NVDA -2.9% (1.9σ) | HH $3.17 | 9 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 14 - 18 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 16 - 22 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 28 total (3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 31 total (5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $3.17 (-1.1%, 0.4σ)
↳ Freeport LNG outage removing ~5 Bcf/week of demand and South Central storage injection redirecting regional supply are offsetting factors, with the modest decline suggesting the outage impact is being partially absorbed by increased storage builds.
Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.327 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.101 (H 2.759 / J 2.658)
Storage 3500 Bcf (+85 w/w, +22 vs 5-yr, -131 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)
Power
ERCOT North DA $60.53 (prev $46.26) - heat rate 19.1 (prev 14.4) - spark $36.77 (prev $22.23)
PJM West DA $69.58 (prev $62.13) - heat rate 22.0 (prev 19.4) - spark $45.82 (prev $38.10)
CAISO SP15 DA $61.89 (prev $75.33) - heat rate 19.5 (prev 23.5) - spark $38.13 (prev $51.31)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €78.85/MWh (~$25.89/MMBtu) +1.0%
JKM $25.95/MMBtu +0.3%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.79/MMBtu; TTF−HH $22.72
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $91.49 (+3.6%, 1.3σ)
Brent $104.28 (+4.1%, 1.6σ)
Energy equities
NVDA $230.48 (-2.9%, 1.9σ)
Firmus, an Nvidia-backed data center operator, withdrew its planned $5 billion Australian IPO, citing market volatility as the primary constraint. The company had positioned itself to capitalize on AI infrastructure buildout but found public equity markets unreceptive at current valuations, forcing a strategic pivot. The pullback signals weakening appetite for AI infrastructure plays despite elevated Nvidia demand. IPO cancellations typically telegraph investor skepticism about growth narratives or valuation multiples—here, likely both. This dampens confidence in downstream beneficiaries of Nvidia's chip sales and raises questions about whether AI capex enthusiasm has priced in too much too fast. Nvidia's 2.9% decline reflects contagion from Firmus's retreat. Watch whether Firmus's pivot to a $3 billion private fundraise succeeds and at what valuation. A significant markdown would confirm public markets are pricing AI infrastructure risk more conservatively than private backers.
- Nvidia-Backed Firmus Pulls $5 Billion Australian IPO, Citing Market Volatility - BigGo Finance
- Nvidia-Backed Data Center IPO Collapses—OpenAI Revenue Questions—Apple customers Are Not Price Insensitiv - Benzinga
- Nvidia-Backed Firm Seeks Major Reset After IPO Collapse - TradingView
VST $156.14 (-6.3%, 2.0σ)
↳ Vistra fell 6.3% following a 20% recent run, with upcoming Q3 earnings on November 6 and investor focus on a $4.2 billion nuclear loan commitment creating profit-taking pressure.
LNG $277.88 (+2.1%, 1.7σ)
↳ Barclays raised its Cheniere price target from $279 to $287 and consensus target sits at $306.12, supporting the 2.1% gain despite below-average trading volume.
TLN $359.22 (-5.0%, 1.3σ)
CEG $285.07 (-4.8%, 1.3σ)
↳ Constellation Energy is down 4.8% despite recent positive momentum from the Google 20-year nuclear deal, suggesting profit-taking after the initial enthusiasm or valuation concerns about long-term power contract pricing.
Quiet: KMI +1.4% · RRC +2.4% · DVN +2.2% · WMB +1.2% · NRG -2.1% · EQT +1.2% · AR +1.4%
Friday recall
Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.
- Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
- What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
- Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
- What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?
- HH: Mon 3.07 Tue 3.11 Wed 3.20 Thu 3.17
- H/J: +0.101
- SP15: Mon 66.96 Tue 79.47 Wed 75.33 Thu 61.89
- Storage: +85 Bcf to 3500 (+22 vs 5-yr)