The Vigilant // SITREP Index 55 Elevated · De-escalating
SITREP Index 55 (Elevated), -3 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · Saturday, September 5, 2026
SITREP INDEX
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast. |
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL ‘It cost me many friendships’: former Brazil military chief reveals inside struggle to stop Bolsonaro’s coup — Guardian
HIGH US envoys Witkoff, Kushner meet Putin for talks on Ukraine war — AlJazeera
HIGH Putin Meets Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow to Discuss Ukraine War — NYT
HIGH US strikes 3 Iranian oil tankers after saying warships were targeted with ballistic missiles — AP
HIGH Commemoration held for late Serb war criminal Ratko Mladic — SCMP
Today's Movers
| COUNTRY | COVERAGE Δ | INDEX |
| ▼ United States | -20 | 71.3 (-13.5) |
| ▼ United Kingdom | -7 | 31.1 (-11) |
| ▼ Ukraine | -5 | 77 (-4) |
| ▼ Iran | -5 | 68.9 (-4) |
| ▲ India | +4 | 56.9 (+5) |
The Board
| COUNTRY | INDEX | Δ | CONFLICT | NEWS |
| Russia | 84 | ▼ -0.5 | 88 | 80 |
| Ukraine | 77 | ▼ -4 | 86 | 68 |
| United States | 71.3 | ▼ -13.5 | 70 | 73 |
| Iran | 68.9 | ▼ -4 | 68 | 70 |
| India | 56.9 | ▲ +5 | 86 | 28 |
| Israel | 44.2 | ▲ +2.5 | 51 | 37 |
| France | 41.3 | ▲ +2 | 54 | 29 |
| Germany | 40.3 | ▲ +2 | 53 | 28 |
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 4 DOUBLE TAKE - INCREASED INTELLIGENCE WATCH · activity 30% · 1 spike · 6 locations
| LOCATION | ACTIVITY |
| Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) | SPIKE 100% |
| Extreme Pizza | ELEVATED 54% |
| We, The Pizza | QUIET 13% |
| Pizzato Pizza | QUIET 8% |
| Papa Johns Pizza | QUIET 3% |
| District Pizza Palace | QUIET 2% |
Geopolitical Tensions
| PAIR | GPR | 7-DAY |
| USA ↔ Russia | 0.5 | ↑ +31.5% |
| Russia ↔ Ukraine | 1.6 | → -4.4% |
| USA ↔ China | 0.3 | ↑ +79.3% |
| China ↔ Taiwan | 1.2 | ↑ +16.7% |
| USA ↔ Iran | 2.1 | ↑ +6.8% |
| USA ↔ Venezuela | -0.4 | → 0% |
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 5/7 bullish
| SIGNAL | READ | BASIS |
| Liquidity | SQUEEZE | JPY 30d ROC -4.5% |
| Flow | ALIGNED | BTC +1.8% / QQQ +0.3% 5d |
| Regime | RISK-ON | QQQ -0.6% vs XLP -0.6% 20d |
| BTC Trend | BULLISH | BTC $79,935 · Mayer 1.15 |
| Hash Rate | STABLE | +1.6% 30d |
| Mining Cost | PROFITABLE | |
| Fear & Greed | Greed | 73/100 |
| EQUITIES | ||
| S&P 500 | 770.19 | ▼0.39% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 718.96 | ▲0.18% |
| Dow Jones | 534.08 | ▼0.53% |
| COMMODITIES | ||
| Gold | 406.77 | ▼0.84% |
| Crude Oil | 141.96 | ▼0.09% |
| VOLATILITY | ||
| Volatility (VIX) | 17 | ▲0.29% |
| CRYPTO | ||
| Bitcoin | 79918 | ▲0.3% |
| Ethereum | 2489 | ▲1.42% |
| RATES | ||
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.77% | -0.02% |
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
| Tech ▲0.7% | Finance ▼0.79% | Energy ▼0.87% |
| Health ▼1.04% | Consumer ▼1.33% | Industrial ▲0.41% |
| Staples ▼0.8% | Utilities ▲0.12% | Materials ▼0.34% |
| Real Est ▼0.72% | Comms ▼1.19% | Semis ▲2.61% |
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
Solar & Propagation
| SFI 111 | SUNSPOTS 76 | A-INDEX 2 | K-INDEX 0 | X-RAY B4.7 | WIND 342 km/s |
| BAND | DAY | NIGHT |
| 80m–40m | Fair | Good |
| 30m–20m | Good | Good |
| 17m–15m | Good | Poor |
| 12m–10m | Fair | Poor |
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
| ⚠ ONGOING | Cloudflare — Incorrect geo location for some Cloudflare WARP users minor · since Aug 27 · ongoing 9d · last update Sep 1 |
| ⚠ ONGOING | Twilio — MMS Delivery Receipt Delays from a Subset of Twilio Long Codes to GCI United States minor · since Sep 3 · ongoing 2d · last update Sep 5 |
Disaster Watch
| EVENT | DETAIL |
| M5.6 | Earthquake — 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu |
| M5.5 | Earthquake — 157 km E of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea |
| M5.5 | Earthquake — 168 km ESE of Kuril’sk, Russia |
| M5.2 | Earthquake — 77 km SSW of Sibolga, Indonesia |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — 69 km E of Antofagasta de la Sierra, Argentina |
| M5.1 | Earthquake — central Mid-Atlantic Ridge |
| M5 | Earthquake — 70 km SW of Pagar Alam, Indonesia |
| M5 | Earthquake — off the coast of Central America |
| RED | FL — Red flood alert in Nepal |
| ORANGE | VO — Volcanic eruption is on going for Krakatau in Indonesia |
| ORANGE | TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone SAUDEL-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 13.05 million . |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in India |
| ORANGE | FL — Orange flood alert in China |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croati |
| ORANGE | DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar |
Climate Anomalies
| SEVERITY | ZONE | TEMP | PRECIP |
| EXTREME | Central Asia cold | -14.4°F | +0.2mm |
| EXTREME | Australia warm | +14°F | -2.5mm |
| EXTREME | California cold | -11.5°F | -0.1mm |
| MODERATE | Southern Africa warm | +7°F | +2.8mm |
| MODERATE | Middle East cold | -6.1°F | 0mm |
Deltas vs seasonal baseline.
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS New method predicts where massive earthquakes will strike
GOVERNMENT As wildfires spread north, UN agencies race to help Europe adapt
DEFENSE & CONFLICT U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Ships After Missiles Fired at American Aircraft Carrier
AI & MACHINE LEARNING EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic IPO launch shifts toward mid-October, sources say
TECHNOLOGY Explore the globe in field recordings
BUSINESS & MARKETS UN experts urge Sudan-wide arms embargo
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