Anthropic IPO leaps to 70%, $4T mark still at 11%
Thursday, August 13, 2026 · Edition 1
Anthropic is the story on two contracts, and they don't quite agree. The market now leans heavily toward a public listing by October, yet the same board treats the most bullish private valuation as a long shot. Meanwhile the Fed picks: the soft-landing script is the one scenario nobody's paying for.
⚙️ Tech
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
At 70.5%, this is the biggest mover on the board, up 46 points in a month across 34 markets. A listing has gone from coin-flip-adjacent to firmly favored. Hold that thought against the valuation market below, because the two prices are describing very different companies.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
11.2% here, against 70.5% for a listing by October. The board leans toward Anthropic going public this fall while pricing the $4T private mark as unlikely. Read together, that implies a debut well below the most aggressive private-market number. Today's volume ran nearly 7x its weekly average, the sharpest volume anomaly on the board.
💵 Macro
Fed rate hike in 2026?
54.5%, and the most-traded contract on the board by a wide margin. Down 11 points on the month, the second-biggest mover in the set, but still a coin flip leaning toward a hike. That the busiest market on the board can't get off the fence is itself the signal.
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5% that the Fed delivers exactly one cut this year. Pair that with the 54.5% hike market and the arithmetic is stark: the board heavily favors either a hike or a hold, and prices the tidy "one-and-done" easing at under one in ten. The soft landing is the scenario with no bid.
📈 Crypto
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
23.5%, up from 19.5% since last covered, the third-biggest mover on the board. A one-in-four chance of a 30%-plus drawdown before year-end sits oddly next to a market that treats BTC comfortably above $60K today. Both can be technically true. The gap between them is the interesting part.
🎬 Culture
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day gross at least $900M domestically by August 31?
62.7%, drifting up from 57.9% since last covered, on the fifth-most-traded contract on the board. With the window closing August 31 and the number climbing, the market leans toward a clean $900M finish. A rare item where the prices and the calendar are pointing the same direction.
Anthropic's two prices want a public listing without the private-market glory, and the Fed board wants anything but a soft landing. The consensus everywhere today is on the messy outcome.
Inteldiction is an editorial publication observing prediction market activity. Nothing here is investment, financial, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. Past prices do not guarantee future outcomes. Always consult a licensed professional before making any financial decisions.