Indexes

Nasdaq 100 futures carry roughly two and a half times the gain of the S&P contract this morning, and the reason is two megacap results pulling in opposite directions rather than anything macroeconomic. Asia had already sorted the same evidence hours earlier, and did it far more emphatically.

Korea produced the number of the week. Having fallen more than 17% across the prior three sessions on doubts about artificial-intelligence spending, the Kospi gapped higher at the open, ran to 16.5% by mid-session and kept going, closing on the largest one-day advance in the index's history. Tokyo did its own version, helped by SoftBank Group's 15% jump and Tokyo Electron's 11%.

Taiwan's Taiex added more than 7% and the Shanghai Composite 0.6%. Europe has been the quiet corner of the morning, with the FTSE 100, the DAX, the CAC 40 and the Euro Stoxx 50 spread across a range of roughly 0.6% to 1.1% higher.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

Crude is giving back part of a violent month even while the shooting continues, because supply is physically moving again: tanker counts through Hormuz have roughly doubled off last week's lows, and China's crude inventories are full enough to blunt import demand. Long-dated Treasuries, meanwhile, have not repriced at all for Thursday's 1.5% growth reading.

West Texas Intermediate is still on course for a July gain near 19%, which matters more than this morning's decline. One housekeeping note: the September Brent contract expires today, so the benchmark rolls to October and the quoted level drops without anyone selling anything.

Technicals

Thursday's rally never reached the averages that matter. A 7,437.63 finish left the broad index beneath both its 20-day at 7,480.83 and its 50-day at 7,468.79; this morning's 0.48% indication puts it near 7,473, which is to say directly on the 50-day. The 200-day sits 5.6% lower at 7,019.93, and the June 2 record close of 7,609.78 is 2.26% up.

The Nasdaq 100 has considerably more repair work. At 28,106.35 it needs 2.7% simply to reach a 20-day of 28,870.90, and the 50-day at 29,400.56 is 4.6% away. This morning's 1.21% indication closes about half of the first gap.

Ten-year paper at 4.653% has spent July between 4.48% and 4.71% and starts the day mid-range, which makes it the least informative number on the screen. The thirty-year is the opposite: at 5.208% it has no ceiling in the modern record to work against, and the July low near 5.02% is the only meaningful mark underneath.

Apple (AAPL), hourly: the after-hours drop to $308.00 from a $333.43 close.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Amazon.com (AMZN) — $265.00 pre-market clears a 20-day at $242.41 and a 50-day at $246.38 in a single gap. Twelve-month highs at $274.99 are 3.8% overhead.

Eaton (ETN) — $406.36 retakes both the 50-day at $402.57 and the 20-day at $400.60 after three weeks beneath them. The twelve-month high is $435.78.

Breakdowns

Apple (AAPL) — $308.00 surrenders the 20-day at $324.35 and cuts under the 50-day at $309.30. Next reference below is the 200-day at $277.35, another 9.9% down.

Coinbase Global (COIN) — $154.30 loses a 20-day at $162.97 and a 50-day at $165.29 together. The twelve-month low at $141.09 is 8.6% beneath.

Amazon.com (AMZN), daily: three months of drift below the moving averages, ahead of this morning's gap.

Coinbase Global (COIN), daily: the twelve-month low of $141.09 is the level in question.

Top Movers

Gainers

Amazon.com (AMZN) is quoted at $265.00, up 12.53%, on second-quarter revenue of $200.61 billion against a $196.46 billion estimate and earnings of $5.75 a share against $1.82, though most of that gap is a one-off gain on the company's Anthropic stake rather than operating profit. Amazon Web Services grew 37% from a year earlier to $42.2 billion, the fastest rate in 18 quarters, and management said the artificial-intelligence and custom-silicon businesses have each passed a $25 billion annualized revenue run rate. What buyers are paying for is the direction of travel: the cloud unit spent two years slowing down and has now spent three quarters speeding back up. Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney told CNBC the quarter was "the breakout that the stock needed." Microsoft made the same argument a day earlier, and the two reports together are what Asia traded on overnight.

Intel (INTC) is indicated 5.12% higher at $95.80 after closing Thursday up 11.3% at $91.13. The company said select Xeon 6 processors deliver up to 20% more memory bandwidth with faster memory modules, with production availability set for August into September, and it expanded a partnership with Google Cloud covering engineering and supply-chain work. Two sessions of this size still leave the shares 6.1% under a 20-day average of $102.01, which is the useful measure of how deep the hole was.

Applied Materials (AMAT) adds 4.24% to $523.06, extending Thursday's 14.97% recovery without any news of its own. Lam Research (LRCX) is up 4.00% at $309.63 and Micron Technology (MU) 3.78% at $907.76, so the entire equipment complex is moving on the Korean read rather than on domestic orders. Applied Materials does not report until mid-August.

Eaton (ETN) trades 4.99% higher at $406.36 on adjusted earnings of $3.15 a share against a $3.08 estimate and revenue of $8.53 billion against roughly $8 billion, with third-quarter guidance of $3.46 to $3.56. The electrical-equipment maker sells directly into data-center construction, which makes it the industrial expression of the same spending story driving the semiconductor names above.

Losers

Apple (AAPL) is down 7.63% at $308.00 despite beating on both headline lines: fiscal third-quarter revenue of $109.42 billion topped a $108.85 billion estimate and earnings of $2.02 a share cleared $1.80, with iPhone revenue of $54.25 billion up 22% from a year earlier. The damage came from the two lines investors have been using to underwrite the multiple. Services revenue of $30.74 billion missed a $31.22 billion estimate, and Greater China at $18.8 billion fell short of $19.5 billion, while guidance for the current quarter did not clear a bar that has risen every quarter this year. A company can grow 16% and still disappoint if the growth arrives in the segment carrying the lower margin.

Coinbase Global (COIN) falls 5.67% to $154.30 on a second-quarter net loss of $359 million where analysts had modelled $122 million. Net revenue of $1.22 billion missed a $1.29 billion estimate and was 19% lighter than the same quarter last year. Transaction revenue of $599 million short of $628 million and subscription and services revenue of $555 million short of $590 million; the company pointed to a 24% quarterly decline in spot trading volume. The one number moving the other way was share: Coinbase put its slice of global crypto volume at a record 10.3%, up from 9.1% in the first quarter, which is a decent position to hold in a market nobody is trading.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) gives up 2.88% to $152.55 after reporting before the bell against a consensus near $3.68 a share, having traded higher in Thursday's extended session. Chevron (CVX), reporting the same morning, is up 1.47% at $195.39, so two companies selling barrels at identical prices are being marked in opposite directions.

Linde (LIN) eases 2.12% to $497.86 on its own quarterly report, against company guidance of $4.40 to $4.50 a share.

Intel (INTC), daily: two strong sessions off a July low, with the 20-day still overhead at $102.01.

Macro Calendar

The employment cost index is the wage series policymakers cite when they want to argue that inflation is or is not embedded in labour contracts, and it is the only release today with the standing to move the front end. A repeat of last quarter's 0.9% would keep the argument exactly where it has been since spring.

Earnings Today

Reporting ahead of the bell: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), Linde (LIN), Eaton (ETN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Dominion Energy (D), Cameco (CCJ), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), Moderna (MRNA), Ares Management (ARES), AutoNation (AN) and Sony Group (SONY).

AbbVie is the one to check beyond the energy pair, given how much of the health-care sector's July has been about drug pricing rather than drug sales.

After the close: nothing of consequence, as is customary on a Friday.

Drivers

1. Whether an American session can hold what Asia handed it. Overnight buying repaired a three-day collapse rather than starting a fresh advance, and recoveries of that shape have a habit of fading by the afternoon in the market that opens last. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF at $554.00 pre-market remains 17.2% below its twelve-month high of $668.91, so the group has bounced without changing anything about its position.
2. The employment cost index at 8:30. Wage data has a better record of moving the two-year note than the growth data released yesterday, and the front end at 4.26% has spent the week refusing to follow the long bond anywhere.
3. Month-end mechanics. Today closes a July in which crude rose about 19%, the Kospi fell 17% in three days and recovered nearly all of it in one, and the thirty-year Treasury yield reached levels unseen since 2007. Portfolios that rebalance on the calendar will be selling what worked and buying what did not, which tends to blunt the first hour and matter little by the last. The S&P 500 begins the session 2.26% below its June 2 record close of 7,609.78.

SPY, the broad-market tracker, daily: opening against a 50-day it has not closed above since Monday.

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), daily: a gap higher that still leaves the 20-day untouched.