Ringside · Post-Bell · August 4
- S&P 500 7,736.52, eclipsing the 7,609.78 of June 2.
- Crude lost 5.69% to a $75.77 settle on talk of a Hormuz agreement this week.
- Palantir rose 29.45% to $162.66 and carried the technology sector up 4.98%.
Indexes
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC there was a chance of an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz today or tomorrow, and everything that has spent five weeks pricing a closed waterway repriced at once. West Texas Intermediate settled at $75.77, down 5.69%, which takes crude's decline for the week to roughly 10%. The ten-year Treasury yield eased six basis points to 4.627%. Into that, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) delivered on Monday night's report and 93% revenue growth was read as a verdict on artificial-intelligence demand generally rather than on one company, lifting technology 4.98% while four of the eleven sectors fell. By the bell the S&P 500 stood at 7,736.52, a record clear of the 7,609.78 of June 2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 54,085.88, a record that takes out Monday's 53,178.41. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,036.98 for a record of its own, above the 3,024.37 of June 30.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +1.79% | First record since June 2 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,584.99 | +2.59% | Back above its 50-day average |
| Dow Jones | 54,085.88 | +1.71% | Second straight peak |
| Russell 2000 | 3,036.98 | +1.85% | Past its June 30 peak |
The S&P traded between 7,629.10 and 7,758.21 and gave back 21.69 points from the high into the bell.
Sector Heat Map
Seven of the eleven sectors advanced, and one of them did nearly all the work.
| Sector | ETF | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | XLK | +4.98% |
| Materials | XLB | +1.94% |
| Industrials | XLI | +1.77% |
| Financials | XLF | +0.87% |
| Communication Services | XLC | +0.63% |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | +0.60% |
| Consumer Discretionary | XLY | +0.07% |
| Real Estate | XLRE | -0.02% |
| Health Care | XLV | -0.09% |
| Energy | XLE | -0.46% |
| Utilities | XLU | -0.56% |
Strip out semiconductors and software and this was an ordinary day: the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.44% against the cap-weighted 1.79%.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The long end and the energy complex traded off the same headlines.
| Treasuries | Close | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year | 4.333% | -7 bp | Largest daily decline of the three |
| 10-Year | 4.627% | -6 bp | Twelve bp off last week's peak |
| 30-Year | 5.190% | -4 bp | Under 5.20% for the first time since mid-July |
| Commodity | Settle | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $75.77 | -5.69% | Second leg of a 10% week |
| Brent crude | $79.36 | -5.26% | Back under $80 |
| Gold | $4,134.10 | — | Higher; feeds differ on the prior settle |
| Natural gas | $2.681 | -3.14% | Three-month low |
| Currency | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | 99.868 | -0.15% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1535 | +0.21% |
| USD/JPY | 157.726 | +0.23% |
Both crude figures above are exchange settlements struck at 14:30 ET and reconciled across two feeds; a quote pulled off a screen after that hour reads lower, because the selling continued. The curve followed energy rather than the labour data: the inflation premium that carried the ten-year to 4.75% in late July has less to defend, and the two-year at 4.21% per Trading Economics sits four basis points under Monday's level.
Technicals
The S&P 500 settled 240 points above its 20-day average of 7,495.94 and 256 above the 50-day at 7,480.68, two lines now within fifteen points of each other. Technology's own index did something narrower and more useful: 26,584.99 on the Nasdaq Composite recovered a 50-day average of 25,947.13 that had been lost since mid-July, leaving it 509 points short of the 27,093.90 of June 2 and alone among the majors below its high. The Russell 2000 touched 3,043.11 before settling at 3,036.98.
Rates are back where they started the escalation. The ten-year at 4.627% has unwound most of what carried it to 4.75% and an eighteen-month high in late July, and the thirty-year at 5.190% is under 5.20% for the first time in three weeks.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Broadcom (AVGO) — A 6.61% session to $418.16 took out the 50-day average at $394.62, the line that had capped every attempt since July. The June 2 closing high of $480.81 is the next reference overhead.
Lumentum (LITE) — $849.47 is the first close above the 50-day average at $822.08 since mid-July, on optical demand tied to data-centre buildouts. Losing the 20-day at $755.05 would undo it.
Breakdowns
Nike (NKE) — Down 2.60% to $41.53 after JPMorgan cut it to Underweight and took its target to $40 from $47. That leaves $0.78 between the shares and the $40.75 close of June 26, with the 200-day average 23% overhead at $53.65.
UnitedHealth (UNH) — A 1.88% decline to $407.55 gave up the 50-day average at $410.64. The 20-day at $423.17 is now overhead resistance instead of support.
Top Movers
Gainers
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rose 29.45% to $162.66, and what the session did with Monday night's numbers mattered more than the numbers themselves. The stock gapped to $145.15, dipped to $143.28 in the first hour, then spent the rest of the day climbing to close within $1.86 of its $164.52 high. Software gaps have been sold into since June; this one was bought. The report showed revenue of $1.94 billion against $1.81 billion expected, with the full-year guide lifted to roughly $8.15 billion.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 7.00% to $518.58 before reporting, then gave much of it back. Second-quarter earnings came in at $1.66 a share on revenue of $11.5 billion, against $1.62 and $11.3 billion expected, with data-centre sales of $6.7 billion beating the $6.5 billion modelled. Third-quarter guidance of $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion sits above the $12.5 billion consensus, and the shares still fell more than 8% in late trading.
Caterpillar (CAT) closed 5.60% higher at $876.54 on morning sales and revenues of $20.5 billion, up 24%, with adjusted earnings of $8.17 a share against a consensus near $6.20. The shares opened at $922.00, touched $935.00 and were sold from there all day, finishing below where they started. A 12.65% gain at the high became 5.60% at the bell, which is a market taking the quarter and declining to pay for the next one.
Coherent (COHR) added 12.35% to $323.73 on the same optical-component demand that moved Lumentum.
Losers
Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.32% to $277.42, one session after setting a twelve-month closing high, and was the reason consumer discretionary managed 0.07% while technology rose nearly 5%. Nothing company-specific broke; the shares funded the rotation into semiconductors.
Chevron (CVX) lost 1.44% to $190.40, and the split inside energy was the interesting part: producers fell with the barrel while Marathon Petroleum (MPC), which buys crude and sells fuel, closed higher by 1.82% at $312.61.
AstraZeneca (AZN) slipped 1.49% to $155.62, a second session of losses since the Financial Times reported it had explored a combination with Bristol Myers Squibb valued near $400 billion. Analysts quoted by CNBC have called the industrial logic hard to follow.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Consensus | Actual | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of trade (Jun) | -$73.0B | -$73.3B | -$77.6B |
| JOLTS job openings (Jun) | 7.45M | 7.36M | 7.54M |
| Factory orders (Jun) | +0.2% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Three releases, all softer than forecast, and stocks finished at a record. Trading Economics notes the factory-orders decline was the first back-to-back drop in nearly a year, which in an ordinary cycle would read as a growth warning. With policy on hold at 3.50% to 3.75% and part of the committee arguing for an increase rather than a reduction, weak data removes a threat instead of promising relief, and that was worth more today than the weakness cost.
Notable Earnings This Session
A heavy slate on both sides of the bell.
Pre-Open
Three names came before the bell: Caterpillar, McDonald's and Pfizer. McDonald's closed higher by 1.17% at $268.34 after global comparable sales beat the roughly 1.4% analysts had modelled, which for a stock near a 52-week low was enough.
Post-Close
Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Airbnb and SpaceX followed after the bell. Amgen raised full-year revenue guidance to $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion against a $37.7 billion consensus, with Repatha sales up 37% to $953 million; the shares closed at $390.02, higher by 2.94%, before the release.
Drivers
- Whether AMD's late decline survives the open. The company beat on earnings, revenue and data-centre sales, guided the third quarter above consensus, and the stock fell more than 8% anyway. That is what happens when too many people already own it: the shares had risen 7.00% into the report and 1.78% the session before it with no numbers in hand. Semiconductors delivered Tuesday's record, so the group's open matters more than any index level.
- Whether the agreement Bessent described arrives. Positioning is now lopsided: a signed deal is largely inside the $75.77 settle, and a collapse in talks is not. Ryan McKay of TD Securities told Bloomberg that Iran is unlikely to accept terms without control of the strait, which is the part of this that has not moved since June.
- ADP's private payrolls report lands at 8:15 ET Wednesday, and the Labor Department's July employment report follows at 8:30 ET Friday.