Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jun 3
- Broadcom's afternoon report is the session's anchor event.
- The ADP and ISM Services prints together are the first labor-and-activity look since last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures data.
- The Strait of Hormuz situation now drives oil from one day to the next.
Indexes
| Future / Index | Level | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES Futures | 7,614.50 | -0.12% | Pausing after the first close above 7,600 |
| NQ Futures | 30,763.75 | +0.18% | Chip strength offsetting risk-off elsewhere |
| YM Futures | 51,214 | -0.32% | Cyclical names giving back Tuesday's lead |
| RTY Futures | 2,922.60 | -0.38% | Small caps cooling after their breakout day |
| Global Tape | Level | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 68,402 | +2.59% | First close above 68,000; SoftBank, Arm-linked chips |
| Hang Seng | 25,633 | -1.56% | Gave back Tuesday's surge as Asia split |
| Kospi | 8,801 | +0.15% | Held its ground on memory-chip strength |
| FTSE 100 | 10,338 | -0.37% | Energy outperformed; broad index slipped |
| DAX | 24,898 | -0.87% | Autos and chemicals weighed on the index |
| CAC 40 | 8,185 | -0.33% | Luxury names lagged a softer tape |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,083 | -0.41% | Broad pullback as Middle-East risk lingered |
The S&P 500 is opening from its first close above 7,600, with futures pulling back modestly while the Nasdaq holds firm on continued chip-related strength. Tokyo printed a fresh record as the artificial-intelligence trade extended into Asia, while Europe softened on lingering Middle East risk and a firmer oil price.
In the News
Drivers
1. Broadcom's afternoon report is the session's anchor event. Custom-accelerator revenue growth and any reaffirmation of the $100-billion artificial-intelligence chip path for 2027 will set the tone for the entire semiconductor complex into Thursday's open. A clean beat keeps Marvell's Tuesday rally credible; a guide that disappoints would test whether the broader chip move has gotten ahead of itself.
2. The ADP and ISM Services prints together are the first labor-and-activity look since last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures data. A hot ADP combined with services above 52 puts the rate-cut timing question back in play just as the 2-year yield is hugging the floor of its range. A soft pair instead validates the easier-yields tone that has supported equities since Friday.
3. The Strait of Hormuz situation now drives oil from one day to the next. Continued strikes keep the geopolitical premium in crude and pressure transports, airlines and consumer staples that are sensitive to fuel and freight; a credible move toward a cease-fire would let the premium drain quickly and shift the energy trade into a give-back. Watch for any State Department or Iranian foreign ministry comments through the session.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Long-end Treasury yields held the easier tone they took on Tuesday, the dollar firmed slightly, and crude added more than 1% on the renewed Middle East fighting.
| Asset | Level | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | +1.71% | Edged up from Tuesday's 15.77 close |
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.04% | +0.7 bp | Pinned to the lower end of its recent band |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.46% | -0.45% | Inside the 4.40%-4.60% three-week range, eased about 2 basis points |
| 2s10s curve | +42 bp | flatter | Flattened back toward its monthly mean |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.33 | +0.09% | Held the line as oil rose |
| Commodity | Price | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $96.18 | +1.54% | Third up day on Hormuz risk premium |
| Brent Crude | $98.41 | +1.51% | Pushing toward the $100 mark |
| Gold | $4,487.60 | -0.54% | Slipped as money rotated to oil |
| Natural Gas | $3.24 | +2.18% | Strongest commodity move of the morning |
West Texas Intermediate is trading at $96.18 a barrel, its third consecutive daily advance, after Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain added a fresh layer of risk to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent at $98.41 is pressing the round-number $100 level it has not touched since the spring. The dollar inched higher even with yields easing, an unusual combination that says risk premium is driving the bid rather than rate differentials.
Technicals
Tuesday's record finish at 7,609.78 left the broad index more than 550 points above the rising 50-day line in the 7,050s, with the 200-day in the upper 6,800s and first support at 7,520, where buyers stepped in last week. On the Nasdaq Composite, 27,094 keeps the index above the 27,000 line reclaimed Monday and leaves 26,800 as the floor beneath. Treasury yields are easing, with the 10-year at 4.46% inside the lower half of its 4.40% to 4.60% three-week band; a sustained break of 4.40% would tell the market that easier policy is being priced for the summer, while the 2-year near 4.04% continues to press the floor of its own range. The standout setup this morning is Exxon Mobil (XOM), which gapped through resistance in the high $113 area on the oil rally and now has room to test the May peak near $118.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Broadcom (AVGO) — Trading at a fresh high in the pre-market, the shares are extending the breakout from the early-May consolidation in the low $290s ahead of the company's afternoon earnings. The first level buyers will defend on any pullback is the prior peak near $310, with the breakout setup intact while that level holds.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — After Tuesday's record close at $56.15, the shares are following through higher pre-market, with the opening gap toward $50 still acting as the breakout floor. A close back below that gap would put the post-earnings advance into question; holding it keeps the path open toward the upper $50s.
Breakdowns
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Down another 1% in the pre-market at $358 after Tuesday's 4% drop on the $80 billion stock-sale announcement, the shares are testing the $352 area where the new shares were priced. A sustained break of $352 opens the door to the 200-day moving average near $336 as the next support.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) — Slipping 1.6% pre-market as crude's third up-day pressures airline margins, the shares are losing the rising 50-day average near $63 and putting the early-May breakout zone back in play. A close below $61.50 would confirm the breakdown and expose the prior consolidation low near $58.
Top Movers
Gainers
Broadcom (AVGO) is up about 1% pre-market ahead of an after-the-bell report, with analysts modeling adjusted earnings of $2.39 per share. Investors will focus on custom-chip revenue, which grew 106% in the prior quarter, and on whether management still sees a path to more than $100 billion of artificial-intelligence chip revenue in 2027. A strong beat extends the chip rally; a guide that disappoints would test how much the segment has been priced in.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) is down 0.2% in the pre-market at $759.59 after JPMorgan raised its price target to $800 from $475 ahead of the company's first-quarter report tonight; consensus calls for adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share. The cybersecurity firm has met or beaten estimates in every one of its last eighteen quarters. Investors will look for net-new annual recurring revenue, customer retention and any guidance refresh against a backdrop where the shares have nearly doubled in three months.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 1.4% pre-market, riding the third straight up day for crude as the Hormuz risk premium widens. The move is broad across the energy group, with Chevron (CVX) up about 1% and Schlumberger (SLB) up 2%. The setup looks straightforward: until the Strait reopens, the path of least resistance for the integrated and services names is higher.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up another 2% in the pre-market at $296, building on Tuesday's 32% leap, after Stifel lifted its price target to $321 from $230. Multiple sell-side firms followed Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang's endorsement with hikes of their own. The follow-through suggests Tuesday's move had real institutional buying behind it, not just a one-day squeeze.
Losers
Alphabet (GOOGL) is down another 1% pre-market at $358, extending Tuesday's nearly 4% slide on the $80 billion stock-sale plan. The deal includes a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway, but the prospect of so much new equity has investors recalibrating the cost of the artificial-intelligence build-out for the largest technology firms. The drag is showing up across the communication-services sector this morning.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is off 1.6% pre-market as crude tracks higher for a third session, with the rest of the airline group following in sympathy: United Airlines (UAL) is down about 1.5% and Southwest Airlines (LUV) down 1.2%. Jet-fuel costs typically move with the same lag as crude, and a sustained $95-plus tape eats into the margin recovery that powered the carriers' early-year run.
Newmont (NEM) is down 1.3% pre-market at $89.40, tracking gold's pullback from Tuesday's highs as the metal slips half a percent. The gold-miner trade has been a way for investors to lever bullion's run, and any sustained rotation back toward energy and equities tends to come out of the miners first.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Time (ET) | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Private Payrolls (May) | 8:15 AM | +116K | +109K |
| ISM Services PMI (May) | 10:00 AM | 52.0 | 51.6 |
| Factory Orders (April) | 10:00 AM | -3.2% | +4.3% |
| EIA Crude Inventories | 10:30 AM | — | -2.8M bbl |
The ADP private-payrolls reading is the curtain raiser for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, and the bar is low: a print at or above the +116K consensus reads as labor-market firmness and gives the Federal Reserve room to wait on cuts, while a soft report re-engages the bid for rate cuts and pulls the 2-year yield further toward the lower end of its range. ISM Services is the more consequential of the two morning prints; a return above 52 confirms the services sector is reaccelerating into mid-year, while a back-slide under 50 reopens the slowdown debate that the manufacturing print quieted on Monday.
Earnings Today
Pre-Open
Macy's (M) reports its fiscal first quarter with the call at 8:00 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of $4.61 billion, a modest year-on-year decline. The result is a useful read on the lower-to-middle-income consumer at the department-store level, with comparable sales and the full-year guidance refresh the two lines worth watching.
Post-Close
The afternoon slate is heavy. Broadcom (AVGO) headlines with its custom-silicon and artificial-intelligence chip numbers, and CrowdStrike (CRWD) follows with the first major cybersecurity result since its run to record highs. Lululemon (LULU) rounds out the calendar with a premium-consumer read.