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May 4, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — May 04, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
This Week in Macro
Stock futures held steady as investors digest ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war, which is expected to keep oil prices elevated. This stability suggests that markets are currently resilient despite external pressures, reinforcing the "Rising Growth / Rising Inflation" regime. (The Wall Street Journal, CNBC)
Treasury yields are flat as investors digest latest GDP and inflation data →
Japan's recent currency measures are seen as temporary fixes against the backdrop of rising oil prices, which could further weaken the yen. A weaker yen generally boosts inflation, which could complicate Japan's economic recovery and impact global trade dynamics. (MarketWatch)
The Fed maintained interest rates, but dissent among board members reached a level not seen since 1992. This divergence indicates growing uncertainty about future monetary policy, which could lead to increased volatility in credit markets and consumer borrowing costs. (CNBC)
Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992 →
A key inflation gauge jumped to its highest level in three years, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation. This data could pressure central banks to act more aggressively, impacting investment strategies and consumer spending. (Associated Press)
Key inflation gauge jumps to highest level in 3 years... →
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing significant fluctuations in energy prices, with Exxon Mobil's CEO predicting that the market hasn't yet felt the full impact. Higher energy costs can lead to increased inflation and affect consumer spending power, further embedding the current inflationary regime. (CNBC)
Exxon Mobil CEO expects higher oil prices due to Iran war: ‘The market hasn’t seen the full impact’ →
Trade tensions are heating up again, with Trump announcing plans to raise EU auto tariffs. This could escalate trade disputes and affect global supply chains, leading to higher prices for consumers and potential market instability. (CNBC)
Citi UK CEO: 'Phenomenal' market resilience is keeping recession risk at bay — for now →
California's proposed billionaire tax highlights the growing divide in fiscal policies between states. This could impact investor sentiment and capital allocation, particularly as high-tax states may drive wealthy individuals to relocate, affecting local economies. (MarketWatch)

Bottom line: Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures remain dominant forces, keeping markets on edge while the Fed's cautious stance adds to the uncertainty.

Ted's Take

This week’s news underscores the persistent tension between rising inflation and geopolitical instability, reinforcing our current "Rising Growth / Rising Inflation" regime. As the Fed navigates dissent among board members and the potential for aggressive moves to combat inflation, I’m watching for signs of sustained volatility in credit markets that could signal a regime shift. If energy prices continue to surge and consumer spending falters, it could solidify a precarious balance we're currently maintaining. In the macro landscape, smaller drawdowns are my focus; I’d reconsider my positioning if we see significant credit stress or a hard pivot from the Fed. Let's keep our eyes on the road ahead, focusing on resilience over short-term gains.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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