Cost-effectiveness model for AI alignment-to-animals vs. alignment-in-general
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/24/alignment-to-animals_BOTEC/ Last September, I wrote: There’s a (say) 80% chance that an aligned(-to-humans) AI will be good for...
Which types of AI alignment research are most likely to be good for all sentient beings?
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/23/which_types_of_alignment_research_are_good_for_all_sentient_beings/ AI alignment is typically defined as the task of aligning...
Worlds where we solve AI alignment on purpose don't look like the world we live in
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/20/worlds_where_we_solve_alignment_on_purpose/ (Or: Why I don’t see how the probability of extinction could be less than 25% on...
Value Investing in the Age of AGI
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/11/value_investing_agi/ Introduction Most people who write about AI and investing fall into one of two camps: traditional...
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The Structural Return Argument Against Value Investing
http://mdickens.me/2026/03/02/structural_return_argument_against_value_investing/ Value investing had a singularly bad run from 2007 to 2020. (And it hasn’t...
Contra "Time Series Momentum: Is It There?"
Note to email readers: Some of the formatting in this post does not render correctly in email. You may prefer to read on my website:...
If AI alignment is as hard as building the steam engine, we likely still die
http://mdickens.me/2026/01/10/if_alignment_is_as_hard_as_the_steam_engine/ You may have seen this graph from Chris Olah illustrating a range of views on the...
I'm wary of increasing government expertise on AI
http://mdickens.me/2025/12/21/government_expertise_on_AI/ Many people in AI safety, especially AI policy, want to increase government expertise. For example,...
I need the Writing Style Guide people to figure out how to put a smiley face inside parentheses
http://mdickens.me/2025/12/11/smiley_inside_parentheses/ I can’t figure out any good way to put a smiley emoticon inside parentheses. There are five choices,...
I did Inkhaven
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/30/inkhaven/ I published a post every day of November as part of the Inkhaven program, in which we are required to publish a post...
Wartime ethics is weird
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/28/wartime_ethics/ The ethical principles that most people hold—and hold most strongly—go completely out the window when it comes...
Alignment Bootstrapping Is Dangerous
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/27/alignment_bootstrapping_is_dangerous/ AI companies want to bootstrap weakly-superhuman AI to align superintelligent AI. I don’t...
Where I Am Donating in 2025
Dear email readers: This post will probably not fit in your email because it’s too long. You can read the whole thing online:...
We won't solve non-alignment problems by doing research
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/20/research_wont_solve_non-alignment_problems/ Introduction Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face non-alignment...
Do Disruptive or Violent Protests Work?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/19/do_disruptive_protests_work/ Previously, I reviewed the five strongest studies on protest outcomes and concluded that peaceful...
Knowing Whether AI Alignment Is a One-Shot Problem Is a One-Shot Problem
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/16/ai_meta_one_shot/ One day, I was at my grandma’s house reading the Sunday funny pages, when I suddenly felt myself getting...
What If Ghosts Were Real?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/15/what_if_ghosts_were_real/ If we are correct about the laws of physics, then ghosts can’t exist. But some people are insistent...
Epistemic Spot Check: Expected Value of Donating to Alex Bores's Congressional Campaign
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/13/spot_check_alex_bores/ Political advocacy is an important lever for reducing existential risk. One way to make political change...
Upside Volatility Is Bad
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/09/upside_volatility_is_bad/ Investors often say that standard deviation is a bad way to measure investment risk because it...
Writing Your Representatives: A Worthwhile and Neglected Intervention
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/08/call_or_write_your_representatives/ Is it a good use of time to call or write your representatives to advocate for issues you...