Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

The U.S. War Against Iran Likely Cost Around $40 Billion — Here's Where the Money Went

csis

• CSIS estimates the total additional cost of Operation Epic Fury at roughly $40 billion, with munitions accounting for the lion's share at $26 billion — driven by thousands of expensive precision missiles that will need replacing.
• The Pentagon's own estimates of $25–29 billion are lower partly because they exclude base damage, which CSIS puts at $4–9 billion based on satellite imagery analysis of Iranian strikes on U.S. facilities.
• Neither the FY2026 nor proposed FY2027 defense budgets include war costs, meaning Congress will need to find new funding — and early estimates of a trillion-dollar war proved wildly off because the conflict was shorter and cheaper than feared.

Almost Nobody Uses AI for News — and Most Americans Would Trust News Organizations Less If They Did

gallup

• Only 7% of Americans rely on AI tools to get news, placing AI dead last among major news sources, behind even print newspapers and radio.
• A plurality (39%) say any use of AI in news production would reduce their trust outright — meaning there may be no disclosure or verification strategy that wins them over.
• This puts news organizations in a bind: they're rushing to adopt AI to cut costs and stay competitive, but doing so risks further eroding public trust that has already hit historic lows.

Global Views of the U.S. Have Cratered Under Trump — and in Many Countries, They're at Historic Lows

pew

• A Pew survey of 42,000 people across 36 countries finds only 23% have confidence in Trump's world leadership, with no country showing improved views since last year and many at all-time lows for U.S. favorability.
• The share of people who see the U.S. as a reliable partner has collapsed in key allied nations — in Canada, it fell from 83% to 35% since 2022, with similar steep drops across Europe and Asia-Pacific.
• Trust in the U.S. on specific issues — tariffs, Gaza, Ukraine, Iran — is broadly negative, and for the first time, a global majority (56%) says the U.S. does not respect the personal freedoms of its own people.

In the News

After U.S. and Israeli Strikes, Here's How Iran Will Try to Rebuild Its Military — and How to Stop It

csis

• U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2026 badly damaged Iran's navy, missile stockpiles, and weapons production, but absent regime change, Iran will move quickly to rearm using foreign suppliers and smuggling networks.
• With its main reexport route through the UAE disrupted by Iranian attacks on Emirati territory, Iran will likely shift procurement through Pakistan, Caspian Sea routes, and direct sourcing from China.
• The report maps Iran's top procurement priorities — salvage equipment, machine tools, drone and missile components — and argues the U.S. and allies have a narrow window to tighten export controls and choke off these new supply chains before they solidify.

Analysis

Remote Work Has Done More for Disabled Employment Than the ADA Ever Did

aea

• The rise of remote work after COVID boosted full-time employment among physically disabled Americans by 9–11%, accounting for most of their postpandemic employment gains — a result that decades of disability policy failed to achieve.
• The gains came from people entering the workforce, not from unemployed disabled workers finding jobs, suggesting remote work removed barriers like commuting and inflexible working conditions that had kept people out of the labor market entirely.
• Wages in high-remote occupations fell relative to low-remote ones, pointing to increased labor supply — not employer demand — as the main driver, meaning disabled workers themselves are choosing to enter work now that the terms are more manageable.

Also Worth a Look

• People Prefer AI Ethical Advice Over a Famous Human Ethicist — Once They See How Good It Is (wharton)
• How a $15 Billion 'Synthetic' Stablecoin Turned a Tariff Shock into a Crypto Meltdown (ny_fed)
• Most of the World Now Thinks the U.S. Is Bad for Global Stability — and Trust Has Collapsed Even in Allied Nations (pew)
• Globally, More People Trust Putin and Xi Than Trump, Pew Finds (pew)
• Pew Caught Global Opinion Shifting in Real Time After the U.S.-Israel Strike on Iran (pew)
• The Iran War Drove Up Drug Prices by as Much as 87% — and the Effects May Linger for Months (think_global_health)
• The UAE Just Left OPEC — and Its Exit Shrinks the Cartel's Grip on Global Oil Supply (eia)