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Market Pulse: S&P 500 closed at 7,799 (+0.7%), NASDAQ Composite at 26,803 (+0.8%), and TSX Composite at 36,759 (+0.3%). Tech strength lifted Canadian equities while broader sentiment stayed steady. The Dallas Fed’s revised symmetric trimmed-mean gauge now shows core inflation at 2.6% year-over-year through June, up from the prior 2.2% reading but still below the 3.3% core PCE. Forecasters expect July core PCE at 0.22%, matching core CPI and leaving the Bank of Canada and Fed on hold for now. Energy and financials lagged while technology and select industrials led. About 20 days ago we picked EPD in energy and it closed down 1.45 percent, a reminder that sector timing still requires closing-price confirmation.

Strategy Spotlight

Prediction markets are platforms where participants trade contracts on future events, with prices reflecting collective probability estimates. Today’s Wealthsimple test of these markets in Canada creates a potential new hedging layer for investors who want to express views on policy or corporate events without direct equity exposure. Implementation starts by opening a Wealthsimple account, reviewing the listed contracts, and sizing small positions that offset portfolio beta to specific risks such as rate decisions or earnings surprises. The approach has historically worked best when event outcomes are binary and liquid enough for tight spreads, but liquidity can evaporate quickly outside major elections or Fed meetings. Risk comes from low volume causing slippage and from regulatory uncertainty around Canadian prediction-market rules. Canadian investors can test the feature first in a TFSA to keep any gains tax-free while learning the mechanics of event-contract pricing. The test phase also hints at possible future expansion into sports and politics contracts, which would widen the set of hedgeable outcomes beyond pure financial events. Source: moneysense.ca

Investor Education: How Symmetric Trimmed-Mean Gauges Filter Noise

Imagine you bought a broad Canadian equity ETF last week expecting the Bank of Canada to cut rates on soft inflation data. Your order filled at the prevailing price, yet the actual inflation signal the central bank watches had already been adjusted by a new symmetric filter that drops the top 20% and bottom 19% of price changes instead of the old asymmetric 31%/24% trim. The mechanism matters because the revised Dallas Fed gauge raises the June core reading from 2.2% to 2.6%, showing that earlier low outliers were overweighted and the medium-term trend is stickier than headline numbers suggested. Professionals always check both the original and revised series before positioning for the next policy meeting. The concrete misconception to avoid is treating every core inflation print as equally reliable; the fix is to compare the symmetric and asymmetric versions on the same release date before adjusting duration or sector exposure. This matters for TFSA holders because even small shifts in rate expectations can move bond ETF prices several percent in a single session.

Practice Investment of the Day

Disclaimer: This is a SIMULATED trade for educational purposes only. No real money is involved. This is NOT financial advice.

Trade Type: Mid-Week Update Today's Pick: None — monitoring CDR.TO Market: TSX Sector: energy Strategy: Valuation screen on energy-transition name reporting quarterly results Hold Period: Monday-Friday Lesson Tags: valuation_discipline, dividend_compounding AI Analysis:

• Catalyst: Condor Energies released unaudited interim financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2026, providing fresh cash-flow visibility.
• Technical Setup: No closing price or volume data yet; waiting for post-release reaction relative to 20-day average volume.
• Risk Assessment: Geopolitical headlines in energy could add volatility; maximum acceptable loss remains 8% from entry.
• Target: +4% to +8% if results confirm transition-project momentum.
• Confidence Level: Low — single fundamental update without volume confirmation or technical setup.

Why This Teaches: The setup demonstrates waiting for closing-price confirmation before declaring any catalyst trade complete, exactly as required by the active rule on leadership-change catalysts. Listeners see how an energy name with stated transition focus can be screened without forcing entry on incomplete data. The quarterly release gives concrete numbers on Central Asia operations that can be compared against prior periods for trend confirmation. Source: financialpost.com

Yesterday's Trade Review

Last Weekly Hold: X.TO — Earnings and dividend-hike catalyst entry Entry: $53.03 (Wednesday open) → Exit: $54.06 (Thursday close) Result: gained 1.94% ($+19.42 on $1,000 position) Running Total: $333.39 across 50 trades Win Rate: 28 wins / 50 total trades (56%) Current Streak: 1 win Alpha vs NASDAQ: Trade gained 1.94% while NASDAQ gained 0.8% over the same window — +1.14% alpha. Lesson Learned: The earnings and dividend-hike entry worked because volume supported the move, yet the modest gain reminds us that single-trade alpha remains variable. Rule: Require closing-price confirmation before declaring any catalyst trade complete. Lesson Tags: earnings_surprise, valuation_discipline

Portfolio Performance (simulated, $1,000 per trade):

• Total trades: 50
• Win rate: 56% (28W / 21L / 1BE)
• Cumulative P&L: $+333.39
• Matched-window alpha vs NASDAQ: +9.3% across 45 benchmarked trades
• Sum of per-trade alpha: +13.4%
• Average return per trade: +0.67%
• Best trade: +20.11%
• Worst trade: -11.80%
• Current streak: 1 win

Tools & Techniques

BlackRock iShares Global ex-North America Equity ETF The new ETF gives Canadian investors direct exposure to developed and emerging markets outside North America through a single TSX-listed vehicle, reducing currency conversion costs and simplifying TFSA/RRSP allocation. It is suited for investors seeking geographic diversification beyond the heavy U.S. weighting in most broad equity ETFs. Access it on any Canadian brokerage platform under the ticker launched this week by BlackRock iShares. The launch pairs with a second vehicle that adds Bitcoin exposure, allowing investors to combine international equity and digital-asset beta in one account without separate wallets or FX trades. Source: Google News

Wealthsimple Prediction Markets Test The platform’s limited rollout lets users trade event contracts inside a familiar brokerage interface, potentially allowing small hedges against policy or earnings outcomes. Canadian investors comfortable with volatility can size tiny positions to offset single-stock risk. It is accessible to Wealthsimple clients participating in the current test phase. The interface already shows unavailable markets, signaling the firm may expand beyond the initial set of contracts once regulatory approval broadens. Source: moneysense.ca

Quick Hits

Dallas Fed Revises Trimmed Mean Inflation Gauge Economists adjusted the filter to a symmetric 19/20 trim, lifting the June core reading to 2.6% and signaling that earlier low outliers had masked a stickier trend. Action: Add the revised Dallas Fed series to your rate-path watchlist and re-run duration screens on bond ETFs before the next Bank of Canada decision.

July Core PCE Forecast at 0.22% Most forecasters now expect a 0.22% print that matches core CPI, narrowing the usual wedge and reducing the chance of an immediate policy surprise. Action: Hold existing rate-sensitive positions but set alerts on TSX financials for any post-release rotation.

BlackRock iShares Launches Bitcoin-Integrated ETF on TSX The new vehicle combines global equities with Bitcoin exposure in one TSX listing, offering a packaged way to add digital-asset beta without separate wallets. Action: Size a 2-3% portfolio sleeve in the new ETF inside a TFSA if your current crypto allocation is below target.

Condor Energies Reports Q2 Results The energy-transition company released unaudited statements for the first half of 2026, giving fresh visibility into Central Asia projects. Action: Place CDR.TO on the energy watchlist and wait for closing-price reaction before considering any position.

Listener Challenge

Open your brokerage platform, search for the new BlackRock iShares Bitcoin-integrated ETF ticker, and compare its management fee and liquidity to your current crypto or equity holdings.

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