Four Fingers News — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Day 111. So it’s signed. Trump and Pezeshkian put pen to the 14-point MOU over dinner at Versailles, and it’s now “in effect” — a phrase doing heroic work. The formal ceremony is tomorrow in Switzerland, which tells you how settled the first one was. I’ll give the deal its due: Iranian crude is moving through Hormuz again, and the market believes it — oil slid under $76. But here’s the part nobody’s underlining. Israel says the deal doesn’t bind it in Lebanon and that it hasn’t even seen the details; Iran says the same paper requires Israel out. A deal whose signatories can’t agree on what it says isn’t a deal, it’s two press releases sharing a room. Free passage runs sixty days. Then we renegotiate. Leave the bottle.
US and Iran Put the Deal on Paper; Blockade Comes Off, Hormuz to Reopen
Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a physical copy of their 14-point accord Thursday, a day after putting it to paper electronically — Trump from a Versailles dinner with Macron, Pezeshkian from Tehran. The text declares a permanent end to operations on all fronts, eases financial restrictions on Iran, and routes the nuclear question to later technical talks; Washington says it will begin pulling its naval blockade at once and finish within 30 days. Mediator Pakistan said Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz promptly, though Trump has warned that dissatisfaction could still send the US back to force.
Oil Slides and Futures Climb as the Iran Risk Drains Out
Crude slid Thursday morning — WTI near $74.70, Brent near $78.40 — as the signed deal eased fears of a Hormuz supply shock. US stock futures pointed higher, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.4% and the S&P 0.8%, clawing back Wednesday’s post-Fed selloff.
Warsh Holds the Line, Then Pencils In a Hike
The FOMC voted 12–0 to keep its benchmark at 3.50–3.75% in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, then erased the lone 2026 cut it had penciled in this spring: nine of 18 officials now see a hike by year-end, lifting the median path to 3.8%. Warsh declined to submit a dot of his own, calling forward guidance unhelpful.
Israel Says Its Troops Stay, Deal or No Deal
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the IDF will hold its security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza “without any time limit,” and Israeli strikes carried on even as the US–Iran text declared operations over on every front. Iran calls the war unfinished until Israel leaves southern Lebanon; a US official said the accord makes no such demand.
Opinions Land Thursday as the Term Runs Out
The Supreme Court issues decisions Thursday with the term’s heaviest cases still open — birthright citizenship and the fate of Temporary Protected Status among them. The justices have already tossed Trump’s unilateral tariffs, ruling Congress never handed him that power.
Ronaldo Returns to a Draw; Kane Sinks Croatia
Cristiano Ronaldo came back for Portugal, but Wissa’s goal earned DR Congo a historic draw in Houston. Harry Kane scored twice to beat Croatia in Dallas, Luis Díaz carried Colombia past Uzbekistan in Mexico City, and Yirenkyi’s late strike sank Panama for Ghana.
Mariners Edge Baltimore 3–1
Seattle topped the Orioles 3–1, a two-run single in the seventh providing the margin. After the weekend spiked near 90°, Puget Sound has settled back into the low 70s.