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View today's digest
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In 30 seconds
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the global economy, with the market speculating about the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026.
- Venezuela is facing significant political and economic challenges, with the market speculating about the likelihood of María Corina Machado becoming the leader of the country.
- The US and Cuba have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to the market's speculation about the likelihood of a US strike on Cuba.
- The California Governor Election is a significant event in US politics, with the market speculating about the likelihood of Steve Hilton winning the election.
- MicroStrategy is a significant player in the Bitcoin market, with its decisions impacting the cryptocurrency's price and adoption.
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Risk assets steady — oil prices slip
Fed rate cut hopes dwindle, geopolitical tensions rise
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Overcast New York 7° · Clear London 8° · Overcast Singapore 31° · Mostly clear Tokyo 19° · Mostly clear Sydney 19°
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Signal of the day
The market vs wires tension is spicy, with the US inflation data release being closely watched by investors and traders. The outcome is uncertain, and the market is pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May.
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Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$7,064 |
-0.6% |
| Nasdaq |
$24,260 |
-0.6% |
| Bitcoin |
$78,058 |
+2.3% |
| Brent |
$92.48 |
-0.8% |
Europe · context
IBEX -0.7% · Santander -1.1% · BBVA -2.0% · +3 names
Macro read
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the global economy, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026. The probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 is low at 4%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This reflects the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation and economic performance, with recent economic indicators contributing to this assessment. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of aggressive easing, with the focus on the Fed's tone and future decisions. The USD is steady, with the DXY index at 101.5, and risk appetite is neutral, with the VIX at 18.5. Commodities are mixed, with Brent crude at $92.48 and gold at $1,850. The global economy is facing
Prediction markets
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
The probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 is low at 4%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This reflects the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation and economic performance, with recent economic indicators contributing to this assessment. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of aggressive easing, with the focus on the Fed's tone and future decisions.
Context
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the global economy, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026. The probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 is low at 4%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This reflects the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation and economic performance, with recent economic indicators contributing to this assessment. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of aggressive easing, with the focus on the Fed's tone and future decisions.
Implications for positions
The implications of a low probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 are significant, with the market expecting the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This could lead to a stronger USD and higher interest rates, with potential impacts on emerging markets and the global economy. Traders should watch for any changes in the Fed's stance, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May. A
Watch
- FOMC meeting
- Fed rate decision
- US inflation data
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026
The probability of María Corina Machado being the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026 is low at 10%, indicating that the market expects other candidates or leaders to emerge. This reflects Venezuela's complex political landscape and the stability of the leadership, with the market watching for any changes in the political landscape. Recent developments have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on regional stability and US-Venezuela relations.
Context
Venezuela is facing significant political and economic challenges, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of María Corina Machado becoming the leader of the country. The probability of María Corina Machado being the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026 is low at 10%, indicating that the market expects other candidates or leaders to emerge. This reflects Venezuela's complex political landscape and the stability of the leadership, with the market watching for any changes in the political landscape.
Implications for positions
The probability of María Corina Machado being the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026 has implications for regional stability and US-Venezuela relations. A change in leadership could lead to a shift in Venezuela's economic policies, with potential impacts on the country's oil production and exports. Traders should watch for any changes in the political landscape, with the potential for
Watch
- Venezuela election
- US-Venezuela relations
- Oil prices
Unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
US strike on Cuba by December 31
The probability of a US strike on Cuba remains low at 35%, indicating a possible but not imminent threat. The market is pricing in a low probability of a strike, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability. The US and Cuba have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to this assessment. The market is watching for any changes in the US-Cuba relationship, with the potential for increased tensions or diplomatic efforts.
Context
The US and Cuba have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to the market's speculation about the likelihood of a US strike on Cuba. The probability of a US strike on Cuba remains low at 35%, indicating a possible but not imminent threat. The market is pricing in a low probability of a strike, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability.
Implications for positions
The probability of a US strike on Cuba has significant implications for regional stability and global geopolitics. A strike could lead to a decline in risk assets and a rally in safe-haven assets, with potential impacts on the global economy. Traders should watch for any changes in the US-Cuba relationship, with the potential for increased tensions or diplomatic efforts.
Watch
- US-Cuba relations
- Diplomatic efforts
- Regional stability
Ruled out
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026
The probability of Steve Hilton winning the California Governor Election in 2026 is low at 6%, indicating that the market expects other candidates to have a stronger chance of winning. This reflects the current political landscape and the popularity of other candidates, with the market watching for any changes in the election landscape. Recent developments have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on the candidates' policies and campaign strategies.
Context
The California Governor Election is a significant event in US politics, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of Steve Hilton winning the election. The probability of Steve Hilton winning the California Governor Election in 2026 is low at 6%, indicating that the market expects other candidates to have a stronger chance of winning. This reflects the current political landscape and the popularity of other candidates, with the market watching for any changes in the election landscape.
Implications for positions
The probability of Steve Hilton winning the California Governor Election in 2026 has implications for the US political landscape and the candidates' policies. A change in leadership could lead to a shift in California's economic policies, with potential impacts on the state's budget and economy. Traders should watch for any changes in the election landscape, with the focus on the candidates'
Watch
- California Governor Election
- US politics
- Candidate debates
Ruled out
Resolves Jul 1, 2026
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026
The probability of MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by June 2026 is extremely low at 3%, indicating that the market expects MicroStrategy to maintain its Bitcoin holdings. This reflects the company's long-term commitment to holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, with the market watching for any changes in MicroStrategy's strategy. Recent developments have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on the company's financial performance and Bitcoin's price.
Context
MicroStrategy is a significant player in the Bitcoin market, and its decisions can impact the cryptocurrency's price and adoption. The probability of MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by June 2026 is extremely low at 3%, indicating that the market expects MicroStrategy to maintain its Bitcoin holdings. This reflects the company's long-term commitment to holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, with the market watching for any changes in MicroStrategy's strategy.
Implications for positions
The probability of MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by June 2026 has implications for the company's financial performance and Bitcoin's price. A sale could lead to a decline in Bitcoin's price, with potential impacts on the cryptocurrency's adoption and market sentiment. Traders should watch for any changes in MicroStrategy's strategy, with the focus on the company's financial performance and
Watch
- MicroStrategy earnings
- Bitcoin price
- Cryptocurrency adoption
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Analysis
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On the wire
Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Editorial brief
The global economy is facing significant challenges, including geopolitical tensions and a potential recession. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the global economy, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026. Watch for any changes in the Fed's stance, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May.
Read full analysis →
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The market is watching for any changes in the Fed's stance, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May. A rate hike could lead to a decline in risk assets, while a rate cut could lead to a rally.
If you only watch one thing today
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a significant impact on the global economy, and the market is speculating about the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026. Watch for any changes in the Fed's stance, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May.
Will the Federal Reserve maintain its current monetary policy stance, or will it surprise the market with a rate cut?
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