The Fed's dovish case is now "no cuts," hike at 60%
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · Edition 1
The macro board is holding two ideas that don't sit easily together: an 85.4% chance the Fed cuts nothing in 2026, and a 59.5% chance it actually hikes. When "no easing" and "tightening" are both the base case, the direction of the next move has flipped. Elsewhere, the Hormuz story is quietly falling apart in one market while another still keeps the diplomacy alive.
💵 Macro
Fed rate hike in 2026?
At 59.5%, up from 54.5% when we last looked, the market leans toward the Fed's next move being up. Read it next to the "no cuts in 2026" market at 85.4% and the picture sharpens: not a Fed on hold, but a Fed with a tightening bias priced as more likely than not. The easing narrative that dominated the year has no home on this board.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
At 85.4% and up 7.4 points in a month, the third-biggest mover on the board, the "zero cuts" case has firmed considerably. On its own it just says the Fed sits still. Paired with the 59.5% hike market, it says something sharper: standing pat is now the dovish outcome, and the risk is priced to the upside.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
At 7%, this is the single biggest monthly mover on the entire board, down nearly 40 points. The fear that Iran starts charging for passage has all but evaporated. Which makes the neighboring market awkward.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
At 29%, a formal US-Iran deal is still priced as a live possibility, on volume running 2.6x its weekly average. The tension with the fees market is real: one says the coercive threat has faded to 7%, the other keeps a 29% chance of a diplomatic instrument built to resolve that same threat. If the pressure is gone, what exactly is the 29% negotiating over?
⚙️ Tech
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
At 14.5%, up 7 points in a month and the fourth-biggest mover on the board, this is the largest Tech repricing today, on volume 3.8x its weekly average. A public listing by year-end remains the underdog view, but it has closed distance fast.
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
At 8.5%, the market still treats this as unlikely. What stands out is the flow: 6.4x its weekly volume average, the largest such anomaly on the board. The price barely moved, down 4 points, while attention spiked. Something pulled eyes to a fringe scenario without changing the odds.
📈 Crypto
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
At 21%, down 13.5 points in a month, this is the second-biggest mover on the board. A deep drawdown has grown notably less likely. Yet the "ETH reaches $2,000 in August" market sits at 56.5%. One leans toward a bounce, the other prices real downside odds. Both cannot be the consensus ETH trajectory.
🎬 Culture
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
At 19.5%, up from 15.5% last edition, and the second-most traded market on the board with volume 4x its weekly average. That flow makes it more than a gaming curiosity: the odds of two streamers clearing a hardcore run drew as much attention as anything on the macro side today.
The Fed board has quietly inverted the year's story: the calm outcome is no cuts, and the tail is a hike. When "nothing happens" is the dovish case, the whole conversation has moved.
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