Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

U.S. Export Controls Work Far Better When Allies Join In — and Even a Full Embargo Can't Match Multilateral Pressure

nber

• A new NBER study finds that U.S. export controls are significantly more effective when allied countries participate: multilateral controls replace only 7% of lost exports to adversaries through trade diversion, versus 28% under unilateral U.S. policy alone.
• The security gains from multilateral controls are roughly seven times larger than from unilateral U.S. action, while imposing similar civilian economic costs — meaning going it alone is a bad deal.
• Even a complete U.S. embargo fails to replicate the security impact of coordinated multilateral controls, a finding with direct relevance to current U.S. tech and chip export restrictions targeting China.

Americans Want EVs But Can't Buy Them — Because U.S. Policy Gutted the Supply

the_conversation

• When gas prices spiked in 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, EV sales fell while hybrid sales rose — but not because Americans didn't want EVs. The real problem was a supply crunch caused by automakers cutting EV production after federal tax credits expired in late 2025.
• The data tells the supply-side story clearly: EV inventories shrank, discounts narrowed, and used EV prices jumped 13% — all signs of rising demand hitting a wall of limited supply, while hybrids were plentiful.
• Federal policy is making things worse, not better: ending EV tax credits, loosening fuel economy standards, and effectively banning Chinese EVs (which dominate the affordable end of the global market) leave American drivers with fewer options and more exposure to oil price volatility.

In Kenya, Credit Constraints Actually Make Green Subsidies Work Better

nber

• A randomized experiment in Kenya found that purchase price subsidies for clean cooking stoves generated large welfare gains, while usage subsidies had zero effect — suggesting how subsidies are structured matters enormously.
• Credit constraints, often seen as a problem, actually made subsidies more effective by targeting them toward households with higher fuel savings and greater environmental benefits, cutting the cost of carbon abatement dramatically.
• The findings suggest that low-income contexts with widespread credit constraints could be among the most cost-effective places in the world to invest in climate mitigation.

In the News

Latino Voters Are Turning Against Trump — and It's Showing Up in 2026 Midterm Polls

pew

• Democrats hold a 27-point advantage over Republicans among Latino registered voters heading into the 2026 midterms, with 55% saying their congressional vote is a vote against Trump.
• Trump's approval among Latino voters has dropped from 38% to 24% since the start of his second term — and among Latino voters who backed him in 2024, it has collapsed from 93% to 57%.
• Latino voter engagement is unusually high compared to the 2022 midterms, and Democratic-leaning Latino voters are more energized than Republican-leaning ones — a potentially significant turnout dynamic.

Analysis

Remote Work Made Colleagues More Open With Each Other, Not Less

the_conversation

• A management scholar who studied 275 workers at a professional services firm over several years found that shifting to remote work made colleagues closer, not more isolated — contradicting the conventional wisdom that office proximity is essential for strong workplace relationships.
• When people worked from home, glimpses into their personal lives via video calls and chat channels created a sense of psychological safety, making workers more comfortable admitting struggles and asking for help.
• The study, peer-reviewed and forthcoming in Organization Science, suggests employers pushing return-to-office mandates may be underestimating the social bonds that remote work can foster.

Also Worth a Look

• Men Use AI More, Trust It More — and Women's Skepticism Is Growing (pew)
• Social Media Doesn't Reflect Public Opinion — It Amplifies the Loudest, Angriest Minority (issues)
• Ukraine's Drone Strikes on Russian Data Centers Exposed a Self-Inflicted Vulnerability (atlantic_council)
• Saudi Arabia Has More Military Allies Than Ever, and Houthi Missiles Are Still Getting Through (atlantic_council)
• AI's $5 Trillion Bet May Already Be Too Big to Fail — and Taxpayers Could Be on the Hook (ai_now)
• China Embraces Automation While America Ties Itself in Regulatory Knots (itif)
• Fiscal Austerity May Leave Permanent Economic Scars, Not Just Temporary Pain (voxeu)