The Vigilant // SITREP Index 63 Elevated · Escalating
SITREP Index 63 (Elevated), +1 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Thursday, September 10, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
HIGH From flower to fruit: A tug-of-war between growing tissues — PhysOrg
HIGH U.S. crude oil tops $100 again – last seen in May – as market braces for prolonged Iran war — CNBC
HIGH Moscow Claims Ukraine Planned to Start a War Between Russia and the U.K. — NYT
HIGH Iran war costs US households $860 more in higher energy prices, economist says — FoxBusiness
HIGH Trump’s Iran war now has a midterm election problem — AlJazeera
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ United Kingdom | -8 | 48.6 (-10) |
| ▲ Russia | +4 | 82 (+5) |
| ▲ Iran | +4 | 71.9 (+6.5) |
| ▼ United States | -3 | 83.8 (-1) |
| ▲ Ukraine | +2 | 77.2 (+4) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| United States | 83.8 | ▼ -1 | 70 | 98 |
| Russia | 82 | ▲ +5 | 88 | 76 |
| Ukraine | 77.2 | ▲ +4 | 85 | 69 |
| Iran | 71.9 | ▲ +6.5 | 68 | 76 |
| Yemen | 59.3 | ▲ +5 | 53 | 66 |
| India | 55.9 | — 0 | 86 | 26 |
| China | 55.6 | ▼ -1 | 50 | 61 |
| Israel | 49.2 | ▼ -1 | 51 | 47 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT - LOWEST READINESS · activity 0% · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Extreme Pizza | QUIET —% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET —% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET —% |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | QUIET —% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.1 | ↓ -67.7% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.4 | ↓ -10.7% |
| USA ↔ China | -0.2 | ↓ -158.5% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 0.7 | ↓ -42.5% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.5 | ↑ +27.4% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | -0.2 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 6/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | SQUEEZE | JPY 30d ROC -3.6% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC -3.4% / QQQ -0.1% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ -2.1% vs XLP -2.3% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $77,095 · Mayer 1.1 |
| Hash Rate | GROWING | +15.7% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 69/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 757.89 | ▼0.59% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 708.69 | ▼1.06% |
| Dow Jones | 520.75 | ▼0.63% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 396.36 | ▼1.73% |
| Crude Oil | 158.38 | ▲5.61% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 18.16 | ▲3.42% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 77138 | ▼1.39% |
| Ethereum | 2462 | ▼0.17% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.8% | +0.02% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▼1.41% | Finance ▼0.33% | Energy ▼0.58% |
| Health ▼0.55% | Consumer ▼0.44% | Industrial ▼0.72% |
| Staples ▲0.06% | Utilities ▼0.98% | Materials ▼1.23% |
| Real Est ▼0.83% | Comms ▲0.6% | Semis ▼2.44% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
BAND CONDITIONS 80‑40 m daytime fair, night good; 30‑20 m both day and night good; 17‑15 m day fair, night poor; 12‑10 m both day and night poor. Best monitoring windows UTC 20‑23 and 00‑02 on 30‑20 m and 80‑40 m night conditions; 20‑23 on 80‑40 m day for short‑wave propagation.
STATIONS OF INTEREST UVB‑76 Russia – high‑risk environment indicated by Russia’s instability index (82) and recent claim of Ukrainian provocation (NYT). SKYKING/EAM US – United States index at 83.8 and oil price surge tied to Iran conflict (CNBC) make US military HF relevant. PLA HF Network China – China’s index 55.6 and regional tension over Iran‑related missile production (WSJ) suggest monitoring. Radio Havana Cuba – Cuba’s broadcast may echo U.S. energy‑price pressures and broader geopolitical stress.
GEOPOLITICAL CORRELATION Russian stations align with a rising Russian instability score and a report of Moscow alleging Ukrainian war planning. U.S. military frequencies correspond to the United States’ high instability rating and crude‑oil price spikes driven by the Iran war. Chinese military HF links to China’s modest index but indirect relevance to Iran’s missile revival. No supplied reports directly reference Cuba, so its activity remains unrelated to the current brief.
MONITORING PLAN 3828 kHz 20‑23 UTC; 4445 kHz 20‑23 UTC; 6855 kHz 21‑00 UTC; 8300 kHz 20‑23 UTC; 8992 kHz 20‑23 UTC.
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 109 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 5 | K-INDEX 1 | X-RAY B4.4 | WIND 427 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Fair | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Poor | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 14d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ NEW | OpenAI — Partial System Degradation minor |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Anthropic — Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows minor · since Sep 10 · ongoing 4h · last update Sep 10 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Delays from a Subset of Australia Subscribers to Twilio Australia Phone Numbers minor · since Sep 4 · ongoing 6d · last update Sep 7 |
Internet Disruptions
| GOV-DIRECTED | Iraq nationwide Exam Shutdown Sep 10 03:30Z–03:45Z |
| GOV-DIRECTED | Iraq nationwide Exam Shutdown Sep 9 03:30Z–03:45Z |
Source: Cloudflare Radar outage annotations, last 48 hours.
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.4 | Earthquake — southern East Pacific Rise |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 83 km E of Lospalos, Timor Leste |
| M5.3 | Earthquake — 126 km WSW of Alianza Cristiana, Peru |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 162 km SSW of Merizo Village, Guam |
| M5 | Earthquake — 45 km SSE of Quepos, Costa Rica |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| MODERATE | Australia warm | +7.9°F | -1.2mm |
| MODERATE | Central Asia cold | -6.3°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Distant sensors announced a fearsome tsunami’s birth
GOVERNMENT NextGen Healthcare Mirth Connect
DEFENSE & CONFLICT Iran Is Producing Ballistic Missiles Again
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Hugging Face co-founder: What we learnt from OpenAI’s hack
TECHNOLOGY Regulatory Uncertainty Clouds Chinese Robot Firm Galaxea AI’s IPO Plan
BUSINESS & MARKETS UK Sanctions Against Israeli Settlers Divide British Rabbis
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