Indexes

Futures are slipping into the open after Monday's record close as traders weigh a fresh wave of mega-cap earnings and a renewed political squabble around the Federal Reserve. Europe is firmer ahead of the eurozone inflation reading at 5 a.m. Eastern, and Asia closed mixed, with Hong Kong and mainland China rallying on AI infrastructure optimism while Japan slipped.

In the News

Drivers

1. The JOLTS reading at 10 a.m. Eastern is the first labor signal of the week and the first chance to test the soft-landing thesis after Friday's nonfarm payrolls. A reading near 7 million reinforces the steady-as-she-goes labor picture and keeps the rate-cut probability close to current pricing. A drop toward 6.5 million would feed the soft-landing fears that Trump's morning remarks already amplified, and a reading above 7.2 million would pressure the long end of the curve.

2. The eurozone flash CPI at 5 a.m. Eastern is the first clean read on how the Middle East oil shock has pushed through into European consumer prices. The European Central Bank has been telegraphing a careful path; a hot energy-driven print could push the next move on rates from a possible cut to a hold. A cool print would let the rally in European equities continue with bond support.

3. Trump's renewed pressure on Fed Chair Warsh, hours after the swearing-in, is the political wildcard. The 2-year Treasury at 4.04% has already drifted to the low end of its range on the rate-cut hopes the remarks have stoked. Bond and dollar reaction to any further commentary today will tell the story on whether the political-pressure trade has legs.

SPY (S&P 500 ETF): record close into a cautious Tuesday open.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF): another record finish above 27,000.

HPE: blowout Q2 beat sets up a 29% pre-market gap.

MRVL: 102.4 Tbps switch launch and Huang endorsement drive a 12% gap.

QCOM: sliced 50DMA and 200DMA Monday on Nvidia PC chip news.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Yields are anchored ahead of JOLTS, the dollar is steady near 99.20 on the index, and energy is firm but off Monday's intraday highs as ceasefire diplomacy keeps a lid on the geopolitical premium. Each commodity quote below was re-sourced this morning rather than carried over from Monday's close.

Technicals

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,599.96, roughly 7% above its 50-day moving average near 7,080 and a quarter above its 200-day near 6,870; the 7,520 shelf is the first cushion beneath, with 7,400 the next visible level. The Nasdaq Composite at 27,086.81 has converted 27,000 from ceiling to floor and now needs to defend that line through this week's data and earnings calendar. The 10-year yield at 4.46% holds the middle of its 4.40%-to-4.60% three-week range; a sustained break below 4.40% would re-engage the rate-cut bid and pull the 2-year toward 3.90%. A push above 4.60% would re-price the long end and pressure rate-sensitive growth.

Breakouts to flag: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is gapping up about 29% in pre-market to $58.88, clearing every prior 52-week high and turning the prior $45-$48 supply zone into support. Marvell Technology (MRVL) is opening near $219 after a 12% pre-market jump on its 102.4 terabit-per-second AI data center switch announcement and a Jensen Huang endorsement; the stock has now traveled from $89 to $219 in six months. Credo Technology (CRDO) is extending Monday's 12% gain with another 16% pre-market move after reporting fiscal Q4 revenue of $437 million, up 157% year-over-year.

Breakdowns to watch: Qualcomm (QCOM) lost 8.7% Monday to $228.99, cutting through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the Nvidia (NVDA) PC chip news; support thins around $215 and a close below that exposes the spring lows in the $200 area. Intel (INTC) followed Qualcomm lower and is sitting on its 200-day; a confirmed loss of that line opens the door to the May breakout level near $32.

HPE hourly: gap higher on Q2 beat and FY guide raise.

Top Movers

Gainers

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up roughly 29% pre-market to $58.88 after fiscal Q2 earnings of $0.79 per share against $0.54 expected and revenue of $10.7 billion against $9.9 billion expected. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 29%-33% and added an Elliott Management nominee to the board. Implication is positive for the AI infrastructure group: Dell Technologies (DELL), Super Micro (SMCI) and the networking names should trade with sympathy.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is opening near $219, up roughly 12% pre-market after launching a 102.4 terabit-per-second Ethernet switch for AI data centers and receiving public praise from Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang. The stock has more than doubled in six months from $89, riding the same AI networking story powering HPE and Broadcom (AVGO). The signal: the AI build-out is broadening from compute into interconnect and optical.

Credo Technology (CRDO) is up about 16% pre-market on top of Monday's 12% gain after fiscal Q4 revenue of $437 million, up 7.4% sequentially and 157% year-over-year, with GAAP gross margin of 68.2%. Active electrical cables remain the franchise driver and the guide signals hyperscaler orders ramped through the quarter. The implication is that the optical interconnect category is now scaling with the AI server build.

Losers

Abivax (ABVX) is down roughly 30% in early Paris trade after a closer read of Monday's Phase 3 ulcerative colitis data flagged safety signals that buy-side analysts see as a potential overhang on the FDA review. Placebo-adjusted clinical remission rates of 39.3% at 25 mg and 40.3% at 50 mg met the primary endpoint, but the after-hours reversal shows the market is now focused on the safety profile ahead of the Q4 New Drug Application. The implication is a wider risk premium for late-stage biotech names with key FDA dates in 2026.

Qualcomm (QCOM) closed Monday down 8.7% at $228.99 and is indicated weaker again as the market digests Nvidia's Windows PC processor announcement. Investors are punishing the share-loss story in PC modems and questioning Qualcomm's positioning against the new Nvidia-Microsoft (MSFT) silicon. The implication is a structural overhang on the PC growth thesis.

Intel (INTC) followed Qualcomm lower Monday and is weaker again as the Nvidia PC news erodes the case for Intel's Lunar Lake refresh to defend share. The stock is sitting on its 200-day moving average and a close below opens the door to the May breakout level near $32.

Macro Data Today

JOLTS is the first labor reading of a week that ends with Friday's May nonfarm payrolls, and a soft openings reading would re-engage the rate-cut bid that Trump's morning remarks have already lit a match under. The eurozone flash inflation reading is the swing factor for European Central Bank pricing into July: a hot print on energy pass-through complicates the dovish path, while a cool print reinforces the disinflation regime. Factory orders is second-tier but matters more than usual given the run in industrial earnings.

Earnings Today

Before the open: Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Donaldson (DCI), Designer Brands (DBI), G-III Apparel (GIII). BBWI is the name to watch given the consumer-spending question that the JOLTS and Friday payrolls reports will sharpen.

After the close: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings will follow Wednesday, but tonight's PANW report sets the tone for the cybersecurity group. Look for commentary on platformization and net new annual recurring revenue, especially given the long debate about whether the security stack is consolidating to one or two vendors.