Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

China's Export Surge Is Hurting Europe More Than You Think — and It's Not Mainly About Tariffs

voxeu

• China's record trade surplus is driven mostly by weak domestic demand pushing manufacturers to export, not by US tariff diversions or subsidies — a finding that shapes how Europe should respond.
• For the euro area, cheaper Chinese imports are nudging consumer prices down (a ~1% cumulative drop in industrial goods prices by 2028), but they're also dampening investment and eroding European export market share in third countries.
• The authors argue Europe needs neither blanket protectionism nor unconditional openness, but targeted de-risking in strategic sectors combined with serious investment in its own competitiveness.

Just One Shared Office Day a Month Boosted Remote Worker Productivity by 8% and Cut Attrition by a Third

voxeu

• A randomized controlled trial at a Turkish call center found that assigning remote workers to come into the office together just one day per month raised productivity by 8% and reduced employee turnover by one-third, with no drop in service quality.
• The gains built gradually over months and persisted after the program ended, suggesting the mechanism was genuine — better peer learning, more feedback, and stronger team bonds — rather than a short-lived novelty effect.
• The program paid for itself fivefold: the costs of transport, meals, and office space were far outweighed by productivity gains and savings from lower recruiting and training costs.

Most Americans Are Fine With School Prayer — As Long As It's Not Required

pew

• A new Pew survey finds that about 60% of Americans support allowing teacher-led prayer in public schools, but only 8% think student participation should be mandatory — the rest want it optional.
• Support for school prayer and religious displays like the Ten Commandments breaks sharply along partisan and religious lines, with Republicans and evangelical Christians strongly in favor and Democrats and the religiously unaffiliated largely opposed.
• The findings land as several states push legislation to bring prayer and religious symbols back into public schools, suggesting politicians backing mandatory prayer are well ahead of where even their own supporters actually stand.

In the News

A right-wing outsider just won Colombia's closest-ever presidential election — and he's promising a dramatic break from the Petro era

atlantic_council

• Abelardo de la Espriella, a pro-business, security-focused conservative, narrowly defeated left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda in Colombia's tightest presidential race ever, winning by less than one percentage point.
• His election is expected to reverse Colombia's drift toward China and repair ties with Washington, while also attracting foreign investment that dried up under outgoing President Gustavo Petro's fiscal mismanagement.
• But his razor-thin margin leaves him without a clear mandate, and his ambitious agenda — including cutting the state by 40%, resuming fracking, and purging Petro-era officials — faces an uphill battle against a divided legislature and likely social unrest.

Analysis

One in Three American Workers Is Now 'Disposable' — and It's Making Companies Weaker, Too

mit_sloan

• MIT economist Paul Osterman argues that roughly 35% of U.S. workers — including not just gig workers but contractors, adjuncts, part-timers, and marginalized employees — now lack job security, benefits, or career development, representing a fundamental break from the postwar employment contract.
• This shift is driven by financial market pressure, AI-fueled uncertainty about future workforce needs, and deliberate employer strategy: companies intentionally create part-time and contingent roles to maintain a workforce with low expectations and high turnover.
• The strategy backfires: disposable workers are far less likely to care about organizational success or put in extra effort, undermining the very performance gains companies seek — suggesting the trend is self-defeating as well as socially harmful.

Also Worth a Look

• Most Americans Worry About Climate Change — But Think They're Almost Alone in Doing So (gallup)
• Turkey Weathered the Hormuz Crisis, But Its Economy Still Lacks a Coherent Strategy (atlantic_council)
• AI Doesn't Have to Kill Jobs — But Companies Have to Choose to Use It Differently (mit_sloan)
• Trump Doesn't Just Ignore Congress — He Seems to Forget It Exists (the_conversation)
• The New Fed Chair Inherits a Stagflation Scare, a Debt Crisis, and a President Who Hates High Interest Rates (hoover)
• Supreme Court reinstates conviction in the Etan Patz murder case, rejecting a new trial over Miranda rights concerns (scotusblog)
• The Supreme Court Is Being Asked to Decide Whether States Can Force Kids to Get Parental Approval Before Using Apps (scotusblog)