Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

For the First Time on Record, Americans Who Distrust Their Government Trust Elections More Than Those Who Support It

gallup

• In a historically unprecedented reversal, Americans who disapprove of national leadership are now more confident in election integrity (52%) than those who approve (41%) — the opposite of every other country Gallup tracks.
• Globally, supporters of the ruling party almost always trust elections more than opponents; the U.S. gap has not only collapsed but flipped, a pattern unseen in any of the 100+ countries Gallup has monitored over 15 years.
• With midterms approaching, this dynamic raises serious questions about whether the losing side will accept November's results as legitimate.

New York Fed Research: Tariffs Raise Consumer Prices by About a Quarter of Their Size, With the Full Effect Taking a Year to Appear

ny_fed

• A 10 percentage point tariff increase raises consumer goods prices by roughly 2.5 percent after one year — meaning consumers absorb about a quarter of the tariff, not the full amount.
• About two-thirds of the price impact is direct (imported goods cost more), while the remaining third comes from U.S.-made goods, as domestic producers face higher input costs and less competitive pressure to hold prices down.
• The New York Fed estimates tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation by February 2026, but that contribution is forecast to fade — and even turn slightly negative — as the sharp 2025 tariff increases drop out of year-over-year comparisons.

The New US Law Targeting Russian Oil Revenue Is Really About Pressuring India

csis

• Congress passed sweeping legislation threatening 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy, but the real target may be India rather than China — because the US-India relationship still has enough flexibility to make the threat credible as a bargaining tool.
• India currently gets roughly a third of its crude oil from Russia, and replacing that volume is far from simple, meaning aggressive enforcement could roil global energy markets and damage a strategic partnership both countries have spent years building.
• The law's deeper significance may be architectural: by pairing broad tariff authority with expansive presidential waiver power, it formalizes a new model of US economic statecraft where uncertainty itself becomes the leverage.

In the News

A mysterious death at a Russian plague lab is raising serious questions about biological safety and transparency

atlantic_council

• A 28-year-old researcher at Russia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute died in early October under conflicting official accounts, with roughly 200 contacts placed under quarantine or hospitalization — an unusually large response that Russian authorities haven't fully explained.
• Russia has a long history of concealing biological lab accidents, most infamously the 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax leak that killed dozens and wasn't officially acknowledged for 13 years, giving observers strong reasons to distrust current official statements.
• The authors argue that independent investigators, potentially through WHO mechanisms, must be allowed to examine evidence before samples and records are lost — and note that the incident highlights broader risks as AI accelerates biological research in countries with weak biosecurity oversight.

Analysis

Pension Funds Are Quietly Becoming a Destabilizing Force in Stock Markets

hoover

• U.S. public pension funds, long seen as steady, stabilizing investors, are increasingly forced to sell equities just to cover benefit payments that exceed contributions.
• New research using granular holdings data finds that pension funds absorb 67 cents of every dollar in cash flow shortfalls by selling stocks — and they sell even when markets are down, amplifying volatility rather than dampening it.
• The finding upends a core assumption in financial markets: that pension funds act as contrarian buyers during downturns, providing a stabilizing backstop.

Also Worth a Look

• Two Questions Determine Whether a Pricing Algorithm Becomes Evidence of Price Fixing (promarket)
• A New Economic Model Shows How Wildly Uncertain AI's Impact on Jobs and Growth Really Is (uva_darden)
• Tracking AI Chips to Stop Smuggling Sounds Good — But the Technology Has Serious Limits (cset)
• AI Is Making Work Better — But Mostly for People Who Already Have Good Jobs (gallup)
• America's Childhood Vaccination System Is Fracturing in Real Time (kff)
• The Midwest Is America's Last Affordable Housing Haven — and It May Not Stay That Way (eig)
• Support for Medicare-for-All Has Hit a Record High, But Most Americans Don't Understand What It Would Actually Do (kff)