Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Republicans Are Behind 80% of AI-Generated Political Ads, and Most Don't Say So

the_conversation

• Researchers tracking political ad spending have identified nearly 170 AI-generated ads totaling $80 million in the 2026 midterm cycle, ranging from subtle visual enhancements to hyperrealistic deepfakes of politicians like AOC, Trump, and Fauci.
• Republican candidates and groups account for 80% of those ads and 83% of spending; the authors attribute this partly to differing party philosophies on regulation versus free markets.
• Despite a patchwork of state AI-disclosure laws, only 31% of tracked ads included any disclaimer — and states with AI laws were actually slightly less likely to have disclaimers than states without them, suggesting the laws are largely unenforceable.

Florida's Ban on Highway Surveillance Cameras Is More Theater Than Reform

the_conversation

• Florida banned Flock license plate reader cameras from state highways after abuse scandals, but the move affects only a fraction of the nearly 10,000 cameras statewide — the rest keep operating on local roads and private property.
• These cameras are far more powerful than simple plate readers: they can track a vehicle's movements across time and jurisdictions, and Florida officers can search data from over 1,000 agencies nationwide, meaning local camera counts dramatically understate actual surveillance reach.
• Florida has no comprehensive laws governing how police use this data, retention rules have large loopholes, and the records are exempt from public records laws — leaving journalists and watchdogs as the main check on abuse.

650,000 People Are Waiting Nearly Three Years for Medicaid Home Care — and Federal Cuts Could Make It Much Worse

kff

• About 650,000 people are on waiting lists for Medicaid home- and community-based services in 2026, a 7% increase from 2025, with an average wait of 34 months — and people with autism wait over five years on average.
• Three-quarters of those waiting have intellectual or developmental disabilities, and more than half live in states that don't even screen people for eligibility before putting them on a list, making the true scale of unmet need hard to measure.
• The 2025 federal reconciliation law is expected to cut Medicaid funding significantly, and if states respond by capping home care slots, these already-long waiting lists could grow substantially.

In the News

California Used an Antitrust Settlement to Dictate Where Paramount Films Its Movies — and That Should Worry Everyone

itif

• Paramount's merger with Warner Bros. cleared antitrust review in the U.S. and dozens of other countries, with regulators concluding it wouldn't harm competition or consumers.
• California's attorney general challenged the deal anyway, and the resulting settlement goes far beyond antitrust: it mandates domestic filming locations, funnels penalty money to union funds, and creates an oversight board for CNN and CBS News.
• The author's concern isn't just the specific terms — it's that antitrust law is being stretched into a tool for industrial policy, setting a dangerous precedent for how merger law gets used.

Analysis

The households least able to absorb a disaster loss are the ones their insurance leaves most exposed

ny_fed

• Homeowners' insurance deductibles and coverage limits leave households on the hook for 29% of expected losses on average — a design feature that exists to discourage negligence, but one that disproportionately burdens lower-credit-score households.
• New York Fed researchers built a model using millions of insurance contracts and found that while moral hazard costs insurers relatively little, the risk that stays with homeowners is substantial — and concentrates among those with fewer financial resources and properties in high-disaster-risk areas.
• The findings set up a genuine policy dilemma: the same contract features that expose vulnerable households also preserve incentives to maintain properties, making a mandate for fuller coverage a complicated fix.

Also Worth a Look

• The Real Debate Behind the Budget Deficit Isn't About Numbers — It's About Whether Government Should Grow With the Country (equitable_growth)
• What the Supreme Court's Big Climate Case Reveals About the Art of Legal Persuasion (scotusblog)
• Xi Got What He Wanted from His Washington Visit — and the U.S. May Be Running Out of Leverage (brookings)
• The Supreme Court Will Decide Whether the Military Has to Follow Environmental Review Rules Before Blowing Up Munitions in Guam (scotusblog)
• States Are Using AI and Aggressive Tracking to Crack Down on Medicaid Home Care Fraud — But the Tools Could Also Cut Off Vulnerable People (kff)
• Iraqis Are Optimistic About Their New Prime Minister, But Corruption and Unemployment Haven't Gone Away (atlantic_council)
• A Middle East War Is Sending Oil Prices Past $100 a Barrel — Here's What's Driving the Surge (eia)