Happy Sunday. We are safe and well, and I hope you and yours are too.

In 1914, backed by a virtually unconditional security guarantee from the Russian Empire, a group of Serbian nationalists called the Black Hand engaged in a campaign of bombings and assassinations against officials in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Eventually, the nationalists went too far, assassinating the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinanad. 

Austro-Hungary had enough and declared war on Serbia.

This is how World War I began. 

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I am not suggesting this is the beginning of World War III, but simply that blind adherence to alliances has ruined many a Great Power.

Because the UAE lacks “First Amendment” protections, I’m limited in what I can say here and I am going to do my best to pass on only what has been reported, rather than editorialize.

So what follows is a list of things we know for sure.

On Friday afternoon, I drove up to Fujairah, one of the northern emirates here in the UAE, for a weekend with some friends and some hiking in the Hajar Mountains.

While we were hiking, midday Saturday local time and the dead of night in the US, Israeli military and US forces began an aerial bombardment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This was done without consulting Congress and therefore in violation of US law. It also violates international law.

In their bombing campaign, US and Israeli forces assassinated Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a former Iranian president from the early 2000s; and several other regime officials.

They have also killed upwards of 140 people at a school in Iran and an untold number of additional Iranian civilians.

In response to the attack, the Iranian forces began targeting the US military and their bases in the Gulf region, including here in the UAE.

According to the UAE Ministry of the Defense, at least three people have been killed in the country and more than 50 injured. The primary danger isn’t from missiles or drones but from falling debris when each is intercepted. We have been instructed to shelter-in-place, and all schools in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi have shifted to remote learning through at least Wednesday.

This afternoon, Hope and I made the three-hour trip back to Abu Dhabi from Fujairah, taking a longer-than-usual route into the desert to avoid Dubai after seeing reports of drones and debris falling and injuring people in the city. The roads were eerily empty.

We arrived in Abu Dhabi around 2:00 p.m., and within half an hour heard booms. We were shortly forwarded video of missiles and debris falling from the sky in and around the city. At one point, it sounded like an air show was happening overhead, and columns of smoke were visible on several occasions on the horizon.

Iranian attacks elsewhere have reportedly been more effective. There is a horrific video circulating online of an attack against a tower that was reported to have been used by US officials stationed in Bahrain.

In Israel, there are several reports of missile impacts, although I have only seen one confirmed: three people killed and 28 injured in Bet Shemesh, according to Factal.

Speaking of Factal, they’ve been an indispensable source of real-time information this weekend.

It is worth noting that the Supreme Leader is not just the Head of State for Iran, but functionally the equivalent of a pope for a large portion of Shia Islam.

Consequently, massive protests have broken out in Baghdad and Karachi, targeting US embassies in both cities. Shia Muslims are also staging large demonstrations in Kashmir, leading to the cancellation of school this week.

I am not going to speculate about what comes next. The airports and airspace here in UAE are closed so I ain’t headed anywhere soon, nor do we really want to^[1].

We feel safe here. 

But this was a war of choice by the governments in Washington DC and Tel Aviv, and one that is making me and millions of people here in the Gulf much less safe.

In closing, our sympathies should be with the civilians across the region who are being killed, injured, and displaced in this conflict. Whatever governments decide, it is ordinary families, children, and workers who bear the immediate and irreversible cost.

^[1]We got loving texts from friends and family inviting us to shelter if needed in Barcelona, Dahab, Saigon, and Bali. Thanks Tom, Ramy, Brian, and my big bro Fred.