Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Hiring more foreign workers doesn't cost Americans jobs — it creates them, new research finds

peterson

• A study using a randomized lottery for H-2B visas — which cover low-skill, nonfarm jobs like landscaping, hospitality, and seafood packing — found that firms who won access to more foreign workers increased production, investment, and profits.
• Crucially, hiring H-2B workers had zero or positive effects on US employment overall, and a clearly positive effect in rural areas, because foreign and domestic workers complement each other more than they compete.
• The findings also suggest H-2B workers are not substitutes for undocumented labor, undercutting a common argument for restricting legal immigration pathways.

MicroStrategy Produces Nothing, Holds Bitcoin, and Has Outperformed Every S&P 500 Stock — Here's Why That Should Worry You

harvard_corpgov

• MicroStrategy (now "Strategy Inc") has reinvented itself as a company whose entire business model is issuing stock at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, then using the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin — a self-referential loop that produces no goods, services, or operating cash flow.
• The model works as long as investors keep paying a premium over the per-share value of its Bitcoin, making it arithmetically accretive for existing shareholders while new shareholders effectively subsidize them — but a late-2025 crypto crash showed how quickly the whole thing can unwind.
• A forthcoming law review article argues the model poses novel risks to retail investors (who own a lot of the stock) and to the broader economy, since it encourages companies to redirect capital from innovation into Bitcoin hoarding, and calls for index providers and the SEC to close loopholes that have inadvertently boosted demand for the model.

Private Credit Is Under Stress — and Individual Investors May Be the Most Exposed

econofact

• Private credit funds — which lend to businesses outside the banking system — have grown explosively over the past decade and are now attracting ordinary retail investors, not just institutions.
• Some funds, especially those exposed to software companies, are facing rising withdrawals and markdowns, raising questions about whether the boom was overextended.
• Experts don't yet see a systemic 2008-style crisis, but the sector's 'semiliquid' structure hasn't been truly stress-tested, and less sophisticated investors with less financial cushion face real risks if the slow-motion run continues.

In the News

The Supreme Court Gave Trump Enormous Power This Term — Then Stopped Him at the Edge

scotusblog

• The Supreme Court's 2025-26 term handed Trump major wins on executive power, immigration, and political gerrymandering, while also delivering high-profile defeats on tariffs and birthright citizenship.
• The court's rulings expanded presidential control over the executive branch, made it harder for asylum seekers and TPS holders to stay in the U.S., and issued election-map decisions likely to benefit Republicans in 2026.
• The pattern that emerged: a court willing to broadly empower the president, but with two or three Republican-appointed justices occasionally joining liberals to block Trump's most constitutionally aggressive moves.

Analysis

The War on Proxy Advisors Is Built on Bad Economics

harvard_corpgov

• Proxy advisors like ISS and Glass Lewis have become political targets — from Trump executive orders to state lawsuits — but the article argues most reform proposals misdiagnose the problem and would likely make corporate governance worse, not better.
• The authors explain that proxy advisors exist because institutional investors must vote on thousands of proposals and have little incentive to research each one carefully; proxy advisors pool that demand and lower costs, even if imperfectly.
• Rather than weakening proxy advisors (which would just shift power toward corporate management), the authors propose two fixes: automatic flags on high-stakes votes to direct investor attention where it matters, and a fiduciary floor to prevent pure algorithmic rubber-stamping, especially as AI enters the space.

Also Worth a Look

• Super Typhoon Bavi Is Barreling Toward Guam — and It's Part of a Troubling Global Trend (yale_climate)
• How Tariffs and Currency Shifts Actually Hit Consumer Prices — and Why It Matters for Trade Policy (nber)
• Inflation Expectations May Be Less Anchored Than Central Banks Think (nber)
• The World Is Building Up Dangerous Financial Imbalances Again — and This Time the Risks Are Hiding in New Places (voxeu)
• Europe's Defense Spending Boom Will Enrich Some Regions Far More Than Others (voxeu)
• Standardized Tests May Actually Help Identify Talented Low-Income Students — If Colleges Use Them Right (nber)
• Men who grew up watching others struggle to find work are less likely to work themselves — and the effect lasts for decades (voxeu)