Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jun 25
- Whether the chip snapback holds through the data.
- The inflation reading and the September question.
- Oil and the pressure on energy.
Indexes
A blowout from Micron after Wednesday's close flipped the week's mood, and futures are pointed sharply higher as the memory and equipment names that had been left for dead come roaring back. Nasdaq 100 futures near 30,150 sit well above Wednesday's 29,220 cash close, an opening jump of roughly 3% for the index, with the broader market dragged up alongside it. The one cloud is the calendar: the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation reading lands at 8:30 Eastern, before any of this can settle.
| Futures | Last | vs Wed close | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,482.25 | +1.69% | Broad lift |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 30,153.00 | +3.19% | Chips out front |
| YM (Dow) | 52,395.00 | +1.05% | Blue chips join |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 3,018.80 | +1.08% | Small caps firm |
Wednesday's regular session had gone nowhere while traders waited on Micron. The Dow eked out a gain on cyclicals, the Russell held near the 3,000 line, and the technology indexes drifted lower one more time before the report changed the picture after hours.
| Wednesday close | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,358.22 | -0.10% | Faded a midday bid |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,476.64 | -0.43% | Tech still heavy |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,220.06 | -0.43% | AI names lagged |
| Dow Jones | 51,848.90 | +0.35% | Cyclicals led |
| Russell 2000 | 2,986.63 | +0.37% | Just under 3,000 |
Asia ran with the chip story overnight. Seoul staged the loudest move, while Tokyo extended its bounce and Hong Kong slipped as mainland-exposed names lagged. Europe opened firmer, helped by a brighter German sentiment survey and steadier energy prices.
| Global | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 8,930.30 | +5.42% | Record, chips roar |
| Nikkei 225 | 72,366.34 | +4.46% | Tokyo extends bounce |
| Hang Seng | 23,076.91 | -1.43% | Hong Kong eases |
| FTSE 100 | 10,493.70 | +0.37% | London steady |
| DAX | 24,916.86 | +0.82% | Frankfurt firmer |
| CAC 40 | 8,430.69 | +0.53% | Paris higher |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,262.39 | +0.78% | Broad Europe up |
In the News
Drivers
1. Whether the chip snapback holds through the data. Micron handed the group the clean result it had been missing all week, and Qualcomm gave it a second story about life beyond the smartphone. The open should be strong, but the staying power of the move depends on whether buyers are willing to chase memory and equipment names into an inflation reading that could reset rate expectations all over again. Does one record quarter end the scare, or just interrupt it?
2. The inflation reading and the September question. This is the first major price gauge since policy hardened under the new Fed chair, and futures have leaned toward a rate increase as soon as September. A hot core figure would harden that bet and test this morning's risk appetite; a softer one would land on a market positioned the other way and could extend the rally well past the chip names. With crude down hard, the surprise risk tilts lower.
3. Oil and the pressure on energy. Crude steadied this morning, but a barrel near multi-month lows and a fresh Justice Department probe leave the energy sector on its back foot while everything cheaper oil helps, from airlines to the inflation math, gets the benefit.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Bonds rallied with the chip names Wednesday and have held those gains into this morning's data, leaving the ten-year close to where the curve has bottomed for the month. The dollar is a touch firmer, and crude steadied after its steep slide rather than extending it.
| Rates / Vol | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.87 | -4.18% | Fear drains as futures climb |
| 2-Year | 4.13% | — | Eased with the curve |
| 10-Year | 4.40% | — | Base of the June range |
| 30-Year | 4.86% | — | Long end firm |
| 2s10s | +27 bp | — | Slightly positive |
| DXY | 101.63 | +0.13% | Marginally stronger |
The ten-year sits at 4.40%, the floor of the range it has carved out in June, with cheaper oil quietly doing the Fed's disinflation work ahead of the data. All five quotes below were pulled within the last hour.
| Commodities | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $69.52 | +0.27% | Steadier under $70 |
| Brent Crude | $73.03 | +0.72% | Holds the lows |
| Gold | $4,001.60 | -0.27% | Near a two-week low |
| Natural Gas | $3.32 | +1.07% | Firmer |
| Copper | $6.10 | +1.53% | Risk appetite returns |
Crude found a footing this morning, with West Texas Intermediate back to $69.52 and Brent at $73.03 after Wednesday's roughly 4% drop carried both to their weakest levels since before the Iran war. Gold at $4,001.60 keeps languishing near a two-week trough as the haven bid fades, while copper's firmer tone fits a morning when investors are reaching for risk again.
Technicals
Wednesday's close left the indexes coiled below resistance, and this morning's gap aims to clear it in one move. The S&P 500 at 7,358.22 had been pinned under its 20-day line near 7,460 while holding the rising 50-day around 7,320; futures imply an open back above that 20-day. The Nasdaq 100 gave up both its 20- and 50-day averages in the selloff and now points to reclaiming them at the bell, which would undo most of the technical damage from the memory scare. In rates, the ten-year at 4.40% rests on the floor of its June range, and a push under 4.35% would mark a cleaner downside break as falling oil eases the inflation math. The morning's standout chart belongs to Micron, whose after-hours surge is shown below.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Qualcomm (QCOM): indicated near $221, retaking the 50-day and the $210 area it lost during the week's selling; the spring high near $226 is the next test, and a clear push through would mark fresh ground for the year.
Applied Materials (AMAT): bid near $631, clearing its 20-day at $600 as the memory-capital story brightens; reclaiming the early-June range high would confirm the equipment names are back in gear.
Breakdowns
Newmont (NEM): pressing $93.71 with bullion stuck near a two-week low, the miner is leaning on its 50-day; a daily close beneath it opens the spring base near $88.
Occidental (OXY): slipping to $50.57 as crude holds its lows and the gouging probe hangs over the group, it is testing the $51 shelf, with the spring low near $48 the next floor down.
Top Movers
The screen is a sea of green in semiconductors, led by the two names that handed the group its catalysts overnight. The few decliners are concentrated in energy and the gold miners, the corners that cheaper crude and a softer bullion price work against.
Gainers
Micron (MU) trades near $1,237 in pre-market action, up about 18%, after a fiscal third quarter that beat on every line that mattered. Revenue came in at $41.46 billion against the $35.84 billion expected, adjusted earnings landed at $25.11 a share, and the gross margin reached 84.9%, with data-center revenue more than seven times its year-ago level at $11.5 billion. Management then guided current-quarter revenue to about $50 billion, far above the $43 billion Wall Street had modeled, and pointed to margins near 86%. The report does more than reset one stock; it argues that AI-memory demand is still outrunning supply, the question that hangs over every name in the group.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is about 12% higher near $221 after an investor day that recast it as an AI-infrastructure story. The company guided non-handset revenue for fiscal 2029 to $40 billion, nearly double its prior target, set a $15 billion data-center sales goal, and pointed to adjusted earnings per share above $18, well ahead of the $15.26 consensus. It also unveiled a data-center processor, the Dragonfly C1000, that Meta plans to use from 2028, and agreed to buy the AI-software firm Modular.
Memory and equipment names rode the same wave. Western Digital (WDC) climbed about 13% to $726, Sandisk (SNDK) jumped 15% to $2,208, and Seagate (STX) added 10% to $1,090 as the storage group repriced higher. Among the toolmakers, Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 7% to $631 and Lam Research (LRCX) gained 6% to $399, with KLA (KLAC) up near $252, all on the read that Micron's capital plans flow straight to their order books.
McCormick (MKC) firmed about 4% to $49.44 after the spice maker's fiscal second quarter topped estimates, a rare bid for a consumer staple on a risk-on morning.
Losers
Energy names slipped with the barrel. Exxon Mobil (XOM) eased about 1% to $135.58, Occidental (OXY) fell a similar amount to $50.57, and ConocoPhillips (COP) gave back near 1% to $105.89, the sector caught between Wednesday's price collapse and the new Justice Department inquiry into pump prices.
Newmont (NEM) edged down to $93.71 as gold idled near a two-week low, leaving the largest miner without the tailwind it leaned on through the spring.
Macro Calendar
The morning carries the week's heaviest slate, and it all hits at once at 8:30 Eastern. The May reading on the personal consumption expenditures index is the one that counts, expected at half a percent for the month and about 4.1% over the year, with the core gauge near 3.3%. After a hawkish turn from the Fed and barrels sliding into the report, the market has braced for a firm number, which is exactly what makes a cool surprise the one that would move it most. Arriving in the same release window are the final cut of first-quarter growth, durable-goods orders for May, and the weekly jobless claims, none likely to overshadow the inflation figure.
| This session | Consensus | Note |
|---|---|---|
| PCE price index (May, m/m) | +0.5% | The Fed's preferred gauge |
| Core PCE (May, y/y) | ≈3.3% | The number that matters |
| GDP (Q1, final) | +1.6% | Third estimate |
| Durable goods (May) | +0.2% | Capex read |
| Initial jobless claims | 225K | Labor check |
Earnings Today
A thin docket sits beside the data, and the consumer aisle offers the only name worth flagging.
Before the open: McCormick (MKC) reports fiscal second-quarter results, a read on grocery demand and pricing power in the flavor business, with revenue seen near $1.9 billion.
After the close: The evening slate is quiet, with no megacap on the docket; the next marquee consumer report, Nike's fiscal fourth quarter, lands Tuesday after the bell.