Archive • Philosophical Multicore • Buttondown

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/20/research_wont_solve_non-alignment_problems/ Introduction Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face non-alignment...

Do Disruptive or Violent Protests Work?

November 20, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/19/do_disruptive_protests_work/ Previously, I reviewed the five strongest studies on protest outcomes and concluded that peaceful...

Knowing Whether AI Alignment Is a One-Shot Problem Is a One-Shot Problem

November 17, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/16/ai_meta_one_shot/ One day, I was at my grandma’s house reading the Sunday funny pages, when I suddenly felt myself getting...

What If Ghosts Were Real?

November 15, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/15/what_if_ghosts_were_real/ If we are correct about the laws of physics, then ghosts can’t exist. But some people are insistent...

Epistemic Spot Check: Expected Value of Donating to Alex Bores's Congressional Campaign

November 13, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/13/spot_check_alex_bores/ Political advocacy is an important lever for reducing existential risk. One way to make political change...

Upside Volatility Is Bad

November 9, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/09/upside_volatility_is_bad/ Investors often say that standard deviation is a bad way to measure investment risk because it...

Writing Your Representatives: A Worthwhile and Neglected Intervention

November 8, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/08/call_or_write_your_representatives/ Is it a good use of time to call or write your representatives to advocate for issues you...

Things I Learned from College

November 7, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/07/things_I_learned_from_college/ (that I still remember a decade later) Evolution on Earth Fact 1: When foxes are bred to be more...

How Can I Not Know Whether I'm Having a Good Experience?

November 6, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/05/how_can_I_not_know_whether_I'm_having_a_good_experience/ I’m playing Elden Ring. I’m fighting a difficult boss1, and I’m...

Do Small Protests Work?

November 4, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/04/do_small_protests_work/ TLDR: The available evidence is weak. It looks like small protests may be effective at garnering...

My Third Caffeine Self-Experiment

November 3, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/03/third_caffeine_self-experiment/ Last year I did a caffeine cycling self-experiment and I determined that I don’t get habituated...

Things I've Become More Confident About

November 2, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/02/things_ive_become_more_confident_about/ Last year, I wrote a list of things I’ve changed my mind on. But good truth-seeking...

Will Welfareans Get to Experience the Future?

November 1, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/11/01/will_welfareans_get_to_experience_the_future/ Epistemic status: This entire essay rests on two controversial premises (linear...

The Next-Gen LLM Might Pose an Existential Threat

October 15, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/10/15/next_gen_LLM_might_pose_existential_threat/ I’m pretty sure that the next generation of LLMs will be safe. But the risk is...

Mechanisms Rule Hypotheses Out, But Not In

October 8, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/10/08/mechanisms_rule_hypotheses_out_not_in/ If there is no plausible mechanism by which a scientific hypothesis could be true, then...

How Much Does It Cost to Offset an LLM Subscription?

October 4, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/10/04/cost_to_offset_LLM_subscription/ Is moral offsetting a good idea? Is it ethical to spend money on something harmful, and then...

I Made an Emacs Extension That Displays Magic: the Gathering Card Tooltips

October 3, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/10/03/mtg_emacs/ This post is about the niche intersection of Emacs and Magic: the Gathering. I considered not writing this because I...

AI Safety Landscape & Strategic Gaps

September 19, 2025

https://mdickens.me/2025/09/19/ai_safety_landscape/ I wrote an article giving a high-level review of what work people are doing in AI safety. My report...

Healthy Cooking Tips from a Lazy Person

August 29, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/08/29/lazy_cooking_tips/ source The problem with most “lazy cooking” advice is that it’s not lazy enough. Today I bring you some...

Doctor Strange Didn't See Only One Victory Out of 14,000,605 Futures

July 26, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/07/25/doctor_strange/ Or, more accurately, the fact that he said the Avengers only won once can’t be taken as evidence about what he...

Is It So Much to Ask for a Nice Reliable Aggregated X-Risk Forecast?

July 13, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/07/12/aggregated_x-risk_forecasts/ On most questions about the future, I don’t hold a strong view. I read the aggregate prediction of...

Annual Subscription Discounts Usually Aren't Worth It

July 7, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/07/07/annual_subscription_discounts/ It’s common for monthly subscription services to offer a discount if you pay annually instead....

LLMs might already be conscious

July 5, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/07/05/LLMs_might_already_be_conscious/ Among people who have thought about LLM consciousness, a common belief is something like LLMs...

In Which I Defend Fruit's Honor

June 8, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/06/08/defending_fruit's_honor/ Confidence: Likely. I am here to clear fruit’s name against the accusations that have been made. Fruit...

Updates Digest: Inaugural Edition

May 30, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/05/30/inaugural_updates_digest/ On many occasions, I edit old posts to make additions, correct mistakes, etc. But there’s no way to...

Ergodicity economics is not serious, please stop taking it seriously

May 29, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/05/29/ergodicity/ I kept telling myself I wouldn’t write this post because it doesn’t matter. But I’ve seen one too many smart people...

Let's take a moment to marvel at how bad the original USDA food pyramid was

May 21, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/05/21/food_pyramid/ The original 1992 version of the USDA Food Pyramid was bad. So bad that people who scrupulously followed the...

Can you maintain lean mass in a calorie deficit?

May 1, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/05/01/resistance_training_calorie_deficit/ If you’re losing weight, does lifting weights reduce how much muscle you lose? Is it...

Why would AI companies use human-level AI to do alignment research?

April 25, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/04/25/bootstrapped_alignment/ Many plans for how to safely build superintelligent AI have a critical section that goes like this:...

Do Protests Work? A Critical Review

April 18, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/04/18/protest_outcomes_critical_review/ (Note for email readers: Some parts of this post might not work properly in email clients. If...

The Triple-Interaction-Effects Argument

April 10, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/04/10/triple_interaction_effects/ In this post I will explain the most impressive argument I heard in 2024. First, some context:...

You can now read my reading notes

March 31, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/03/31/new_reading_notes/ Since 2015, I have been taking notes on most articles I read. I figured other people might find them useful,...

There Are Three Kinds of "No Evidence"

March 3, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/03/03/three_kinds_of_no_evidence/ David J. Balan once proposed that there are two kinds of "no evidence": There have been lots of...

Return stacked funds: A new way to get leverage

February 4, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/02/04/return_stacked_funds/ Some people (including me) have argued that altruists often benefit from leveraging their investments....

I was probably wrong about HIIT and VO2max

February 3, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/02/03/I_was_probably_wrong_about_HIIT_and_VO2max/ This research piece is not as rigorous or polished as usual. I wrote it quickly in...

Retroactive If-Then Commitments

February 1, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/02/01/retroactive_if-then_commitments/ An if-then commitment is a framework for responding to AI risk: “If an AI model has capability...

The 7 Best High-Protein Breakfast Cereals

January 17, 2025

http://mdickens.me/2025/01/17/high_protein_breakfast_cereals/ (I write listicles now) (there are only 7 eligible high-protein breakfast cereals, so the ones...

Charity Cost-Effectiveness Really Does Follow a Power Law

December 25, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/12/25/charity_cost_effectiveness_power_law/ Conventional wisdom says charity cost-effectiveness obeys a power law. To my knowledge,...

"You can't calculate the expected utility of a communist revolution"

December 6, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/12/06/expected_utility_of_communist_revolution/ Leftist critics of effective altruism like to say this. Well, it’s not true, and I...

Thoughts on My Donation Process

December 4, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/12/04/thoughts_on_my_donation_process/ I have some observations and half-baked ideas about my recent donation process . They weren’t...

Where I Am Donating in 2024

November 18, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/11/18/where_i_am_donating_in_2024/ Summary It’s been a while since I last put serious thought into where to donate. Well I’m putting...

Subjects in Pysch Studies Are More Rational Than Psychologists

October 15, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/10/15/subjects_are_more_rational_than_psychologists/ Psychologists have done experiments that supposedly show how people behave...

My submission for Worst Argument In The World

October 12, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/10/12/worst_argument_in_the_world/ Scott Alexander once wrote : David Stove once ran a contest to find the Worst Argument In The...

Outlive: A Critical Review

September 26, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/09/26/outlive_a_critical_review/ Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity by Peter Attia (with Bill Gifford 1 ) gives Attia’s...

I have whatever the opposite of a placebo effect is

September 2, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/09/02/I_have_the_opposite_of_placebo/ Two personal stories: A story about caffeine When I first started working a full-time job, I...

Protein Quality Calculator

August 29, 2024

http://mdickens.me/2024/08/29/DIAAS_calculator/ You may know that complete proteins are good because they contain every essential amino acid. But you might...