Four days of feeds, five moves on the map: two oil chokepoints under threat at once, occupied ground changing hands in south Lebanon, a new commander for Europe's longest front line, and a Hindu Kush valley remade by water.

1. The US–Iran war deepens — and spreads across the region's map

The US military completed its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, extending attacks to provinces not previously hit, from Tabriz in the northwest to the far south, while President Trump threatened to bomb the underground nuclear site known as Pickaxe Mountain "very heavily." Iran answered with attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan; Deutsche Welle reports Jordan risks becoming the war's newest frontline state, and the Guardian confirmed an 18th US service member killed there. Defense Secretary Hegseth put the war's cost at $37.5bn so far, as the Pentagon seeks billions more. A war fought over Iran now touches at least four other countries hosting US forces. (BBC, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, NYT, DW)

2. The Houthis declare a Red Sea blockade on Saudi Arabia

The New York Times reports that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia has declared a blockade of the Red Sea against Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the widening war; the Guardian's live coverage adds that the group warned shipping companies their tankers risk attack if they call at Saudi Red Sea ports. The geography is the story: the Houthis sit above Bab el-Mandeb, the strait guarding the Red Sea's southern gate and the route to Suez. With Hormuz already contested, two of the world's great oil chokepoints are under simultaneous threat. (NYT, The Guardian)

3. Lebanon: the army moves in as Israel steps back — under fire

Under a US-brokered framework, the Lebanese army began deploying into a "pilot zone" — three southern towns — as Israeli troops withdrew from part of the territory they occupied during the conflict with Hezbollah. The first steps were tense: the Lebanese army accused Israeli troops of firing as its forces deployed, per the NYT, and a former Biden administration official told Al Jazeera she doubts the scheme will end in full withdrawal, arguing Israel will keep pushing limits. Still, this is that rare thing — occupied ground formally changing hands, the map redrawn by agreement rather than by force. (BBC, Al Jazeera, NYT)

4. Ukraine replaces its top general after nationwide protests

President Zelensky dismissed commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi after days of protests triggered by the earlier removal of popular Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who had clashed with Syrskyi over how to fight the war; protesters and many soldiers backed Fedorov's drone-centred vision, the NYT reports. In a late-night address, Zelensky named Mykhailo Drapatyi — a decorated general popular inside and outside the country — as the new head of the armed forces, and offered Fedorov a "prominent position" in government. Who commands a 1,000-km front line helps decide where that line sits on next year's map. (BBC, The Guardian, NYT)

5. Flash floods erase homes in Afghanistan's Nuristan

Flash floods swept through a city in Nuristan, an isolated province in eastern Afghanistan, killing at least 23 people, injuring around 80 and leaving more than 100 missing, as rescue crews searched the rubble of destroyed houses and the national disaster agency confirmed "severe financial and human losses." Nuristan's steep, narrow Hindu Kush valleys funnel sudden rain into torrents, and the same remoteness that isolates the province slows every rescue. Geography redraws the human map too — not with treaties, but with water. (The Guardian, NYT)

The data behind it

One number ran through this week's stories: $37.5bn, the Pentagon's bill for a month of war with Iran. A sheet from our map library puts figures like that in proportion. Our World in Data's map of military spending as a share of GDP (2025, SIPRI data) shows a world mostly in pale pink — the majority of countries spend under 2% of GDP on their militaries — crossed by a dark band: Algeria and Saudi Arabia in deep red, Israel and Myanmar darker still, Russia crimson across eleven time zones. And one country rendered nearly black: Ukraine, whose defence burden is so far beyond every other nation that it sits at the very end of the map's scale. This week's headlines — chokepoints, blockades, generals — are the surface; this map is the ledger underneath. Data: Our World in Data (CC BY).

Sources:

• BBC: US renews strikes on Iran · Iran war has cost US $37.5bn · Why Iran is risking so much over the Strait of Hormuz · Lebanese army deploying in 'pilot zone' · Zelensky sacks top army commander
• The Guardian: Middle East crisis live · Third US service member killed in Jordan · Zelenskyy fires army chief · Afghanistan flash floods
• Al Jazeera: Tehran attacks Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan · US expands strikes on 11th night · Lebanese army deploys in 'pilot zones' · Ex-official doubts pilot zones
• NYT: Houthis declare Red Sea blockade · Houthis edge closer to entering war · Lebanese army accuses Israeli troops of firing · Zelensky dismisses top general · What to know about Drapatyi · Flash floods kill at least 23 in Afghanistan
• Deutsche Welle: Jordan risks becoming latest frontline state

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