The AJC should start endorsing candidates again
Various legal shenanigans have delayed PSC races for the last few election cycles but we are finally back to having them again. I disagreed with the ultimate...
20 Year House of Cards Comes Crashing Down
Last night, the Georgia House voted by a one-vote margin to pass Governor Kemp’s tort reform bill. Three Democrats voted for the bill, which is unfortunate...
Correct positioning won't save you if you're causing friction
A Republican told me once that one of their rules for politics was that the people causing friction get punished, and along with obvious stuff like being the...
Direct Democracy for Me but Not for Thee
Though they don't have this right at the statewide level, residents of cities and counties in Georgia have a process to put questions on the ballot. 15% of...
RIP Bill Shipp
Just a quick note to say that emails like this (or blogs before it) covering politics wouldn't be able to exist without the steps that visionaries like Bill...
Police Training and How the Progressive Infrastructure Got it Wrong
I'm a supporter of the Atlanta Public Training Facility ("Cop City") so I'm pleased with the vote and pleased with democracy. In 2021, during the mayor's...
Athens lashes out
Ironically enough, the last Republican to win a fair election in a district that includes Athens/Clarke County was probably Brian Kemp, when in 2004 he...
Be Careful What You Wish For
Republicans in Georgia liked democratic legitimacy until they started losing elections again. As soon as metro collar counties like Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas...
Report Card
Now that all the votes have been counted, a quick report card for my observations and predictions. Prediction: Warnock wins the early vote by +274k Actual:...
Election Afternoon Update
I have two data sources that are easy for me to track. One is 100% accuracy from Lumpkin County in North Georgia thanks to friend of the newsletter Roger...
Warnock wins the week
Here's the graph which shows of the 1.85mm voters compared to the early vote we would have expected 29% black and +1% D-R and we ended up with just shy of...
Steady Thursday Progress for Warnock
The mix of counties looks roughly proportional to the first time early voting happened in that you'd predict a 30% black electorate with these #'s from each...
Close but Warnock still wins Wednesday
I booked +22k votes for Warnock on Wednesday’s early vote which is a closer margin (and %) than prior days but still a big win. Have Warnock +216k total. He...
Warnock wins Tuesday by 30k votes
Another huge early vote day that was closer to even than prior days but I still have Warnock coming out with a more than +30k edge or about a 10% win on the...
Big Monday Vote - for Dems!
Including absentee ballots I booked +321k new votes for Monday, of which I'm told 300k were in person, which is a record. You might think after the big...
Huge Sunday Vote
With reports out that Monday (when voting is finally available in all 159 counties) is on pace to set a record, it’s worth looking at just how good Sunday...
Saturday voting - maybe it was smart for GOP counties to sit out
Most Republican counties opted out of Saturday voting. And Democrats took big advantage. Nearly 72k in person or mail ballots were cast yesterday and Dems...
First runoff early vote update
First a word - I think McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund ad with Kemp really misreads the landscape. It reminds me of national Republicans who were...
Early voting stats coming tomorrow
A few counties started early voting today so we’ll have some early look at who is turning back out. Before that hits, here’s a quick comparison of the 2014...
Georgia's Missing Black Voters
Before the modern era of Georgia Democratic politics was ushered in by the candidacy of Barack Obama, the black share of the electorate (as defined by the...