The Week in Perspective

From a Texas launch pad to a Kyiv railway platform, the week ran through an American exit from Iraq, an East African industrial bet, and a Baltic election held in Russia's shadow.

United States forces prepared to leave their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending a presence that began after 2003 and in which 4,500 Americans died. The timetable came from a 2024 agreement struck under President Joe Biden and carried out by the Trump administration. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who specialises in armed Shiite groups, said pro-Iranian militias will portray the exit as a victory and try to convert that momentum into greater control. Other observers, and some Iraqi officials, warned that the same vacuum could let Islamic State attempt a comeback — even as Washington continues military action against Tehran.

In Europe the security argument ran the other way. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv by train with one billion euros in new military aid, 350 million euros for energy repairs, and plans to co-produce interceptor drones and long-range missiles. He said that if Russia is not stopped it will turn its war machine against Germany and its allies. Latvia, a NATO member (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the US-led defence alliance) that borders Russia, voted for a new parliament while legally committed to spending at least 5 percent of economic output on defence. Populist parties tapped anger over prices and wages; no major party proposed leaving the European Union or NATO. A US–China summit produced no public shift on Taiwan. On Kenya's northern coast, Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto broke ground on a $16 billion oil refinery, while the campaign group Save Lamu demanded the full environmental impact assessment first. SpaceX attempted Starship's first orbital flight. David Ellison's Skydance named the parent of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery.

Top Stories

1. The United States leaves its last Iraqi bases

American forces were scheduled to leave their final Iraqi bases by Wednesday, closing a two-decade footprint. South China Morning Post emphasised the timeline, the 4,500 US deaths, and the 2024 Biden-era framework that fixed the sequence of closures. Al-Bahadli and Iran-aligned actors inside Iraq framed the exit as a strategic win that could loosen a long-standing counterweight to Tehran. Iraqi officials described the end of a foreign military presence while warning about Islamic State. Watch next: whether militia influence, and any Islamic State activity, rise after the last base closes. ▶ Episode 190 · 2026-09-29

2. Merz reaches Kyiv with aid and a factory plan

Merz arrived Sunday morning with Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and German business leaders. Deutsche Welle reported the one-billion-euro military package, the energy-repair funds, and co-production of interceptor drones and missiles with ranges over 1,000 kilometres in both Ukraine and Germany. Ukrainian officials welcomed the manufacturing cooperation as a path to capacity and technology transfer. Russian authorities, hours earlier, warned foreign diplomats and visitors to avoid Kyiv and government buildings. Watch next: whether those co-production lines are actually stood up, and on what timeline. ▶ Episode 195 · 2026-10-04

3. SpaceX attempts Starship's first orbital flight

SpaceX planned a roughly 10-hour test from Texas — the 14th flight overall — aiming to place the upper stage in Earth orbit at about 275 km and deploy 26 Starlink satellites (SpaceX's internet constellation). France24 stressed the second burn, the 28,000 km-per-hour speed, and a history of explosions on earlier flights that had stayed suborbital. Kathleen Curlee of Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology told AFP (Agence France-Presse, a global news agency) that reaching that speed remains the hardest part. SpaceX called it an “exciting new phase” that includes orbital refuelling. Watch next: whether the upper stage reaches a circular orbit and survives the profile — the gate to refuelling tests. ▶ Episode 189 · 2026-09-28

4. Kenya breaks ground on East Africa's largest oil refinery

Dangote and Ruto launched a $16 billion plant in Lamu designed for 700,000 barrels a day, with Uganda, Ethiopia, Togo and Benin offered a combined 30 percent stake. Dangote pointed to his Lekki refinery in Nigeria as proof the model works; Ruto called it a declaration that Africa will process its own resources rather than export them raw. BBC presented both that official optimism and local demands without endorsing either. Walid Ali of Save Lamu asked for the full environmental impact assessment and raised land-compensation protests. Project backers say land take is limited and compensation runs through established channels; opponents say past coastal projects skipped real scrutiny. Watch next: whether the assessment is released as construction proceeds. ▶ Episode 192 · 2026-10-01

5. A Trump–Xi meeting leaves Taiwan where it was

US and Chinese leaders met without a new public agreement or concession on Taiwan, and issued no joint statement on the island. Nikkei Asia framed the result as continued limbo: no public concession, but also no new test of deterrence. Derek Grossman, a University of Southern California professor and former defence analyst, noted the summit avoided testing commitments in public. Chinese state messaging continued to emphasise unification; Washington restated existing alliances. A reception photo showed Taiwan President Lai Ching-te presenting a gift related to Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., underscoring informal ties. US officials and aligned analysts argue that avoiding public concessions preserves flexibility; Beijing's public line did not soften. Watch next: arms sales, quiet military cooperation, and whether either capital breaks the silence with a concrete move. ▶ Episode 191 · 2026-09-30

Geopolitical Watch

What changed this week was presence and production, not declared doctrine. The United States left Iraq's last bases under a pre-set 2024 sequence — a shift Iran and its Iraqi allies will treat as strategic even though the calendar was bilateral. Germany moved from aid-as-transfer toward aid-as-factory. Latvia voted with four German Eurofighter jets overhead at Riga's request; Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's center-right United List led polls but was expected to emerge weakened, with coalition talks after Sunday's preliminary results. The US–China meeting left Taiwan's security arrangements untouched. Related diplomacy continued around Yemen and the Strait of Hormuz, where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Saudi Arabia's foreign minister — a reminder that the Iraq exit sits inside a wider contest with Tehran.

Economic Signals

The week's largest industrial number was African, not American: a $16 billion refinery rated at 700,000 barrels a day, with a 30 percent regional stake on offer. That is a bet on processing crude in East Africa and on Dangote's Lekki precedent. In Hollywood, Skydance's combination with Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery — about $110 billion on an enterprise basis (the value of equity plus debt) — was set to close after surviving a challenge from state attorneys general. The parent will trade as Skydance under the ticker SKYD; Ellison and outgoing Mattel chief Ynon Kreiz will be co-CEOs. Rentrak data cited by CNBC put next year's slate at 35 films. Latvia's campaign, by contrast, was about a sluggish economy, high prices, low wages, strained health services, and emigration set against a legal 5 percent-of-GDP defence floor (GDP is gross domestic product, the total size of the economy) that leaves less room for other spending.

Progress This Week

• Lamu groundbreaking. Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto started construction on a $16 billion, 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery with a 30 percent regional ownership offer — while Save Lamu still had not seen the full environmental impact assessment.
• Kyiv production pledge. Chancellor Merz put €1 billion in new military aid and €350 million for energy repairs on the table, plus joint interceptor-drone and long-range missile lines — hours after Moscow warned foreigners away from Kyiv.
• Merger clearance. David Ellison's Skydance named the combined Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery parent, a roughly $110 billion deal set to close after beating a state attorneys-general challenge, with 35 films planned next year — two century-old studios now sharing one corporate engine.

Media Watch

The Taiwan summit was covered as a story about silence. Nikkei Asia's limbo frame treated the lack of a public concession as the outcome; Chinese state channels kept talking about unification as if the meeting had not happened. That split — absence as news versus continuity as news — said more about each capital's red lines than any communiqué could have.

On Iraq, casualty counts and the 2003 origin story (South China Morning Post) sat beside victory narratives from Iran-aligned voices. Both are factual as far as they go; neither, on its own, explains a withdrawal whose sequence was locked in 2024. The framing choice — ending a war versus ceding a region — is the argument.

What to Watch Next Week

• Latvia's coalition math. Official preliminary results were due Sunday, after which Kulbergs's weakened United List must bargain in the Saeima (Latvia's 100-seat parliament) as populists gained ground. Defence spending at 5 percent of GDP will constrain every portfolio negotiation. ▶ Episode 194 · 2026-10-03
• Skydance close. The merger is scheduled to close next week under the SKYD ticker, with Ellison and Kreiz as co-CEOs. How the 35-film slate is divided between Paramount and Warner Bros. will show whether “distinct studios” is a structure or a slogan. ▶ Episode 193 · 2026-10-02
• After the last Iraqi base. Watch militia positioning, any Islamic State activity, and whether US action against Tehran continues at the same tempo once the ground footprint is gone.

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