYBER & SECURITY Ivanti patches Connect Secure zero-day after researchers confirm in-the-wild attacks
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Anthropic tells investors quarterly revenue up 50% to $16.8bn ahead of IPO
TECHNOLOGY Leap seconds face judgment day as time lords prepare to vote
Get realtime headlines at sitrepsentinel.com 24/7/365.
The Vigilant is an automated daily intelligence brief, powered by SITREP Sentinel — sitrepsentinel.com.