Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

The 2017 Corporate Tax Cut Boosted Investment and Jobs — but Nearly All the Gains Went to the Top 10%

aea

• A new study using matched employer-employee tax records finds that the 2017 Trump tax cut did increase corporate investment, payrolls, and employment relative to firms that got a smaller cut.
• But the wage gains were almost entirely concentrated at the top: workers below the 90th percentile saw no statistically significant earnings increase, while executives saw a 2.6% bump.
• Overall, 87% of the gains accrued to the top 10% of earners once capital ownership is factored in, vindicating skeptics who argued the cut would primarily benefit the wealthy.

A Russian Satellite Is Stalking a Western Commercial Satellite, and the West Has No Clear Response

csis

• A Russian military satellite called Cosmos 2612 has maneuvered into the same orbital plane as a commercial radar satellite supporting Ukraine, a fuel-intensive move with no obvious benign purpose — raising fears Russia may be preparing to test or deploy a space weapon.
• Russia has a documented history of testing on-orbit weapons and has increasingly used 'gray zone' tactics — cyberattacks, GPS jamming, sabotage — against Western interests, and analysts fear space is the next frontier.
• The U.S. and Europe have no clear deterrence policy for this scenario, and a weak response to any hostile act in space would signal to Moscow that it can keep escalating with little consequence.

A US Diesel Export Ban Would Help American Consumers but Devastate Global Markets

the_conversation

• A war-driven collapse in Russian and Middle Eastern diesel exports has sent US diesel prices to near-record highs, prompting calls from Republicans — and signals from Trump — for a ban on US diesel exports.
• A ban would likely lower domestic prices in the short term, but would spike global prices and increase market volatility by concentrating the world's remaining supply in fewer, more fragile sources.
• Research on commodity export restrictions shows bans become more politically attractive when prices are high and elections are near — exactly the situation the US faces now.

In the News

The torture charges against Maduro could finally give Venezuelan victims a day in court

atlantic_council

• A new conspiracy-to-commit-torture charge has been added to the case against Venezuela's former dictator Nicolás Maduro, now in U.S. custody, covering the systematic abuse of political opponents including American citizens.
• A rarely used U.S. law allows federal courts to prosecute torture committed anywhere in the world, as long as the alleged perpetrator is on U.S. soil — recent convictions of an Assad-era prison chief and a Gambian death squad member show it can work.
• While the charges open a rare accountability pathway for Venezuelan victims, the article argues that lasting justice requires a full democratic transition in Venezuela, not just a U.S. criminal trial.

Analysis

Green Card Backlogs Are Leaving Refugees and Asylees Without Health Coverage for Years

kff

• The 2025 reconciliation law eliminated health coverage under Medicaid, CHIP, and the ACA for refugees and asylees who don't yet have a green card, making the speed of green card processing newly critical to their access to care.
• USCIS completed 85-90% fewer green card applications for refugees and asylees in the first three quarters of FY2026 compared to the same period in FY2025, while processing times roughly doubled — reaching nearly 20 months for asylees.
• Over 275,000 applications are now pending, and the backlog is still growing, meaning tens of thousands of people who have legally applied for permanent residency will likely go without federally funded health coverage for extended periods while they wait.

Also Worth a Look

• The Supreme Court Has Been Quietly Rewriting Its Own Gun Rights Precedent to Protect AR-15s (scotusblog)
• Young Americans All Fear Mass Shootings — But That Fear Is Driving Them to Opposite Conclusions on Gun Control (the_conversation)
• Even Blue-Collar Workers Have Turned Against Trump's Tariffs (eig)
• The U.S. Has Plenty of Bunker Busters — But Not Enough for Its Hardest Targets (csis)
• Cities Ask the Supreme Court to Block Trump's DOJ From Colluding With Texas to Gut Immigration Rules (scotusblog)
• America's Electrical Grid Just Had Its Most Stressful Summer Ever (eia)
• A Mental Health Crisis Is Quietly Pulling Tens of Thousands of British Kids Out of School (lse)