Ringside · Post-Bell · July 30
- Microsoft's 15.51% jump beat Nvidia's April 2025 record for one-day value creation.
- Suspected Tokyo intervention lifted the yen as much as 3%; the dollar index closed at 99.99.
- Second-quarter growth slowed to 1.5%, and the 30-year yield still rose 7.8 basis points to 5.221%.
Indexes
One earnings report undid Wednesday. Microsoft closed 15.51% higher at $451.10, its largest advance since October 2008, and The Wall Street Journal put the $450 billion of value it gained past the $440 billion Nvidia added on a single day in April 2025. Chipmakers went with it: Lam Research rose 17.98% and Applied Materials 14.97%, carrying the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 6.88% after four weeks of near-continuous selling. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.78% to 25,122.18 and the Nasdaq 100 finished 8.33% below its June 2 peak of 30,660.60, which pulls it back out of the correction it entered on Wednesday. Paying for that meant selling the defensive corners and Meta Platforms' sector alongside them, with staples down 2.16% and communication services 2.68%, so the S&P 500's 1.66% is a narrower result than the Nasdaq figure suggests. Bond investors were unmoved by any of it and kept selling the long end for a second day, taking the 30-year yield to 5.221%.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,437.63 | +1.66% | 2.26% under its June 2 record close |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,122.18 | +2.78% | Ranged 24,813.84 to 25,171.44 |
| Dow | 52,208.06 | +1.19% | Recovers 613.92 of Wednesday's 1,153.18 points |
| Russell 2000 | 2,946.10 | +1.37% | Back above its 50-day of 2,939.81 |
Sector Heat Map
Five groups rose and six fell, and the gap between the top and the bottom ran to more than eight percentage points.
| Sector | % Chg | Sector | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +5.50% | Materials (XLB) | -0.19% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.98% | Utilities (XLU) | -0.56% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.70% | Real Estate (XLRE) | -1.44% |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.56% | Health Care (XLV) | -1.64% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.53% | Consumer Staples (XLP) | -2.16% |
| Communication Svcs (XLC) | -2.68% |
Technology did more than five times the work of the next-best group, and every defensive sector finished lower, which is the mirror image of Tuesday's session and about as clean a risk-on signature as a heat map produces. Communication services carries Meta Platforms at a heavy weight, so its 2.68% decline is closer to one stock than to a verdict on the group.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Slower growth and softer inflation arrived together at 8:30 this morning and the long end sold off anyway, which is the single most useful thing the session revealed. Selling thirty-year paper on a 1.5% growth reading is not a statement about the economy; it is a statement about who is going to buy the debt.
| Rates | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.26% | Front end sat out the selling |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.677% | Higher by 5.5 bp |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.221% | Higher by 7.8 bp for a second session |
| 2s10s Spread | +42 bp | Holds the widest reading of July |
| Volatility, FX & Commodities | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.09 | -17.16% |
| WTI Crude | $84.13 | -0.39% |
| Brent Crude | $89.59 | -1.27% |
| Gold | $4,165.70 | +0.96% |
| Nat Gas | $2.75 | +0.81% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.99 | -0.80% |
Currency traders had the more dramatic afternoon. A dollar index at 99.99 is its first close under 100 since mid-June, and the yen did most of that damage in minutes rather than hours, which is the fingerprint of a central bank acting as an agent rather than of investors changing their minds. Volatility collapsed alongside it: the VIX at 17.09 finished under Tuesday's 18.21, so Wednesday's spike is gone and then some.
Technicals
Averages still sit above the S&P 500 even after a 1.66% session. The index closed at 7,437.63 against a 20-day of 7,480.83 and a 50-day of 7,468.79, so a rally of this size did not retake either; the 200-day is 5.6% lower at 7,019.93. The Nasdaq 100 at 28,106.35 has more ground to make up, with its 20-day at 28,870.90 and its 50-day at 29,400.56, though yesterday's 11.3% drawdown from the June peak is now 8.33%.
Long-dated Treasuries have no recent ceiling to work against. A 5.221% close on the thirty-year is higher than any close since 2007, which leaves the July low near 5.02% as the only nearby reference. Wednesday's intraday 5.244% is the one mark above it. Ten-year paper at 4.677% has spent July inside 4.48% to 4.71% and finished nearer the top of it.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Applied Materials (AMAT) — $501.77 recovers the $500 mark surrendered two sessions ago. The 20-day at $551.39 is 9.9% overhead and the 50-day at $541.57 sits just under it.
Shell (SHEL) — $90.51 puts the shares clear of a 20-day at $84.92 and a 50-day at $83.79. Twelve-month highs at $94.15 are 4.0% up.
Breakdowns
Altria (MO) — $67.94 loses the 20-day at $72.45 and the 50-day at $71.92 in one move. Next support is the 200-day at $65.55, another 3.5% down.
Meta Platforms (META) — traded to $524.52 intraday, beneath the $525.72 twelve-month closing low, before finishing at $539.03. The 20-day at $622.11 is 15.4% above.
Top Movers
Gainers
Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $451.10, up 15.51%, on fiscal fourth-quarter profit that grew by roughly a third and an Azure business that has now cleared $100 billion of annual revenue. What buyers paid for was the direction: the cloud unit is growing faster now than it was three months ago, and management has told them to expect faster still this quarter. Alphabet and Meta Platforms were both marked down this month for what their capital plans do to cash flow; Microsoft told investors its own spending rises again in fiscal 2027 and said it stays free-cash-flow positive, and that sentence is what separated the three reactions. "Investors are finally excited about Microsoft again," said Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management.
Lam Research (LRCX) gained 17.98% to $297.72 on a June quarter whose revenue grew 30% to $6.72 billion at the widest gross margin the company has recorded since 2006. The outlook did the rest: management put September revenue about a billion dollars clear of what analysts had modelled, and it is memory equipment, where revenue doubled in three months, carrying the number. Even after a session like this the shares remain 11.8% below their 50-day average of $337.53, which is a measure of how far the group had fallen rather than of how much it recovered.
Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 14.97% to $501.77 without reporting anything itself. Equipment makers sell into the same memory build-out Lam Research described, and Samsung Electronics' results earlier in the week supplied the demand evidence; buyers extended the read across the group. Its own quarter arrives in mid-August.
Arm Holdings (ARM) reversed a morning decline to close 7.40% higher at $241.54, having been quoted 3.84% lower before the open on a trimmed full-year royalty forecast.
Losers
Meta Platforms (META) fell 7.95% to $539.03, an eleventh consecutive decline and the longest losing run in the company's history; the shares are down 20.9% across the streak. Second-quarter revenue of $60.8 billion beat estimates, but earnings of $6.18 a share landed well under the $7.10 to $7.23 the street carried, third-quarter revenue guidance came in light, and free cash flow fell 91% from a year ago to $784 million. Management then raised the low end of its full-year capital spending range. "It's just not the greatest story to increase the bottom end of your capex," said David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors, "and not showing much positive guidance on revenue expectations."
Altria (MO) dropped 9.32% to $67.94 on adjusted earnings of $1.48 a share, two cents under consensus, even though revenue of $6.11 billion cleared a $5.35 billion estimate comfortably. Domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell 3.2% and Marlboro's share of the category slipped 1.5 points to 39.5%, so the pricing power that produced the revenue beat is being asked to cover a shrinking base. The company narrowed full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $5.61 to $5.72 a share.
Qualcomm (QCOM) lost 2.62% to $151.60, the only large chipmaker left out of the rally, a day after its own outlook disappointed.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 GDP, first estimate | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Core PCE, June (month) | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| Core PCE, June (year) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| PCE Price Index, June (year) | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 197,000 | 201,000 | 187,000 |
Headline consumer prices fell 0.1% in June as energy costs dropped about 20%, and the year-over-year rate came down to 3.7% from 4.1%. That is the largest monthly improvement in the Federal Reserve's preferred measure this year, and it arrived a day too late to matter to the three officials who voted for higher rates on Wednesday. Growth of 1.5% reads worse than it is, since the drag came mostly from a surge in imports while consumer spending and business investment both held up. "Strong domestic activity across consumption and business investment will keep the Fed diligent about the risks overheating could have on the inflation trajectory," said Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Notable Earnings This Session
Three large companies reported before the opening bell, and the two biggest names of the week arrived after it.
Pre-Open
Mastercard (MA) reported adjusted earnings of $5.04 a share on revenue of $9.28 billion, against $4.77 and $9.06 billion expected, with worldwide gross dollar volume up 8%, cross-border volume up 12% and an operating margin of 61.1%. The shares closed 2.49% higher at $577.35. Shell and Altria are covered above.
Post-Close
Amazon (AMZN) delivered the first $200 billion quarter in its history, with revenue of $200.61 billion against a $196.47 billion estimate and Amazon Web Services sales of $42.2 billion, up 37% and the unit's fastest growth since 2021. Reported earnings of $5.75 a share include $53.4 billion of pre-tax non-operating gains, most of it a mark-up on the company's stake in Anthropic, so the operating comparison is the one to read. Third-quarter revenue guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion sits below the $204.1 billion analysts carried, though the company points out that this year's Prime Day fell in June and that growth excluding the shift runs nearly four percentage points higher. Chief executive Andy Jassy called the cloud business "booming"; the shares added more than 9% after hours on top of a 3.90% session close at $235.50.
Apple (AAPL), which had already given up 1.41% to $333.43 during the session, earned $2.02 a share against a $1.89 consensus, on revenue of $109.42 billion that also cleared estimates. Gross margin of 50.1% beat a 47.9% estimate on the back of tariff rebates, and iPhone sales rose 22%. Services revenue of $30.73 billion was the biggest quarter that business has ever produced and still fell short of the $31.22 billion analysts wanted, which is what sent the shares lower again in extended trading.
Drivers
1. Japan's central bank announces its rate decision Friday, one day after the Ministry of Finance appears to have spent real money defending the currency. Tokyo committed roughly 11.7 trillion yen to the same job across April and May, so the question is whether policy now moves to support the currency directly rather than leaving the intervention desk to do it alone. The yen finished at 159.59 to the dollar after touching 158.34.
2. Amazon and Apple both trade on their numbers at Friday's open, and each brought one problem to an otherwise strong quarter. Amazon's cloud growth of 37% is the fastest in five years, but its revenue guidance for the current quarter stops short of what analysts had penciled in. Apple's margin came in more than two points above estimates while its services line, the part of the business investors pay the highest multiple for, fell short of them.
3. July ends Friday, and month-end index rebalancing lands in a bond market with a 30-year yield at 5.221% and nothing above it on the chart since 2007.