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August 3, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — August 03, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
This Week in Macro
The U.S. launched significant strikes on Iran following an attempted attack on American troops, escalating geopolitical tensions. This could lead to higher oil prices and increased market volatility, as investors react to the potential for conflict in the Middle East (BBC News).
US launches 'powerful' strikes on Iran after attempted attack on American troops →
U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2, while mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in a year, indicating a tightening housing market. Sluggish growth combined with rising borrowing costs could dampen consumer spending and slow down the economic recovery (BBC News, MarketWatch).
US economic growth slows to 1.5% in second quarter →
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, but three members voted to hike, reflecting internal divisions. This uncertainty about future monetary policy can lead to market swings as investors try to gauge the Fed's next move in a rising inflation environment (MarketWatch, CNBC).
Divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike →
Oil prices are fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions, with prices spiking after U.S. strikes on Iran. The oil market remains sensitive to developments in the region, which can impact inflation and broader market sentiment (CNBC, BBC News).
Oil prices move higher as Iran threatens response to latest U.S. strikes →
A Japanese town wrestles with identity after protests over its first mosque →
In trade policy, Trump is pushing for new tariffs on Iran, despite minimal trade with the U.S., and his previous tariffs have already impacted companies like Shein. This ongoing trade tension could create further market disruptions, especially for sectors reliant on imports (CNBC, BBC News).
Trump says sanctions bill should include tariffs on Iran, despite 'trivial' trade with U.S. →
Shein swings to a loss as Trump trade rules hit sales →
The Red Cross declared a crisis over blood supply shortages in the U.S., highlighting domestic challenges that could strain healthcare resources. This situation may prompt government intervention, potentially impacting fiscal policy and public sentiment (BBC News).
Red Cross declares crisis over blood supply shortage in US for second time its history →
The divided Fed's decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious stance amid rising inflation, which aligns with the current macro regime of rising growth and inflation. However, the low conviction margin indicates that market participants remain on edge about future economic conditions (CNBC).
Treasury sell-off continues after divided Fed holds interest rates steady →

Bottom line: Geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates are creating a complex landscape for investors, underscoring the importance of navigating these challenges to protect wealth in a volatile market.

Ted's Take

This week's developments underscore the increasingly fragile balance we find ourselves in within the macro landscape. Rising geopolitical tensions, especially with U.S. strikes on Iran, could lead to a spike in oil prices that further complicates our already shaky growth and inflation outlook. The Fed's hesitation to adjust rates amid these pressures reflects a broader uncertainty that I'm keenly watching; if we see any signs of a shift towards stagflation, it'll be time to reassess my positioning. With a low conviction margin, even subtle shifts in consumer sentiment or further escalation in the Middle East could trigger larger market swings, so I’m staying vigilant.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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