Sede Vacante … What happens now?
Friends,
Sede Vacante.
Pope Francis I has died—lux aeterna luceat ei—and the Chair of St. Peter is empty. If you are Roman Catholic, the implications are clear. If you are a Christian outside of the Communion of Rome, this is still an important time in the life of the global church that is worth at least your prayers, but perhaps your attention as well.
If God still works in the world through His Church, and if His Church includes more than just your church, then our prayers for the next Pope are important.
(As an aside: this may be the first time in history that the offices of both the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Pope are vacant. Does anyone have more to offer on that front?)
So, what happens next and who might be the next Pope?
In the weeks and months to come, we will see a process that recently received the Hollywood treatment unfold in realtime.
The process, in an entirely overly-simplified nutshell, looks like this:
Cardinals (Bishops who are appointed to a higher leadership Office by the Pope himself) who are eligible to vote for the next Pope travel to the Vatican. There are currently 135 of them across the world.
The Conclave begins, at which time the voting Cardinals are cut off from the outside world and sequestered in the Vatican. They spend their time praying, talking, and voting.
Voting continues—using write-in ballots only—until there is a two-thirds majority for one man. This can take as long as it needs to take.
Once a new Pope is successfully chosen, the black smoke that has been pouring from a chimney near St. Peter’s turns white. Once this chimney begins smoking after the first vote, you should try to live stream it in the corner of your screen just to try to experience the thrill of the color change. It may be days, weeks, or even months. But it is worth keeping on in the background when possible. I was writing a paper at the Starbucks on Alpha Rd near the Galleria when the smoke changed for the election of Pope Francis I.
The newly elected Pope prays in the Room of Tears where the weight of the office is experienced for the first time. The new Pope then also selects his Papal name. Francis was the first Pope to select the name Francis, making him “Francis I.” His predecessor was the sixteenth Pope to take the name Benedict, making him Benedict XVI.
If the announcement of Sede Vacante (“the seat is empty”) is the bookend that kicks off the Conclave, then Habemus Papum (“We have a Pope”) is the other bookend that ends it. The new Pope greets those gathered in the Vatican.
So, who is going to be the next Pope?
If history is any indication: we have no idea. Any Roman Catholic baptized male is technically eligible.
Of the last three Conclaves, only one elected a Pope who was considered a "frontrunner" before the conclave began. With no official candidates or formal campaigning for the office, anything can happen. It is perhaps most likely that none of the leading candidates—a few of whom I highlight below—are selected.
Before exploring some of the factors that may play into the thinking of those voting for the next Pope, there is one Dallas connection to this process that is worth sharing:
Bishop Kevin Farrell—the former Roman Catholic Bishop of Dallas whom I had the honor of meeting in 2015—is now currently serving as camerlengo: running the Vatican in the absence of a Pope.
I cannot begin to imagine the various factors occupying the minds and hearts of those Cardinals who will be voting once the conclave begins in the coming weeks. But I can imagine that some of the factors listed below will play some sort of role in their decision.
Nationality: Pope Francis I was the first non-European Pope. It could be that a desire to select another non-European Pope, likely from Asia or Africa, remains strong among the current Cardinals.
Ideology: The modern political distinctions of conservative/progressive are not always helpful parallels to the spectrum that exists within the Roman Catholic hierarchy, but the last two Popes have appeared to reside within two different ends of that spectrum.
Those noted below as “B16” are considered more in line with the more traditional agenda of the late Pope Benedict XVI.
Those noted as “F1” were either appointed by or otherwise visibly united to the agenda on the late Pope Francis I, which could be faithfully described as more progressive than that of his predecessor.
I have to imagine that many of the Cardinals would like to see someone who could unify both parties well, but there is also often a tendency to course correct in these sort of elections.
Age: This one cuts both ways. Stability is nice, so perhaps a younger Pope seems attractive. But, older is not always bad, as some Cardinals may be wary of selecting a Pope who will be in office for decades.
Some (Potentially?) Likely Candidates
I plan to update this list in the weeks to come in Apple Notes as things develop. If you want to be invited to the shared Note to see these changes, let me know! Major caveat: I am by no means an expert on the current state of the Roman Curia.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70, F1)
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada, 80, Appointed by B16, kept on by F1)
Cardinal Luis Tagle (Philippines, 67, F1)
Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72, B16, Popular among Euro and African cardinals)
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69, F1)
Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn (Austria, 80, B16 and F1)
Cardinal Robert Prevost (America, 69, F1)
Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79, Very much in the B16 mold)
Cardinal Reinhard Marx (Germany, 71, Very much in the F1 mold)