Ruled out

Trump out as President by March 31

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Trump being out as President by March 31 is 0% because there have been no recent developments suggesting his removal or resignation, and his term is not set to end until 2029. The market has likely priced in the low likelihood of such an event occurring.

Ruled out

Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March

Market read: ruled out. The probability of crude oil hitting $65 by the end of March is low at 3% because recent oil prices have been relatively stable, and there have been no significant disruptions to global oil supplies. The market has likely priced in the current supply and demand dynamics.

Ruled out

Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Chris Murphy winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is low at 1% because the nomination process is still far in the future, and there are many factors that can influence the outcome. The market has likely priced in the uncertainty and lack of clear information about Murphy's chances.

Ruled out

Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Elon Musk posting 400-419 tweets in the specified timeframe is low at 7% because Musk's tweeting frequency can be unpredictable, and there is no clear indication that he will increase his tweeting activity in the near term.

Ruled out

Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Claude 5 being released by March 31 is low at 2% because there have been no recent announcements or indications from Anthropic that the model will be released in the near term. The market has likely priced in the lack of clear information about the release date.