Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Right-Wing Populists Across Europe and the U.S. Are Far More Pro-Russia and Anti-Zelenskyy Than Their Compatriots

pew

• A 37-country Pew survey finds that supporters of right-wing populist parties in Europe consistently view Russia and Putin more favorably — and Zelenskyy less favorably — than people who oppose those parties, with the gaps most dramatic in Hungary and Germany.
• In the U.S., the ideological divide is stark: liberals are nearly twice as likely as conservatives to view NATO favorably, and 38 points more likely to express confidence in Zelenskyy.
• The pattern isn't universal — in Latin America, the left is sometimes less supportive of Zelenskyy, and in Israel, the left is actually more pro-Russia than the right.

The Iran War Left Saudi Arabia Doubting Both Its U.S. Alliance and Any Deal with Israel

csis

• The U.S.-Iran war of 2026 blindsided Saudi Arabia — Washington launched it without consulting Riyadh, left Gulf states scrambling for air defenses, and then nearly dragged the kingdom into renewed conflict with a poorly conceived naval escort operation Saudi Arabia had to publicly block.
• The war paradoxically both deepened Saudi dependence on U.S. military support and damaged Saudi confidence in the U.S. as a reliable, predictable partner — making a formal mutual defense treaty look less attractive, not more.
• Saudi-Israeli normalization, already stalled over Palestinian statehood, took another hit: association with Israel increased Saudi exposure to Iranian attacks, and Israel is now widely seen in the Arab world as the region's chief destabilizing force, not Iran.

Most NATO Members Still Back the Alliance, But Confidence in Zelenskyy Is Surprisingly Shaky

pew

• A new Pew survey of 37 countries finds NATO remains popular across most member states, with a median 65% favorable rating, though sharp partisan divides persist — especially in the U.S., where 75% of Democrats vs. 42% of Republicans view it positively.
• Russia and Putin remain deeply unpopular in Europe and the West, but majorities in several South and Southeast Asian countries — including India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh — view Russia favorably, and those numbers are rising.
• Zelenskyy is a surprisingly divisive figure globally: a majority across all 37 countries lack confidence in him, and even within NATO allies, opinions split sharply along ideological lines, with right-wing populist supporters especially negative.

In the News

Every NATO Ally Now Spends 2% of GDP on Defense — but the New Target Is 3.5%, and Most Are Far Behind

csis

• For the first time, all NATO members have hit the 2% GDP defense spending target set in 2014, driven largely by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a 54% real-terms increase in European defense spending in just three years.
• Last year's Hague Summit raised the bar dramatically, committing allies to spend 3.5% of GDP on traditional defense plus an additional 1.5% on security-related areas like critical infrastructure by 2035 — only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia currently meet the new core threshold.
• At this week's Ankara Summit, the U.S. is expected to keep up pressure on allies to show credible plans for hitting their Hague commitments, with Defense Secretary Hegseth suggesting U.S. contributions to NATO's common funds could be made contingent on allies following through.

Analysis

When banks charged customers to hold deposits, Danes spent the money instead of hoarding cash

voxeu

• A study of Denmark's experiment with negative deposit rates found that households sharply reduced their bank balances — mostly by spending more, not by withdrawing cash.
• The consumption response was surprisingly large (up to 1% of aggregate private consumption), and people reacted more strongly to rate cuts below zero than to equivalent cuts in positive territory.
• Surveys reveal the drivers: loss aversion and anger at perceived bank unfairness — not standard economic logic — explain why zero is a psychological threshold that changes how households behave.

Also Worth a Look

• One in Nine American Adults Now Takes a GLP-1 Drug for Weight Loss, and Obesity Rates Are Falling (gallup)
• Russia Is Reviving Medieval Saints to Sell Its Birth-Rate Crisis as a Spiritual Mission (the_conversation)
• Europe Should Use the Ankara NATO Summit to Plan for Its Own Defense — With or Without the US (csis)
• The Supreme Court Has Quietly Done a Remarkable Job of Reining In Trump (scotusblog)
• A Category 5 Typhoon Just Devastated a Tiny U.S. Island — and It's Still Heading for Taiwan and Japan (yale_climate)
• Sanctions Are Losing Their Financial Grip, So Countries Are Stopping Ships Instead (the_conversation)
• H-1B Renewals Are on Pace for a Record High — Even as Trump Tries to Restrict the Program (eig)