Daily Market Brief — 2026-08-13

Before the bell rings — here's the tape.

VIX calm (14.50) · SPX +9.67% above its 200-day SMA · KOSPI +3.56% leads global indices; SMH +2.08% / XLK +1.49% strongest US sectors · XLC −1.39% / ITB −2.32% lag · Crude −2.37% despite Iran Hormuz rhetoric

News (last 24h)

• [FJuice/MktWtch, today] US wholesale inflation moderates; Core PPI at 4.2% YoY (below forecast), jobless claims stable
• [FJuice, today] Fed officials Hammack and Barkin: persistent inflation requires policy action; consumer resilient
• [FJuice, today] Iran asserts full control of Strait of Hormuz; denies Trump claims amid shipping tensions
• [Yahoo, today] TSMC stock rises on Sony $4.69B venture launch; industry assesses AI chip capacity adequacy
• [MktWtch, today] AI boom reshaping foreign exchange markets; capital flows drive currency volatility shifts
• [Yahoo, today] Big Tech spending inflates credit risk for non-AI-linked firms; systemic spillover concerns
• [Yahoo, today] GM and LG Energy restart Ohio EV battery plant; Canada seeks auto tariff relief amid tensions
• [Yahoo, today] Elon Musk's Texas megafactory under development at 36x Empire State Building scale
• [Yahoo, today] NVIDIA faces competitive risk as hyperscaler customers develop in-house chip alternatives
• [FJuice, today] US relaxes export controls on drones and technology components; supply-chain normalization signal

Observations

Today's setup: A softer-than-expected Core PPI print (4.2% YoY) and stable jobless claims drove the session's dominant theme: markets re-priced the rate-cut path, pulling yields lower across the curve. The 5-year led the decline, the 30-year followed modestly — a mild bull-flattening. Small-caps, regional banks, and biotech gained on the easing-expectation read. Meanwhile KOSPI surged 3.56% in Asia — the standout global move — dragging US semiconductor ETFs higher pre-open in sympathy, a linkage that tends to run in both directions during the current AI-hardware cycle. Technology and semis are the clear leaders; communication services and consumer discretionary lag, with Meta's sharp decline the primary drag on XLC.

Today's PPI miss adds to the case for Fed easing, but the Fed is not fully on board. Officials Hammack and Barkin pushed back firmly, calling for continued policy action on persistent inflation. The result is a long end that remains anchored at structurally elevated levels — the 10-year sits at 4.659% and the 30-year at 5.231%, both near the top of their 52-week ranges. That level, not today's modest daily dip, is what continues to weigh on interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Home construction (ITB −2.32%) fell despite yields edging lower: when mortgage rates are already prohibitively high, a few basis points of daily relief do not materially shift affordability for buyers, and the lock-in effect on existing homeowners keeps turnover suppressed.

Iran's claim of full Strait of Hormuz control generated headlines but not a commodity-market reaction — crude fell 2.37%. The Hormuz channel is a severe stress scenario if operationally enacted, historically transmitting into an energy-price spike and knock-on food and EM currency pressure. Markets today are pricing the statement as political posturing rather than an operational closure threat, which is why oil fell and energy sector ETFs were broadly quiet.

TSMC's Sony joint-venture announcement is the cleaner catalyst: a $4.69 billion investment in new fab capacity is a concrete signal of deepening AI-chip infrastructure build-out. With hyperscaler AI capital expenditure now running near $450 billion annually globally, the foundry and equipment supply chain continues to be a direct beneficiary. KOSPI's surge reinforces this: Korean manufacturers sit early in the AI hardware stack, and their equity strength is typically a leading read-through for global semiconductor sentiment.

Indices & Macro

Symbol	Description	Last	Δ%	52W pos	Week
^GSPC	S&P 500	7,748.50	+0.26%	96.9%
^IXIC	NASDAQ	26,588.49	+0.54%	90.7%
^DJI	Dow Jones	53,770.27	−0.04%	90.4%
^RUT	Russell 2000 (US small-cap)	3,045.48	+0.61%	99.3%
^GDAXI	DAX (Germany, EUR)	26,412.61	+0.31%	96.6%
^FTSE	FTSE 100 (UK, GBP)	10,796.19	−0.34%	89.7%
^N225	Nikkei 225 (Japan, JPY)	68,308.59	+1.16%	85.4%
^KS11	KOSPI (South Korea, tech-heavy, KRW)	6,813.34	+3.56%	59.2%
^TWII	TAIEX (Taiwan, tech/TSMC-heavy, TWD)	46,021.48	+1.11%	91.1%
^HSI	Hang Seng (HK / China, HKD)	25,396.51	−0.17%	52.0%
^FVX	US 5Y yield	4.332%	−0.98%	85.3%
^TNX	US 10Y yield	4.659%	−0.49%	89.0%
^TYX	US 30Y yield	5.231%	−0.30%	93.4%
DX-Y.NYB	US Dollar Index (DXY, trade-weighted)	99.88	−0.13%	69.3%

Commodities

Symbol	Description	Last	Δ%	52W pos	Week
GC=F	Gold	4,451.70	+0.97%	50.2%
SI=F	Silver	65.37	−0.29%	33.5%
CL=F	WTI Crude	81.30	−2.37%	40.8%

Soft Commodities (Agricultural)

Symbol	Description	Last	Δ%	52W pos	Seasonal (August)	Week
CC=F	Cocoa	5,769.00	+2.67%	51.8%	T
KC=F	Coffee	316.30	−7.00%	37.7%	L
ZS=F	Soybeans	1,180.00	+1.31%	72.5%	S
ZC=F	Corn	477.00	+4.38%	95.8%	S
ZW=F	Wheat	654.50	+0.27%	74.1%	S
SB=F	Sugar	16.55	+0.79%	85.6%	T
CT=F	Cotton	82.88	−0.40%	78.7%	T

Seasonal: L = long-biased month, S = short-biased, T = transition. Calibrated against 10y + 20y empirical futures backtest — context only.

Volatility

Symbol	Underlying	Last	Δ%	Week
^VIX	SPX	14.50	−0.34%
^VXN	NASDAQ	20.97	−6.30%
^GVZ	Gold	25.58	−1.58%
^OVX	Crude	52.34	−4.82%

Regime: calm (VIX 14.50, below 15 threshold).

Fear & Greed (CNN): Greed (62/100).

Sector ETFs

Symbol	Sector	Last	Δ%	52W pos	Week
XLK	Technology	188.86	+1.49%	86.3%
XLV	Health Care	168.44	+0.26%	96.7%
XLF	Financials	57.92	+0.21%	95.4%
XLRE	Real Estate (S&P)	44.49	+0.20%	70.8%
XLE	Energy	61.03	+0.16%	88.5%
XLB	Materials	52.58	−1.24%	87.1%
XLI	Industrials	185.88	+0.10%	94.4%
XLU	Utilities	43.84	+0.48%	40.5%
XLP	Consumer Staples	85.08	+0.46%	66.2%
XLY	Consumer Disc	117.89	−1.13%	64.1%
XLC	Communication Svcs	110.27	−1.39%	34.1%
SMH	Semiconductors	584.83	+2.08%	77.7%
GLD	Gold (ETF)	404.92	+0.99%	48.8%
GDX	Gold Miners	90.96	+0.93%	56.7%
XME	Metals & Mining	116.79	−0.88%	68.1%
OIH	Oil Services	413.24	−0.50%	79.5%
XOP	Oil & Gas E&P	178.58	+0.12%	82.7%
PBW	Clean Energy	34.64	−1.06%	46.3%
MOO	Agribusiness	81.20	−0.51%	68.9%
IBB	Biotech	200.72	+0.49%	98.7%
KRE	Regional Banks	77.38	+0.74%	95.3%
KIE	Insurance	63.51	−0.17%	76.9%
ITB	Home Construction	98.17	−2.32%	39.9%
VNQ	REITs (broad)	97.31	+0.96%	70.0%

Earnings & Zacks

Reporting today / next ~7 sessions

See you tomorrow, 60 minutes before the open.