Will Welfareans Get to Experience the Future?
http://mdickens.me/2025/11/01/will_welfareans_get_to_experience_the_future/ Epistemic status: This entire essay rests on two controversial premises (linear...
The Next-Gen LLM Might Pose an Existential Threat
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/15/next_gen_LLM_might_pose_existential_threat/ I’m pretty sure that the next generation of LLMs will be safe. But the risk is...
Mechanisms Rule Hypotheses Out, But Not In
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/08/mechanisms_rule_hypotheses_out_not_in/ If there is no plausible mechanism by which a scientific hypothesis could be true, then...
How Much Does It Cost to Offset an LLM Subscription?
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/04/cost_to_offset_LLM_subscription/ Is moral offsetting a good idea? Is it ethical to spend money on something harmful, and then...
I Made an Emacs Extension That Displays Magic: the Gathering Card Tooltips
http://mdickens.me/2025/10/03/mtg_emacs/ This post is about the niche intersection of Emacs and Magic: the Gathering. I considered not writing this because I...
AI Safety Landscape & Strategic Gaps
https://mdickens.me/2025/09/19/ai_safety_landscape/ I wrote an article giving a high-level review of what work people are doing in AI safety. My report...
Healthy Cooking Tips from a Lazy Person
http://mdickens.me/2025/08/29/lazy_cooking_tips/ source The problem with most “lazy cooking” advice is that it’s not lazy enough. Today I bring you some...
Doctor Strange Didn't See Only One Victory Out of 14,000,605 Futures
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/25/doctor_strange/ Or, more accurately, the fact that he said the Avengers only won once can’t be taken as evidence about what he...
Is It So Much to Ask for a Nice Reliable Aggregated X-Risk Forecast?
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/12/aggregated_x-risk_forecasts/ On most questions about the future, I don’t hold a strong view. I read the aggregate prediction of...
Annual Subscription Discounts Usually Aren't Worth It
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/07/annual_subscription_discounts/ It’s common for monthly subscription services to offer a discount if you pay annually instead....
LLMs might already be conscious
http://mdickens.me/2025/07/05/LLMs_might_already_be_conscious/ Among people who have thought about LLM consciousness, a common belief is something like LLMs...
In Which I Defend Fruit's Honor
http://mdickens.me/2025/06/08/defending_fruit's_honor/ Confidence: Likely. I am here to clear fruit’s name against the accusations that have been made. Fruit...
Updates Digest: Inaugural Edition
http://mdickens.me/2025/05/30/inaugural_updates_digest/ On many occasions, I edit old posts to make additions, correct mistakes, etc. But there’s no way to...
Ergodicity economics is not serious, please stop taking it seriously
http://mdickens.me/2025/05/29/ergodicity/ I kept telling myself I wouldn’t write this post because it doesn’t matter. But I’ve seen one too many smart people...
Let's take a moment to marvel at how bad the original USDA food pyramid was
http://mdickens.me/2025/05/21/food_pyramid/ The original 1992 version of the USDA Food Pyramid was bad. So bad that people who scrupulously followed the...
Can you maintain lean mass in a calorie deficit?
http://mdickens.me/2025/05/01/resistance_training_calorie_deficit/ If you’re losing weight, does lifting weights reduce how much muscle you lose? Is it...
Why would AI companies use human-level AI to do alignment research?
http://mdickens.me/2025/04/25/bootstrapped_alignment/ Many plans for how to safely build superintelligent AI have a critical section that goes like this:...
Do Protests Work? A Critical Review
http://mdickens.me/2025/04/18/protest_outcomes_critical_review/ (Note for email readers: Some parts of this post might not work properly in email clients. If...
The Triple-Interaction-Effects Argument
http://mdickens.me/2025/04/10/triple_interaction_effects/ In this post I will explain the most impressive argument I heard in 2024. First, some context:...
You can now read my reading notes
http://mdickens.me/2025/03/31/new_reading_notes/ Since 2015, I have been taking notes on most articles I read. I figured other people might find them useful,...