First off, if you gather the data, I will be more than happy to run the statistical analysis on it. Second, my working hypothesis would be that crimes would go up in the Summer because people are more likely to be going out at night than in the winter (darker earlier, colder). This means more opportunities for criminals to encounter victims in the dark, when they’re outside of their homes. As my criminologist colleagues argue, crime requires three elements: a potential perpetrator, a potential victim, and a place where the two come together. If people are more mobile in the Summer, you’re going to get more of the third.
First off, if you gather the data, I will be more than happy to run the statistical analysis on it. Second, my working hypothesis would be that crimes would go up in the Summer because people are more likely to be going out at night than in the winter (darker earlier, colder). This means more opportunities for criminals to encounter victims in the dark, when they’re outside of their homes. As my criminologist colleagues argue, crime requires three elements: a potential perpetrator, a potential victim, and a place where the two come together. If people are more mobile in the Summer, you’re going to get more of the third.