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View today's digest
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In 30 seconds
- Global markets are weighing geopolitical risks, with the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and Russia's military actions contributing to market uncertainty.
- The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are influencing global markets, with the probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 remaining low at 4%.
- The price of Brent crude oil has slipped to $94.99, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have declined by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
- The USD has maintained its strength, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.093.
- The global economy remains uncertain, with the World Bank revising its growth forecast downwards due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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Risk assets steady — oil prices slip
Global markets weigh geopolitical risks
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Clear New York 1° · Overcast London 8° · Thunderstorm Singapore 29° · Clear Tokyo 23° · Partly cloudy Sydney 18°
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Signal of the day
The market vs wires tension is spicy, with the US inflation data release being closely watched by investors and traders. The outcome is uncertain, and the market is pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May.
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Markets in brief
Cash tape
| S&P 500 |
$7,109 |
-0.2% |
| Nasdaq |
$24,404 |
-0.3% |
| Bitcoin |
$75,926 |
+0.1% |
| Brent |
$94.99 |
-0.5% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€18,261
-1.2% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€10.76 |
-2.6% |
| BBVA |
€19.61 |
-3.4% |
| Inditex |
€54.32 |
-1.3% |
| Telefónica |
€3.88 |
+0.4% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.87 |
+0.3% |
Macro read
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions continue to influence global markets, with the probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 remaining low at 4%. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has reduced tensions, and the market is pricing in a low likelihood of an imminent escalation. The price of Brent crude oil has slipped to $94.99, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have declined by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The USD has maintained its strength, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.093. The market is closely watching the US inflation data release, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. The global economy remains uncertain, with the World Bank revising its growth forecast downwards due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
What to watch today
- US inflation data release
- Fed speech
- NATO meeting
Prediction markets
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
The probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 is low at 4%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This reflects the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation and economic performance, with recent economic indicators contributing to this assessment. The crowd is pricing in a low likelihood of aggressive easing, with the focus on the Fed's tone and future decisions.
Context
The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has reduced tensions between the two countries, with the market pricing in a low likelihood of an imminent escalation. The agreement aims to halt direct hostilities and de-escalate the conflict, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability. The US and Iran have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to this assessment. The international community's response to the ceasefire has been positive, with the focus on maintaining regional stability and preventing further escalation.
Implications for positions
The implications of a US strike on Cuba are significant, with potential consequences for regional stability and global geopolitics. Traders should watch for changes in US policy and diplomatic efforts, with the focus on the US-Cuba relationship. A strike could lead to increased tensions and volatility in the markets, with potential impacts on oil prices and the global economy.
Watch
- US inflation data release
- Fed speech
- NATO meeting
Ruled out
Resolves Apr 21, 2026
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026
The likelihood of Trump announcing the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21, 2026, is low at 4%, due to the recent ceasefire agreement and reduced tensions. The market is pricing in a low probability of an imminent escalation, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability. The US and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, aiming to halt direct hostilities and de-escalate the conflict.
Context
The probability of Russia invading another country in 2026 is low at 13%, indicating that the market expects Russia to focus on its current conflicts rather than expanding into new territories. Russia's military actions have significant implications for global geopolitics, with the market watching for any changes in Russia's stance. The international community's response to Russian aggression has contributed to this assessment, with the focus on preventing further escalation and maintaining global security.
Implications for positions
The likelihood of Kash Patel leaving his position has significant implications for the FBI's leadership and future direction. Investors should watch for changes in the FBI's leadership and potential impacts on US policy, with the focus on the FBI's role in national security. Patel's departure could lead to changes in the FBI's priorities and strategies, with potential consequences for the US and
Watch
- US-Iran diplomatic efforts
- Iran's response to ceasefire
- US policy changes
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Russia invade another country in 2026
The probability of Russia invading another country in 2026 is low at 13%, indicating that the market expects Russia to focus on its current conflicts rather than expanding into new territories. This reflects Russia's military actions and their implications for global geopolitics, with the market watching for any changes in Russia's stance. The international community's response to Russian aggression has contributed to this assessment.
Context
The likelihood of a country leaving NATO by December 31, 2026, is low at 12%, indicating that the market expects NATO member states to maintain their commitments. NATO's stability and cohesion have significant implications for global security, with the market watching for any changes in the political landscape. The alliance's unity and cooperation have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on maintaining global security and preventing further escalation.
Implications for positions
The probability of María Corina Machado being the leader of Venezuela has significant implications for the country's political landscape and regional stability. Traders should watch for changes in the political landscape and potential impacts on US-Venezuela relations, with the focus on the country's future direction. Machado's leadership could lead to changes in Venezuela's policies and
Watch
- Russia's military actions
- International community's response
- Diplomatic efforts
Ruled out
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026
The likelihood of a country leaving NATO by December 31, 2026, is low at 12%, indicating that the market expects NATO member states to maintain their commitments. This reflects NATO's stability and cohesion, with the market watching for any changes in the political landscape. The alliance's unity and cooperation have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on global security and geopolitical tensions.
Context
The probability of a US strike on Cuba by December 31 is 34%, indicating a possible but not imminent threat. The US and Cuba have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to this assessment. The market is pricing in a low probability of a strike, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability. A strike could lead to increased tensions and volatility in the markets, with potential consequences for the global economy and security.
Implications for positions
The likelihood of the Philadelphia Phillies winning the 2026 World Series has significant implications for the team's valuation and the MLB landscape. Investors should watch for changes in the team's performance and potential impacts on the MLB, with the focus on the team's future prospects. A World Series win could lead to increased revenue and popularity for the team, with potential consequences
Watch
- NATO member states' commitments
- Alliance's unity and cooperation
- Global security
Unlikely
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
US strike on Cuba by December 31
The probability of a US strike on Cuba by December 31 is 34%, indicating a possible but not imminent threat. The market is pricing in a low probability of a strike, with the focus on diplomatic efforts and regional stability. The US and Cuba have a complex relationship, with ongoing tensions and disputes contributing to this assessment.
Context
The likelihood of Kash Patel leaving his position by June 30 is high at 66%, indicating that the market expects significant changes in the FBI's leadership. Kash Patel's role as FBI Director has been subject to controversy and speculation, with the market watching for any changes in the FBI's leadership. Recent developments have contributed to this assessment, with the focus on the FBI's future direction and potential impacts on US policy.
Implications for positions
The probability of Amanda Anisimova winning the 2026 Women's Wimbledon title has significant implications for the tennis landscape and women's sports. Traders should watch for changes in the tennis landscape and potential impacts on women's sports, with the focus on the athlete's career and future prospects. Anisimova's win could lead to increased popularity and revenue for women's tennis, with
Watch
- US-Cuba diplomatic efforts
- Cuba's response to US policy
- Regional stability
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Analysis
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On the wire
Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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Editorial brief
Global markets are weighing geopolitical risks, with the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and Russia's military actions contributing to market uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are influencing global markets, with the probability of four Fed rate cuts in 2026 remaining low at 4%. The price of Brent crude oil has slipped to $94.99, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have declined by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Read full analysis →
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The market's focus on geopolitical risks and monetary policy decisions will continue to influence global markets, with the potential for increased volatility and uncertainty. As the world watches the unfolding events, one thing is certain - the only constant is change.
If you only watch one thing today
The US inflation data release is the single highest-signal idea or risk to watch today, as it could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and influence global markets.
Will the US-Iran ceasefire agreement hold, and what implications will it have for global markets and geopolitics?
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