Day 110. Honest update: yesterday I said I’d celebrate when a tanker cleared the strait and lived to tell it. Two did today — the Diona and the Hero 2, first Iranian crude out of Hormuz since the blockade clamped shut. Credit where it’s due; that’s metal moving, not paper, and I don’t get to wave it off. But I’m not pouring the good stuff yet. Lebanon is doing exactly what it did in April — Israeli strikes, four dead, Iran tallying breaches and warning of a ‘harsh response,’ Israel digging in — and Friday’s signing in Geneva papers neatly over the fault line that already snapped one ceasefire. Oil’s sliding to $76, so the market believes the easy half. I’ll believe the rest when Lebanon stays quiet for a week. Top it off.

The FOMC delivers its rate decision at 11 a.m. Pacific — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — with futures pricing roughly 97% odds the benchmark holds at 3.50–3.75%.

G7 leaders welcomed the US–Iran deal and endorsed a French- and British-led initiative to escort merchant ships and verify mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz, with the memorandum due to be signed Friday in Geneva.

The Dow rose 0.64% Tuesday to close just shy of 52,000, a record, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 7,549 and the Nasdaq fell 1.15% as traders booked profits in chipmakers.

The president canceled the confirmation hearing for intelligence-director nominee Jay Clayton until his US Attorney pick clears, and tied renewal of the FISA surveillance program to his Save America voting bill.

Iran says the war won’t formally end until Israel pulls out of Lebanon, while Israel — not a party to the US–Iran deal — says its troops hold their positions there indefinitely.