Brent falls, risk assets rise · IBEX €17,186 · Unlikely: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April
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Implied odds — plain English
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Brent falls, risk assets rise
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Nublado Madrid 17° · Poco nuboso Barcelona 15° · Nublado Valencia 15° · Parcial Sevilla 24° · Parcial Bilbao 15°
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US · crypto · oil
| S&P 500 |
$6,637 |
+2.0% |
| Nasdaq |
$22,138 |
+2.3% |
| Bitcoin |
$70,970 |
+4.6% |
| Brent |
$98.13 |
-12.5% |
IBEX 35 · Europe
€17,186
+2.8% today
EU heavyweights
| Santander |
€9.80 |
+6.0% |
| BBVA |
€18.78 |
+4.8% |
| Inditex |
€51.10 |
+1.1% |
| Telefónica |
€3.59 |
+0.4% |
| Iberdrola |
€19.34 |
+0.8% |
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❷ The markets say
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Unlikely
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April
Strait of Hormuz: 39% normal by April?
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Ruled out
Trump out as President by March 31
Trump out by March 31: 0% chance
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Ruled out
Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March
Crude Oil: $65 by March?
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Unlikely
Ethereum reach $2,400 in March
Ethereum to $2,400 in March?
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Ruled out
Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Chris Murphy wins 2028 nomination: 1%?
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S&P 500 is up 2.01% — when the tape runs, execution and fees still matter.
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 Signal of the day Market says 39% chance of Strait of Hormuz normalcy, but US-Iran tensions persist.
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❹ World in 30 seconds
Markets rise with Brent down. Geopolitics and crypto in focus. NBA Finals uncertain.
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❺ On the wire
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BBC News
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Al Jazeera
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NPR
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BBC News
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NPR
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Sources include BBC, Guardian, NPR, Al Jazeera—headlines edited for length; not endorsements.
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