The Fed hold splits: 80.5% October, 21.5% December
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · Edition 1
The macro board is running a two-step. The October Fed hold is heavily favored at 80.5%, but December flips: only a 21.5% chance of no change. The market leans toward a pause now and a move by year-end, and it is repricing both ends of that sequence in real time.
💵 Macro
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
At 80.5%, up five points in a month, the October hold is now the board's second-biggest mover and, at the same time, its most-traded market, with volume running 3.6x its own weekly average. The number that earns the ink is the contrast: 80.5% for an October hold against just 21.5% for a December hold. The near-term lean toward patience does not extend one meeting out.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
The December no-change market sits at 21.5%, down three points on the month and the third-biggest mover on the board, with volume at 3.2x its weekly average. Read alongside the October hold at 80.5%, the pair sketches a curve that heavily favors a pause now and a near-80% chance of a move by December. The question is not whether the Fed acts, but when.
⚙️ Tech
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
At 69.5%, this is the biggest mover on the board, up 62.6 points in a single month, with volume at 3.7x its weekly average. A month ago a Google Arena crown was a long shot. Now it is the base case. The leaderboard is a zero-sum race, so a 62-point jump for Google is the clearest measure available of how far Anthropic and OpenAI have slipped in the same window.
🌍 Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
At 86.5%, up six points on the month and the second-most-traded market on the board at 2.3x its weekly average, the ceasefire-through-October question leans firmly toward holding. The tension sits underneath: Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, still prices a 7.5% chance of changing hands. The board heavily favors the truce surviving the month while leaving the underlying Iran risk unresolved.
🗳️ Politics
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$84k changed hands in 24 hours, roughly 6x the daily baseline, and the price did not move a cent from 6.5%. Heavy flow, zero repricing. The market has absorbed real size without reconsidering a near-floor price. Whatever moved through here left the consensus exactly where it found it.
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Same pattern, different continent. $78k in a day, about 6x baseline, and the price held flat at 70.7%. A market most Western readers have never glanced at is taking real volume without budging. The contrast with Harris is the point: one flat market sits near zero, the other near a settled Yes, and both shrugged off the flow identically.
The Fed board agrees on October and disagrees on December, which is another way of saying the market has stopped debating whether and started debating when.
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