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August 19, 2026

TLN -11.0% (2.9σ) | HH $2.78 | 12 others

ENERGY BRIEF · Wed Aug 19, 2026 · session Aug 18
THE NUMBER
$2.78
Henry Hub front month
+3.2%, 1.4σ

Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Aug 24 - 28 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Aug 26 - Sep 01, 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 79 total (13, 12, 12, 11, 11, 10, 10)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.78 (+3.2%, 1.4σ)

↳ Henry Hub rose 3.2% despite EIA lowering price forecasts and headlines citing storage oversupply and mild weather headwinds, suggesting the move contradicts reported fundamental pressures.

Front/second (U26/V26): -0.027 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.120 (H 2.920 / J 2.800)

Storage 3153 Bcf (+36 w/w, +182 vs 5-yr, -33 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-05): 121.8 Bcf/d, +3.8% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

ERCOT North DA $42.01 (prev $36.37) - heat rate 15.1 (prev 13.5) - spark $21.19 (prev $16.19)

PJM West DA $59.86 (prev $72.32) - heat rate 21.6 (prev 26.9) - spark $39.04 (prev $52.14)

CAISO SP15 DA $43.33 (prev $46.07) - heat rate 15.6 (prev 17.1) - spark $22.51 (prev $25.90)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €63.65/MWh (~$21.74/MMBtu) +3.1% (+3.1%, 0.7σ)

JKM $21.89/MMBtu +1.2%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $19.11/MMBtu; TTF−HH $18.97

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $84.94 (+0.5%, 0.1σ)

Brent $91.02 (+0.2%, 0.0σ)

Energy equities

TIER 2

TLN $317.66 (-11.0%, 2.9σ)

Talen Energy's stock dropped 11% after the company missed earnings expectations, with profit per share falling below benchmark estimates. This earnings disappointment triggered immediate market repricing, as investors reassessed the company's near-term profitability outlook. The decline wiped away confidence in near-term cash generation despite a significant $12.23 million investment injection from Diversify Advisory Services, suggesting the market weighted actual earnings misses more heavily than capital infusions. GuruFocus data shows the stock trading at $317.66 versus a GF Value estimate of $515.80, indicating substantial perceived undervaluation following the miss. Watch whether Talen provides revised guidance or commentary on operational challenges driving the earnings shortfall—this will determine whether the selloff represents capitulation or signals deeper structural concerns.

  • Diversify Advisory Services LLC Makes New $12.23 Million Investment in Talen Energy Corporation $TLN - marketbeat.com
  • Talen (TLN) Results and Estimates: Profit Per Share Falls Below Its Benchmark; Market Follow-Through: The Market Price Declines 11.00% in the Latest Reading - Earnings Revision Report - Vinanet
  • A Look at Talen Energy Corp (TLN) After 11.0% Decline -- GF Value $515.80 vs Price $317.66 - GuruFocus
TIER 2

CEG $266.83 (-3.9%, 1.7σ)

Constellation Energy dropped 3.9% Tuesday alongside a broader nuclear sector pullback that saw peers Oklo and NuScale fall 5% each. The selloff occurred despite Bernstein reiterating support for the stock on nuclear demand fundamentals. President Capital trimmed its price target to $342 from $352 but maintained a buy rating, suggesting the move reflects valuation reset rather than thesis deterioration. Multiple analysts still see 30% upside, with GuruFocus flagging the stock as undervalued after the decline. The transmission to price appears technical rather than fundamental—a sector-wide de-rating possibly triggered by broader market conditions, not company-specific news. Constellation's core thesis around data center demand for nuclear power remains intact across analyst commentary. Watch whether the stock stabilizes above recent lows or if the sector rotation accelerates further, as that will signal whether this is a healthy pullback in a secular uptrend or the start of sustained momentum reversal.

  • Bernstein reiterates Constellation Energy stock rating on nuclear demand - Investing.com
  • President Capital Adjusts Price Target on Constellation Energy to $342 From $352, Keeps Buy Rating - marketscreener.com
  • Constellation Energy Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $347.67, Implies 30% Upside - TradingView

KMI $32.87 (+1.7%, 1.2σ)

↳ Kinder Morgan gained 1.7% as the stock traded near multi-year highs supported by dividend and forward guidance, though an insider sale was also disclosed.

VST $140.52 (-3.8%, 1.2σ)

↳ Vistra fell 3.8% despite multiple large institutional investors including BlackRock ($4.61B), Mitsubishi UFJ, and Energy Income Partners making new or increasing positions in the stock.

NRG $115.56 (-5.6%, 1.1σ)

↳ NRG Energy declined 5.6% after BNP Paribas cut its price target to $221 from $232 (keeping Outperform), outweighing positive developments including a potential Houston tax break and a bankruptcy bid opportunity.

Quiet: WMB +2.3% · LNG +2.6% · NVDA -2.3% · AR +1.8% · RRC +1.3% · DVN +0.5% · EQT +0.2% · MSFT +0.3%

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← Newer CEG +2.8% (1.1σ) | HH $2.81 | 10 others Older → ERCOT North +31.6% (3.1σ) | HH $2.69 | 5 others
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