The Vigilant // SITREP Index 55 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 55 (Elevated), -1 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Tuesday, October 13, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 55 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL US trial begins for Rwandan-American accused of role in genocide — AlJazeera
HIGH Russian missile attack on Kyiv kills two, Zelenskiy says no warning received — Reuters
HIGH UK to Fast-Track Air Defense Missiles for Ukraine as Burnham Hosts Zelensky in London — KyivPost
HIGH Why U.S. Airstrikes Are Failing to Stop the Global Cocaine Boom — WSJ
HIGH Missiles intercepted near Riyadh after Saudi coalition hits Yemen fuel depot — BBC
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ Russia | -13 | 83.7 (0) |
| ▲ United States | +7 | 75.3 (0) |
| ▼ India | -2 | 52.1 (-2.5) |
| ▼ Ukraine | -1 | 74.6 (-0.5) |
| ▼ France | -1 | 57.8 (-0.5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 83.7 | — 0 | 67 | 100 |
| United States | 75.3 | — 0 | 51 | 100 |
| Ukraine | 74.6 | ▼ -0.5 | 81 | 68 |
| France | 57.8 | ▼ -0.5 | 72 | 44 |
| India | 52.1 | ▼ -2.5 | 62 | 42 |
| Yemen | 47.7 | ▼ -3.5 | 50 | 45 |
| Iran | 47.4 | ▼ -3.5 | 53 | 42 |
| United Kingdom | 42.5 | ▼ -2 | 32 | 53 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.8 | ↑ +94.6% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.3 | ↑ +5.7% |
| USA ↔ China | -1 | → 0% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.2 | → 0% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 1.8 | ↓ -6.2% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | 1.2 | ↑ +184.5% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 7/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | NORMAL | JPY 30d ROC -1.1% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +1.8% / QQQ -2.1% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ +5.5% vs XLP +0.6% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $83,183 · Mayer 1.15 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +3.5% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 57/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 778.01 | ▼0.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 743.57 | ▼0.33% |
| Dow Jones | 516.21 | ▼0.33% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 381.67 | ▼0.13% |
| Crude Oil | 153.09 | ▲1.36% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 16.02 | ▼0.12% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 83178 | ▲1.76% |
| Ethereum | 2499 | ▲2.19% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | +0.02% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼0.04% | Finance ▼0.42% | Energy ▲1.8% |
| Health ▼1.35% | Consumer ▲0.08% | Industrial ▼0.28% |
| Staples ▼0.26% | Utilities ▲0.58% | Materials ▲0.57% |
| Real Est ▼0.21% | Comms ▲0.74% | Semis ▼0.49% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m day and night good; 17‑15 m day good, night fair; 12‑10 m day fair, night poor. Best windows UTC 00‑06: 30‑20 m all night, 80‑40 m night, 17‑15 m early morning, 80‑40 m night for 12‑10 m is poor.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 (RU) remains a Russian domestic indicator; heightened relevance given Russia’s high instability index. SKYKING/EAM (US) reflects US military output amid ongoing US trial on genocide accusations. Radio Havana (CU) is notable as Cuba aligns with Russia’s index and may echo related narratives. NATO STANAG 4285 (BE) is useful for monitoring Western alliance communications in a context of UK fast‑tracking air‑defense aid to Ukraine. PLA HF Network (CN) is included though China’s index is moderate, no direct report ties.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russia’s 83.7 index aligns with the reported missile strike on Kyiv (Reuters). The United States, index 75.3, is linked to the domestic genocide trial (Al Jazeera) and CISA vulnerability additions (CISA). The United Kingdom’s 42.5 score connects to its fast‑track missile aid to Ukraine (KyivPost). No supplied reports involve Cuba, Belgium, or China directly.
MONITORING PLAN 4625 kHz UTC 00‑06; 8992 kHz UTC 00‑04; 10000 kHz (WWV/WWVH/BPM) UTC 00‑06; 6998 kHz UTC 02‑06; 8300 kHz UTC 01‑05.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 136 | SUNSPOTS 60 | A-INDEX 15 | K-INDEX 3 | X-RAY B6.4 | WIND 601 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Good | Fair |
| 12m–10m | Fair | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 47d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Failures From A Subset Of Network Subscribers In Australia To Twilio Australia Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 11 · ongoing 32d · last update Oct 13 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M6.8 | Earthquake — central Mid-Atlantic Ridge [TSUNAMI] |
| M6.7 | Earthquake — central Mid-Atlantic Ridge |
| M6 | Earthquake — 126 km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 122 km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 119 km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 119 km SSW of Gambiran Satu, Indonesia |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone TRUDY-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 22516 . |
| ORANGE | VO — Volcanic eruption is on going for Kanlaon in Philippines |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone SIMON-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 62 . |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone ISAIAS-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.683 million . |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +7.9°F | -1mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -6.3°F | -0.7mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Florida officials say six people dead from Hurricane Isaias
GOVERNMENT CISA Adds Two Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to Catalog
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Allies did not warn Kyiv of Russian ballistic missile strikes, says Zelenskyy
CYBER & SECURITY Ransomware Attacks Have Swept Japan. A.I. May Be Making Them Easier.
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Meta launches new ‘most capable’ AI models. Here’s what to know about them
TECHNOLOGY Cheap Chinese and open source LLMs could trigger trillion-dollar AI infrastructure 'reset'
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