Ringside · Post-Bell · Jun 25
- The split between chipmakers and device makers is now the market's central question.
- Inflation at a three-year high keeps the Federal Reserve boxed in.
- Oil's bounce is the smaller thread.
Indexes
A record from the country's largest memory maker split the market cleanly in two. The chip stocks that profit from soaring memory prices ripped higher, while the device makers that have to buy those chips were sold hard, and the index level masked one of the more violent rotations of the year.
| Index | Close | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,357.49 | -0.01% | Chip gains offset hardware losses |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,358.60 | -0.46% | Fourth straight decline |
| Dow Jones | 51,920.62 | +0.14% | Lifted by health, banks, industry |
| Russell 2000 | 3,007.86 | +0.71% | Small caps extend their run |
| VIX | 18.89 | +1.4% | Volatility crept higher |
Apple did the most damage, sliding hard enough to drag the Nasdaq Composite to a fourth straight loss even as a wall of semiconductor names posted double-digit gains. The S&P 500 finished a hair lower, the Dow held a small advance on strength in health care, banks and industrials, and small caps held the Russell 2000 north of the 3,000 mark for a third day running.
Sector Heat Map
Beneath a nearly unchanged headline index, money moved with real conviction.
| Sector (ETF) | % Change | Sector (ETF) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials (XLI) | +2.17% | Utilities (XLU) | +0.68% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +1.49% | Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.18% |
| Materials (XLB) | +1.33% | Financials (XLF) | -0.50% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.97% | Staples (XLP) | -0.59% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.83% | Communications (XLC) | -0.90% |
| Discretionary (XLY) | -1.49% |
Industrials, health care and materials led, a blend of cyclicals and defensives with little direct link to the chip story. Consumer discretionary lagged as Amazon fell, and communications followed Meta and Alphabet lower. Technology's small gain hid the day's real divide: the memory and equipment makers soared while Apple and Microsoft sank, and the two sides came close to cancelling out.
In the News
Drivers
- The split between chipmakers and device makers is now the market's central question. The memory and equipment names (Micron, SanDisk, Applied Materials) are pricing a multi-year upcycle, while Apple, Microsoft and Amazon are pricing the cost of it. Watch whether Nvidia and Broadcom, both lower today, get pulled back toward the memory rally or stay tied to the hardware names; their direction will signal which interpretation the market trusts. The coming weeks of conference calls, when device makers spell out their cost outlooks, are where this gets settled.
- Inflation at a three-year high keeps the Federal Reserve boxed in. With firm income and spending alongside the 4.1% reading, the case for any rate cut this year has thinned and a hike is no longer a fringe view. The next round of Fed commentary will show whether officials lean on the hot annual number or the cooler monthly one.
- Oil's bounce is the smaller thread. Crude steadied after sliding to pre-war levels, and a hold above $70 keeps the recent relief on inflation intact.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Treasury yields barely budged despite the hot inflation reading, a sign the market had largely braced for it.
| Treasury | Yield | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.16% | — | Firmer on the report |
| 10-Year | 4.39% | — | Eased a touch |
| 30-Year | 4.86% | — | Anchored |
The two-year, the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy, ticked up to 4.16% while the ten-year eased to 4.39%, leaving the short end about 23 basis points below the long end and the curve slightly flatter on the session.
| FX | Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.44 | -0.05% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1375 | +0.15% |
| USD/JPY | 161.79 | +0.01% |
| Commodity | Price | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $71.68 | +2.6% | Bounced off the low |
| Brent Crude | $75.21 | +2.8% | Recouped some losses |
| Gold | $4,042.10 | +0.6% | Firmer after the close |
| Natural Gas | $3.27 | +0.4% | Edged higher |
| Copper | $6.13 | +2.4% | Cyclical bid |
Crude clawed back part of the prior session's slide, with West Texas Intermediate settling near $71.68 and Brent near $75.21, both higher by between two and three percent though still far below their wartime peaks as supply normalizes. Gold firmed to $4,042 and copper added 2.4%, with the energy and metals quotes pulled fresh after the close.
Technicals
At 7,357.49 the S&P 500 is pinned just under its 20-day average and leaning on its 50-day, now around 7,320, which has cushioned every pullback this month. The Nasdaq Composite is the weaker chart after four down days, while the Dow's push to 51,920 keeps it within reach of a record high. On the rates side, the ten-year's hold near 4.39% keeps it at the low end of June's range, and a clean break under 4.35% would mark a real downside shift in yields. The session's most telling move belonged to Apple, a steady one-way slide from the open that pulled the whole index down with it.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Lam Research (LRCX) cleared $400 for the first time, closing at $401.82 as the chip-equipment makers caught the upgrade in memory-capital-spending expectations; the breakout opens room toward the mid-$400s.
KLA (KLAC) broke out of a two-month range to $258.80, confirming relative strength across the equipment group, with the prior ceiling near $250 now the floor it needs to hold.
Breakdowns
Oracle (ORCL) slid to $152.46, a fresh leg lower for the names funding the AI build-out, and the late-May low near $148 is the next support that matters.
Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $195.74, back below the $200 mark and its 50-day average; the AI-chip leader sat out the memory rally, leaving $190 as the line to defend.
Top Movers
The day's biggest moves traced a single fault line, separating the companies that sell memory from the ones that have to buy it.
Gainers
Micron (MU) climbed 15.7% to $1,213.56 in the first full session after its record results, as investors rushed to price in the memory shortage management had described. The reaction spread immediately and worldwide, lifting equipment suppliers and Asian chip stocks along with it.
SanDisk (SNDK) soared 22% to $2,335.00, the single largest gain among the big names, as the storage maker rode the same pricing wave Micron's guidance confirmed. The bet is that NAND flash prices follow memory higher into next year.
Applied Materials (AMAT) jumped 13.4% to $668.00 on expectations that a fresh build-out of memory capacity means a wave of new equipment orders.
Qualcomm (QCOM) added 3.8% to $204.90, reclaiming the $200 mark it had lost earlier in the week, though its gain trailed the memory names because pricier memory eats into its own costs. The smartphone-chip designer is as much a buyer of memory as a seller of logic.
Losers
Apple (AAPL) tumbled 6.1% to $275.15, its worst session in months, after raising prices on some MacBook and iPad models by up to $300 and citing surging memory and storage costs. The move turns the AI memory boom into a direct hit on hardware margins, and Apple was the single heaviest weight on the Nasdaq.
Microsoft (MSFT) fell 3.5% to $352.83 after following Apple with Xbox console price increases of $100 to $150, blaming the same memory crunch.
Amazon (AMZN) dropped 3.1% to $227.01, the heaviest drag on the consumer-discretionary group, as the megacaps leading the AI build-out came under fresh pressure over what rising chip costs do to their spending plans.
Key Macro Data Today
May's inflation report was the week's main economic event, and it landed hot without tipping into alarming.
| Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE, y/y | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Core PCE, y/y | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Headline PCE, m/m | 0.5% | — | 0.4% |
| Personal Income, m/m | 0.4% | — | 0.7% |
| Personal Spending, m/m | 0.6% | — | 0.7% |
Headline inflation matched the 4.1% economists expected and marked the fastest annual pace since 2023, while the monthly gain of 0.4% came in a tenth under forecast. Core inflation ticked up to 3.4%, a hair above consensus. The stronger surprise sat underneath the price data: incomes rose 0.7% and spending climbed 0.7%, both well ahead of estimates, which says the consumer is still absorbing higher prices rather than pulling back.
Notable Earnings This Session
With the week's defining report already behind it, the calendar was light.
Pre-Open
McCormick (MKC) led the morning with a profit beat, joined by restaurant operator Darden and steelmaker Commercial Metals. McCormick's steady result and maintained outlook stood out in a session that otherwise belonged to the chipmakers.
Post-Close
No major companies were scheduled after the close, which left Micron's record from the prior evening as the report still moving the market a full day later.
What Drove the Tape
Micron's record quarter did far more than lift one stock. It confirmed that the scramble for AI memory has handed chipmakers real pricing power, and the market repriced the whole supply chain in a day, from Korean and Japanese semiconductors overnight to American equipment makers at the open. The catch arrived almost at once: if memory is suddenly scarce and expensive, the companies that build phones, laptops and game consoles have to pay up, and Apple and Microsoft both said they would pass those costs to customers. Their shares fell, and because Apple is the heaviest name in the index, the Nasdaq closed lower for a fourth day even though far more chip stocks rose than fell. The official data told the same story in macro form, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high and a market that took both the report and the corporate price hikes in stride. Is the memory squeeze a windfall for technology or a tax on it? Today the answer was plainly both.