Ruled out

Trump out as President by March 31

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Trump being out as President by March 31 is 0% because there have been no recent developments suggesting his removal or resignation, and his term is not set to end until 2029. The market has likely priced in the low likelihood of such an event occurring.

Ruled out

Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March

Market read: ruled out. The probability of crude oil hitting $65 by the end of March is low, at 3%, likely due to recent market trends and geopolitical events that have influenced oil prices. The market may be factoring in the potential for continued supply and demand imbalances.

Ruled out

Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Chris Murphy winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is low, at 1%, likely due to the early stage of the election cycle and the lack of significant developments in Murphy's campaign. The market may be factoring in the potential for other candidates to emerge as frontrunners.

Ruled out

Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Elon Musk posting 400-419 tweets in the specified timeframe is low, at 7%, likely due to Musk's historical tweeting patterns and the market's expectation of his typical behavior. The market may be factoring in the potential for Musk to maintain his usual level of activity on Twitter.

Ruled out

Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026

Market read: ruled out. The probability of Claude 5 being released by March 31 is low, at 2%, likely due to the lack of significant developments or announcements from Anthropic regarding the model's release. The market may be factoring in the potential for delays or changes in the release schedule.