Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 14 - 18 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 16 - 22 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 28 total (2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 6, 9)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 29 total (5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $3.20 (+2.9%, 0.9σ)

↳ Henry Hub front month rose 2.9% as traders positioned ahead of the storage print and assessed hurricane threat impacts on supply.

Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.309 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.109 (H 2.775 / J 2.666)

Storage 3500 Bcf (+85 w/w, +22 vs 5-yr, -131 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

ERCOT North DA $46.26 (prev $43.49) - heat rate 14.4 (prev 14.0) - spark $22.23 (prev $20.14)

PJM West DA $62.13 (prev $57.38) - heat rate 19.4 (prev 18.4) - spark $38.10 (prev $34.03)

CAISO SP15 DA $75.33 (prev $79.47) - heat rate 23.5 (prev 25.5) - spark $51.31 (prev $56.11)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €78.08/MWh (~$25.67/MMBtu) +3.2%

JKM $25.88/MMBtu -0.0%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $22.67/MMBtu; TTF−HH $22.46

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $88.28 (-1.3%, 0.4σ)

Brent $100.20 (-0.4%, 0.1σ)

Energy equities

NRG $108.61 (+4.8%, 1.8σ)

↳ NRG Energy gained 4.8% despite headlines citing PJM delay concerns and target cuts, with the headline-to-price disconnect unexplained by the provided articles.

VST $166.72 (+3.9%, 1.3σ)

↳ Vistra Corp advanced 3.9% as the stock benefits from continued focus on AI electricity demand tailwinds and Wells Fargo's maintained Buy rating.

Amazon capex signal (capex)

↳ Amazon capex signals remain elevated as Wall Street assesses the company's $220 billion capital expenditure commitment to AI infrastructure development.

LNG $272.20 (-1.1%, 0.9σ)

↳ Cheniere Energy declined 1.1% despite Barclays maintaining an Overweight rating, with the move not clearly explained by the provided headlines.

KMI $31.82 (-1.1%, 0.8σ)

↳ Kinder Morgan fell 1.1% as the company lifted force majeure on its Texas-Mexico gas pipeline, though the headline does not clearly explain the price decline.

Quiet: WMB -1.3% · META -2.4% · NVDA -0.7% · TLN +1.4% · RRC -0.5% · EQT -0.3% · AR -0.4% · DVN -0.3% · CEG -0.3%