Ringside · Pre-Bell · August 4
- Palantir gapped to $145.82 before the bell, up 16.05%, on 93% revenue growth.
- Caterpillar booked $20.5 billion of quarterly sales, its first quarter above $20 billion.
- JOLTS openings land at 10:00 ET, consensus 7.45 million against May's 7.594 million.
Indexes
Yesterday's rally has not carried over so much as settled. Index contracts are higher by a fraction, and the lift is coming from two earnings gaps rather than from the megacaps that did the work on Monday. Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, each up between five and nine percent in the regular session, are all a percent or so lower ahead of the open.
| Contract | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,645.00 | +0.22% | S&P closed 9.28 points under its record |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,134.25 | +0.45% | Chips carrying it |
| YM (Dow) | 53,603.00 | +0.23% | Caterpillar is the heaviest weight |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,993.30 | +0.06% | Fourth session pressing 3,000 |
Overseas, Seoul did the interesting work. The Kospi added 1.62% to 6,358.95, clawing back part of Monday's 5.12% collapse, itself the reversal of a 17% single-day surge on Friday that was the largest in the index's history. Europe is making highs while nobody watches: the DAX, the FTSE MIB and the pan-European Stoxx 600 all traded at or near records during the morning.
| Index | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 6,358.95 | +1.62% | Morgan Stanley to overweight |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,957.53 | +0.39% | |
| Hang Seng | 25,852.92 | -0.60% | Only major to fall |
| DAX | 26,119.74 | +0.46% | New high |
| FTSE 100 | 10,883.20 | +0.30% | HSBC and BP reported |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Monday's bid for Treasuries has partly unwound. The ten-year is changing hands near 4.71% this morning against Monday's 4.686% close, per Trading Economics, which puts it back roughly where it sat before the weekend headlines out of the Gulf.
| Treasuries | Mon Close | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year | 4.400% | -6 bp | |
| 10-Year | 4.686% | -6 bp | Peaked at 4.75% last week |
| 30-Year | 5.231% | -4 bp | Above 5.20% since mid-July |
| Commodity | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $81.17 | +1.03% | Recovering part of Monday's 5% drop |
| Brent crude | $84.89 | +1.34% | |
| Gold | $4,113.30 | +0.12% | Front-month futures |
| Natural gas | $2.729 | -1.41% | Third down session |
| Currency | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | 99.957 | -0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1518 | +0.06% |
| USD/JPY | 157.839 | +0.31% |
Crude is bouncing because the diplomacy stalled overnight, not because anything physical changed. Tehran's denial that talks exist is the entire move.
Technicals
Two of the three big US indices are extended and one is not. The S&P 500 at 7,600.50 sits 116 points above its 20-day average of 7,484 and 126 above its 50-day of 7,475, with 7,609.78 from 2 June the only thing left overhead. The Nasdaq Composite at 25,913.90 is the laggard, still about 35 points beneath a 50-day average of 25,948 it last cleared in mid-July. The Russell 2000 at 2,981.91 has spent four sessions within twenty points of 3,000 without taking it.
On the curve, 4.75% is the level that matters on the ten-year. That was last week's high and the highest close since January 2025; a move through it would say the bond market has stopped caring about the Gulf and started caring about a Fed whose three dissenters in July wanted to hike, not cut.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — At $316.47 the refiner is within $3.29 of its 52-week high of $319.76, having spent the quarter climbing away from a 50-day average now $42 below it at $274. Refining margins widen when crude falls faster than product prices, which is exactly what Monday delivered.
Caterpillar (CAT) — Up 6.9% to $888.37, which puts it back at a 20-day average of $892 that has capped it since mid-July. The 50-day at $920 is the real test.
Breakdowns
McDonald's (MCD) — Monday's 2.00% decline to $265.23 left it $4.27 above the 52-week low of $260.96 and 12% under the 200-day average at $301. Nine sell-side firms have cut their price target in the past three weeks.
Apple (AAPL) — At $303.42 it has closed under its 50-day average at $310 for two consecutive sessions. Support underneath is the 200-day near $278.
Top Movers
Gainers
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up 16.05% to $145.82 after second-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion beat the $1.81 billion consensus and grew 93% from a year ago. US commercial revenue, the segment the bulls have been buying for two years, rose 149% to $764 million; adjusted operating income of $1.19 billion carried a 62% margin. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion from $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion, or 82% growth. Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy this morning and Citi lifted its target to $245 from $200. The more telling reaction came from Jefferies, which raised its target to $80 from $70 and kept an Underperform rating, so the bear case here is a valuation argument rather than a business one.
Caterpillar (CAT) is up 6.92% to $888.37 after posting sales and revenues of $20.5 billion, a 24% increase on the $16.6 billion of a year ago and, the company says, the first quarter above $20 billion in its history; the comparison is verified against the figures in its own release. Profit came to $7.77 a share against $4.62 last year and a consensus near $6.20, with operating margin widening to 20.9% from 17.3%. Volume contributed $3.1 billion of the increase and price realisation another $595 million, a mix that says the machines are actually moving rather than merely repricing. Backlog entered the quarter at $63 billion.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 4.57% to $506.80 with nothing reported yet, which is unusual positioning into a report due after the close tonight. Susquehanna raised its target to $500 from $450, and Microsoft confirmed it will deploy AMD Helios systems on Azure for large AI workloads alongside two new EPYC virtual-machine series. Consensus for tonight is $11.28 billion of revenue and $1.61 of adjusted earnings, against company guidance of $11.2 billion give or take $300 million.
Losers
Oracle (ORCL) is down 1.63% to $139.58, handing back a small piece of Monday's 9.22% advance on the agreement to embed Alphabet's Gemini models in Fusion Applications and NetSuite. That close of $141.85 was still 57% below the September 2025 high of $328.33, so this is a bounce off a low rather than a recovery.
Microsoft (MSFT) is down 1.77% to $479.04 after Monday's 4.93% move to $487.65, its best close since 26 December.
Amazon (AMZN) is down 2.05% to $278.22, one session after closing at $284.02, the highest close of the past year.
Macro Data Today
| Release | Consensus | Prior | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of trade (Jun) | -$73.0B | -$77.6B | 8:30 |
| JOLTS job openings (Jun) | 7.45M | 7.594M | 10:00 |
| Factory orders (Jun) | +0.2% | -1.3% | 10:00 |
| RCM/TIPP optimism (Aug) | 47.5 | 45.5 | 10:00 |
Openings is the release with teeth. The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% in July on a 9-3 vote in which all three dissenters wanted a quarter-point increase, and futures put roughly a 59% probability on a hike in September. A soft openings number is therefore doing something unusual: it argues against the hike rather than for a cut, which is narrower and less generous good news than the equity market is used to receiving from weak labour data.
Earnings Today
Caterpillar, McDonald's and Pfizer reported before the open; Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen and Airbnb come after the close. McDonald's is the one worth watching that nobody is watching. Consensus is for global comparable sales of about 1.4%, down from 3.8% in the first quarter, against a year-ago period lifted by the Minecraft tie-in meal. The stock has closed lower after each of its last two reports, and it came into today $4.27 off a 52-week low with the shares down 11% for the year.
Drivers
- Whether the Palantir gap holds through the session. Software has not had a leader since June, and a 16% move in a $300 billion company that closes near its highs would pull the group along with it. A gap that fills by lunchtime says the opposite. Sellers have their first clear reason to appear at the 200-day average of $153.
- The industrial signal from Caterpillar's 7:30 ET call. Sales above $20 billion, a $63 billion backlog and $595 million of price realisation make the strongest capital-spending datapoint anyone has produced this quarter, and it lands the day after ISM manufacturing came in at 55.6 against 54.0 expected. Machinery, engines and the electrical-equipment suppliers to data centres all move together on that reading.
- Openings at 10:00 ET, consensus 7.45 million, with ADP on Wednesday and payrolls Friday.